Deutsche Bank Championship Betting Preview
Posted on August 28, 2013 Leave a Comment
Tiger Woods (Courtesy: myophoto)
The FedEx Cup playoffs resume this week, as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Boston for the regular Friday to Monday event, the Deutsche Bank Championship.
2013 Deutsche Bank Championship Fact Sheet
- Course: TPC Boston
- Location: Norton, Massachusetts
- Yardage: 7,214 yards, par 71
- Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose
TV Schedule:
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Sunday – 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Monday – 11:30 AM to 1:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 1:30 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Key Storyline This Week
After this week’s event, the race for the FedEx Cup will be down to just 70 players, as another 30 will be going home instead of heading to Illinois for the BMW Championship in two weeks. Who are the notable players currently sitting outside of the top 70?
- K.J. Choi (74th)
- Ian Poulter (77th)
- Robert Garrigus (82nd)
- Stewart Cink (85th)
- Martin Kaymer (90th)
- Ernie Els (91st)
- Bo Van Pelt (97th)
- Camilo Villegas (100th)
You’d have to think that some of these players will have a good enough week, but for some of them at the bottom like Villegas and Van Pelt, they’ll need to finish just outside of the top 10 to move on and have an outside chance of grabbing the $10 million first place prize.
Obviously the other big story is the health of Tiger Woods. Tiger holds the lead in the FedEx Cup at the moment, and even if he missed the cut here this week, he’d fall no lower than 4th in the standings, but how is his back? He was in visible pain on the weekend at the Barclays despite his runner-up finish, and while he’s expected to tee it up again this week, he hasn’t confirmed his plans at the moment.
Considering his spot is very secure and the added week off between now and the BMW, he would have a solid chunk of time to rest if he decided to sit out. One thing to keep in mind is that the tournament does benefit his foundation, so that could be playing into his decision. He did pull out of good friend Notah Begay’s Wednesday pro-am, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.
TPC Boston
TPC Boston is one of the newest venues on the PGA Tour, having only been used since 2003, the same year that Arnold Palmer finished the original design. Since then, Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon finished a re-design, but it hasn’t changed much in terms of the final score of the winner. Every year, the winning score has been double digits under par, ranging from Olin Browne’s 14-under in 2005, to the joint record to par of 22-under held by Vijay Singh (2008) and Charley Hoffman (2010). Last year, Rory McIlroy was able to win with a score of 20-under par, so what we’re looking at is a course that is known to be a little easier for the pros to navigate. The other thing to mention is that TPC Boston’s greens can be difficult, so keep that in mind when you’re looking at potential plays.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Tiger Woods: We talked about Tiger’s health above, but it clearly didn’t do much to affect his performance, as he finished as the runner-up to Adam Scott on Sunday, but it’s tough to put a ton of confidence on anyone when they look to be in that much pain, especially at the lack of value. One thing to note is his track record here at the course. He’s made eight appearances, finishing inside the top-11 seven times, with a win and two runner-ups.
- Adam Scott: Scott’s run of good form continued with his win on Sunday, giving him four straight top-15 finishes, and much like Tiger, he’s enjoyed playing TPC Boston, with a win, runner-up and three other top-10’s in eight tries.
- Phil Mickelson: Mickelson’s final round 65 at Liberty National left him just two shots back of Scott, but did get him his first top-10 since winning the Open Championship in July. He’s a little too inconsistent for my liking right now, but he did win here back in 2007 and finished tied for 4th last year.
- Rory McIlroy: The final result hasn’t been great, but McIlroy has been playing much better as of late. He’s on a run of 16 consecutive rounds of 72 or better, which is the first time he’s done that since February and March of last year. Obviously feels comfortable on the course as well based on last year’s win.
- Justin Rose: Rose hasn’t had the best run at TPC Boston over the years, which makes a little bit of sense when you consider that the putter has occasionally been his achillies heel. Two top-10 finishes back in 2003 and 2006, but since then, he’s only broken 70 in two rounds on the course. On the plus side, he’s coming off of a runner-up finish to Scott at the Barclays.
Suggested Plays
Rory McIlroy (Best Odds 16-1 at 888 Sport)
Taking him for the reasons mentioned above, and the books are starting to take notice with his best value coming in at about 16-1. He really is looking better at this point, and I think it could be his time to get that first win of 2013.
Jim Furyk (Best Odds 35-1 at BetVictor)
Anyone who’s been reading this blog for any length of time knows that I’m not the biggest Furyk supporter out there, but he’s been on fire recently with four straight top-10 finishes. He’s also finished inside the top-10 here in five of his eight appearances, so he’s comfortable at TPC Boston. At this point, we can’t trust him to close anything out, but I think he’s near the top of the board on the weekend.
Zach Johnson (Best Odds 41-1 at Betfair)
If Furyk’s been on a good run, Johnson’s on a great one, with five consecutive top-10 finishes, which allowed him to take last week off and not have to worry about his position in the FedEx Cup. Prior to that run, he wasn’t having a great 2013, and one of the reasons was that his usually strong putting just wasn’t working for him. That’s turning around a little bit here, and with his form, he seems like a good bet at roughly 40-1.
Rickie Fowler (Best Odds 61-1 at Betfair)
Fowler has never played well here, with his best finish coming in 2010 when he ended up tied for 41st, but much like Rose, his putter has always been an issue. This year though has been a different story, as his putter has been working, despite the fact that he hasn’t won a tournament since the Wells Fargo last May. He’s finished inside the top-25 in six of his last seven starts, including last week’s T9.
Graham DeLaet (Best Odds 75-1 at BETDAQ)
DeLaet got back on track last week with his runner-up finish at the Barclays, which moved him into 7th in the FedEx Cup standings and put him inside the top-10 for the International Presidents Cup team. His place in the BMW is already secure, as even if he misses the cut, he can only fall to 25th overall. You might think that means he has little to play for this week, but he’s a very streaky player, so I’m thinking another good performance is in order here. His putter is always the big question mark, but he rolled it well last week, so I’m hoping it continues.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 142-1 at BETDAQ)
Poulter is one of those guys that needs a good performance to keep going in the FedEx Cup, so my thought is that it might motivate him a little more this week. He’s had a rough year to say the least, as evidenced by his odds coming into the event, but he can still get as hot as just about anyone in the field. At that kind of price, there’s probably no better value on the course this week.
Adam Scott wins the Barclays
Posted on August 25, 2013 Leave a Comment
Adam Scott (Courtesy: Hone Morihana)
Adam Scott fired a final round 66 Sunday at Liberty National to win the Barclays over a host of challengers, including Tiger Woods and Justin Rose.
What Happened
Scott entered the final round six shots back of the lead held by Gary Woodland and Matt Kuchar, and got hot early, with birdies on three consecutive holes from 5-7. Two more birdies on the back got Scott to 11-under par, a clubhouse lead which he didn’t think was going to be good enough to win outright. Kuchar struggled from the outset, ending up with a 7-over par 78, but Scott still had some tough challengers to deal with. Rose was the first to have a chance, but he three-putted the last hole to end up one back of Scott.
Woods was next, having gotten back to 10-under par with birdies on 16 and 17 despite constant back trouble that had him in tremendous pain all day. He would need a birdie on the last to force a playoff, but his 27-footer on the final hole ended up just an inch short of the hole. When Woodland failed to make birdie on the closing hole, Scott had his second win of 2013.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Adam Scott -11
- T2. Graham DeLaet -10
- T2. Justin Rose -10
- T2. Tiger Woods -10
- T2. Gary Woodland -10
What The Win Means For Scott
Scott moves to number two behind Woods in the FedEx Cup standings, and is pretty much assured of getting to the Tour Championship in a few weeks. Realistically, there isn’t a whole lot left for Scott to do after his win at the Masters back in April, but a win like this is always nice to have and it gives him a chance to win the $10 million prize at the end of the FedEx Cup, especially if Tiger can’t finish it out due to his back injury.
Tiger’s Back Injury
Anything that Tiger Woods does is big news, so let’s take a look at the back injury story from this week. He claims that it happened when sleeping on a bad mattress before the tournament this week, and as soon as this came out, people were out to criticize him saying that he probably wasn’t hurt. I don’t usually like to get into this sort of thing, but the pictures tell a pretty obvious story about the injury. This is what happened on the 13th today:
Yeah, I’d say it’s legit.
It’s pretty crazy to think that he played as well as he did with his back in this kind of shape. The story now becomes whether he’ll finish out the FedEx Cup run, leading into the President’s Cup. After the round, he said he wasn’t sure if he would be continuing, so that’s the main storyline to watch heading into the Deutsche Bank next week.
Who’s In, Who’s Out
The top 100 in the FedEx Cup are moving on to the Deutsche Bank next week, and there was some pretty significant movement in both directions. Graham DeLaet jumped 27 spots to number 7, while Woodland moved 50 spots into the top 10. Camilo Villegas got in as the 100th player when Aaron Baddeley bogeyed the last three holes to end up in the 101st spot.
Kevin Chappell’s Scorecard
Chappell had a chance to win his first PGA Tour event on Sunday, but his back nine kinda got rid of that. Tough finish.
Other Notes
- Notables to miss the cut: Dustin Johnson, Graeme McDowell, Brandt Snedeker, Billy Horschel, Ian Poulter, Ernie Els and Angel Cabrera.
- Other notable finishes: Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk (T6), Nick Watney and Rickie Fowler (T9), Bubba Watson (T13), Webb Simpson (T15), Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar (T19), Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas, Hunter Mahan, Jason Day (T25), Keegan Bradley (T33), Jason Dufner and Sergio Garcia (T37), Luke Donald (T41), Henrik Stenson (T43) and Martin Kaymer (T50).
- DeLaet has a good chance now to get into the President’s Cup with this performance. He’d be the first Canadian to do so since Mike Weir in 2009.
The Barclays Betting Preview
Posted on August 20, 2013 Leave a Comment
Tiger Woods (Courtesy: myophoto)
The 2013 FedEx Cup Playoffs are set to begin this week, as the PGA Tour heads back to Liberty National Golf Club in New Jersey for the Barclays.
2013 The Barclays Fact Sheet
- Course: Liberty National Golf Club
- Location: Jersey City, New Jersey
- Yardage: 7,353 yards, par 71
- Defending Champion: Nick Watney
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
- Sunday – 12:00 PM to 1:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 2:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
Key Storyline This Week
As mentioned above, this week is the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, with the top-125 point getters from the season playing this week in New Jersey. It’s a progressive point system, with the top-100 advancing to next week, followed by the top-70 and finally the top-30 going to the Tour Championship in a month’s time. Most of the top players are here this week, trying to play and move up the ladder with the hopes of claiming the $10 million first place prize at the end of the line. Others like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, who have both played more than usual in recent weeks, are opting to sit this week out, knowing that they are pretty much assured of a spot going into the BMW Championship in a few weeks.
With his five wins and two other top-10 finishes, Tiger Woods has built up a pretty substantial lead in the FedEx Cup, and even if he misses the cut here this week, he won’t fall lower than fourth in the overall standings. When the PGA Tour introduced the FedEx Cup a few years ago, it hoped to bring more interest to the events later in the season, and while it hasn’t taken off the way they had hoped, it has added a little more intrigue to a time in the calendar when the big name players used to stay on the sidelines. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s much better than it used to be.
Liberty National Golf Club
Liberty National is one of the few newer courses on the PGA Tour schedule, having only been built by Robert Cupp and Tom Kite in 2006. It’s the first time that the tour has been back here since 2009 when Heath Slocum came away victorious, and the course will play differently than it did four years ago. Back then, the course was criticized for being overly difficult and not too appealing, with Tiger using the word “interesting” to describe the way it played. Being built on a landfill, the jokes also flew about this being what you get when you build on this kind of property.
To their credit, Liberty National took the criticisms and set out on improving the course. 14 of the 18 holes have seen changes in the last few years, with most of the tweaks coming on the greens. Five of the greens were completely rebuilt, and an additional six were reconstructed. Fairways have also been widened and tee boxes altered, so the course might be a little different than the players remember when they tee it up on Thursday morning. The course also likes to boast that 15 of the 18 holes have completely unobstructed views of Lady Liberty, so if that’s your kinda thing, you’ll see plenty of that on the broadcasts this week. You can check out the story of the course in the embedded video below.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Tiger Woods: Another week with Tiger as the favourite, and even though he wasn’t thrilled with the course setup back in 2009, he still finished as the joint runner-up to Slocum, one shot behind at 8-under par. He’s coming off of an underwhelming performance at the PGA Championship, but he’s still the best player in the field and the roughly 6-1 price on him right now reflects that.
- Adam Scott: The Masters champ has been on a good run recently, finishing inside the top-15 in his last three starts, including a T-5 at the PGA. He didn’t fare too well here in 2009, making the cut but struggling to finish tied for 58th, breaking par in just one of his four rounds.
- Henrik Stenson: He’s the hottest player in the world right now, with two runner-ups and two third place finishes in his last four starts. His last win came in Europe back in November, but he’s still seeking his first PGA Tour win since that breakout performance at the 2009 PLAYERS. Great ball striker, but didn’t play here back in 2009, so that’s always a factor when trying to predict a winner.
- Rory McIlroy: It’s amazing what one tournament can do for you. After a good run at the PGA, most of the golf world is of the opinion that he is ready to turn his “poor” season around. Also didn’t play here back in 2009, and is going into the tournament ranked 49th in the FedEx Cup. He’s going to need some good finishes if he wants to make it all the way to the Tour Championship.
- Phil Mickelson: Mickelson is actually a member at Liberty National, but that didn’t help him back in 2009, as he ended up tied for 52nd after rounds of 75 and 74 on Friday and Saturday sunk his chances. Had a dreadful week at the PGA, highlighted by a third round 78 where he looked completely out of sync. Still though, he’s had a great year and he knows the course better than anyone in the field, so he has to be considered a threat.
Suggested Plays
Matt Kuchar (Best Odds 33-1 at Ladbrokes)
Kuchar seems to be flying under the radar a little bit here, which is pretty much par for the course when it comes to him. He holds the current record for consecutive cuts made on the PGA Tour with 23, and probably has the quietest two win season in recent memory. Tied for 28th here back in 2009.
Keegan Bradley (Best Odds 40-1 at Sky Bet)
Finished as the runner-up to Tiger at the Bridgestone and followed that up with a good performance at the PGA, including a really nice Sunday 66. He’s made it to the Tour Championship in both of his tries, but will need some good performances to get there this year. It’s his first appearance at Liberty National.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 70-1 at Unibet)
Poulter has had a tough season, especially after the run he had at the Ryder Cup. It was a performance that many saw as his breakthrough event, but it hasn’t translated to the regular stroke play tournaments. He was under par in three of his four rounds here back in 2009, finishing tied for 9th, so there should be some comfort at the course.
Rickie Fowler (Best Odds 85-1 at BETDAQ)
Fowler enters the week 42nd in the FedEx Cup despite not having the kind of year that he would have liked, but he’s on a run of good form. He’s quietly put together top-25 finishes in six of his last seven starts, and has really been striking the ball well. The putter, which has historically been a weak point, has actually been very solid for much of the year. Much like Bradley, he’s making his debut appearance at Liberty National.
Graham DeLaet (Best Odds 168-1 at BETDAQ)
A few weeks ago, you couldn’t get DeLaet for anything better than 30-1, but four rough weeks in a row and two missed cuts later, and DeLaet is back on the other side of the fence. He’s been one of the best ball strikers on the tour this season, and the number here is simply too high to pass up.
Charles Howell III (Best Odds 218-1 at Betfair)
Much like DeLaet, this is a look at someone who shouldn’t be available at this price. He was looking good last week at the Wyndham until he was disqualified for using a non-conforming driver, as a little dial fell out of the bottom of the club. Finished tied for 70th here back in 2009, but has had a good season, currently ranking in at number 27 in the FedEx Cup.
Patrick Reed wins the Wyndham Championship
Posted on August 18, 2013 1 Comment
Patrick Reed (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
Patrick Reed was able to defeat Jordan Spieth in a playoff on Sunday to claim his first PGA Tour victory in Greensboro at the Wyndham Championship.
What Happened
Spieth entered the day one shot back of Reed and John Huh, and was able to come home in 31 on the back nine to get into the clubhouse at 14-under par. Huh was able to stay at 14-under par until he came to the 17th hole where back to back bogeys would put him at 12-under and two back of Spieth. Reed was able to hang on with a pair of pars after a bogey on 16, and tied Spieth in the clubhouse at 14-under.
Both men went back to the 18th to start the playoff, and Reed appeared to gain an immediate advantage when Spieth had to pitch out from the pinestraw and couldn’t go at the green in two. Reed’s approach landed within eight feet for birdie, while Spieth was 26 feet away for par. Spieth would drain the long par putt, and when Reed missed for birdie, they moved to the par-4 10th.
This time, Reed ended up getting into trouble from the tee, ending up dangerously close to the out of bounds. He hit a provisional just in case, but he was able to play his original and after watching Spieth put his approach to about ten feet, Reed stepped up and amazingly stuck his approach to seven feet. Spieth wasn’t able to convert the birdie, but Reed was, and it gave him his first PGA Tour win.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Patrick Reed -14 *wins in playoff*
- 2. Jordan Spieth -14
- T3. Brian Harman -12
- T3. John Huh -12
- T5. Matt Jones -11
- T5. Matt Every -11
- T5. Zach Johnson -11
What The Win Means For Reed
When I suggested Reed earlier this week in my betting preview at 100-1, it was on the basis that in a weaker field, it didn’t make sense that a player who was playing as well as Reed had been in the last few weeks, was available at that price. If you’ve been a regular PGA Tour watcher in 2013, you’ve definitely seen Reed near the top of the leaderboard along with his wife Justine who caddies for him. At 23 years old, Reed should be around for a long time, and the win does make him exempt on the PGA Tour for the next two years, as well as gets him into the Masters for the first time in 2014. That should be a pretty big deal for a guy who went to Augusta State and was a big part of their golf team while he was enrolled.
In the near term, it puts him in a good spot for the remainder of the season with the FedEx Cup Playoffs starting next week. He’s currently sitting in 22nd place after the win today, so as long as he doesn’t do anything disastrous in the first few playoff events, we could see him advance all the way to the Tour Championship. The first win is always huge, and now Patrick Reed has that first victory. I don’t think we can expect the floodgates to open with him like we do with Spieth, but he’s impressed a lot of people with his game this year.
Charles Howell’s DQ
Charles Howell was in a tie for 10th at 6-under par after Friday’s second round when he was told that he was being disqualified for using a non-conforming driver under Rule 4-1a. Howell was warming up with his new TaylorMade SLDR on the range before the round when a tiny dial on the bottom of his club head fell off, and that’s what made it illegal. He called TaylorMade before teeing off to see if it would affect performance, and he was assured that it wouldn’t one way or the other, so he kept it in the bag. Apparently the PGA Tour was alerted to the potential infraction by a USGA member. Not sure how that happened, but I guess that’s a moot point. Howell was told of his DQ ahead of Saturday’s third round, and he released a statement about the whole thing:
“The small toe-cap (weighing less than a gram) came off the driver head during my warm-up for the second round in Greensboro. Prior to teeing off, I spoke to the guys at TaylorMade about the toe-cap coming off to be sure that it wouldn’t impact the performance of the club. I was assured it would not effect the club’s performance. The idea that the club would no longer be conforming, because of the missing toe-cap, never entered my mind.”
For what it’s worth, Howell isn’t taking the Jeff Overton approach to things and blaming everyone except himself for this mess. It just sucks for a guy who coming into the week was 26th in the FedEx Cup and had a good chance to improve that placement after a good first two days. It’s definitely gotten to the point where the Rules of Golf have become far too big when players are getting DQ’d for things like this, but that’s not likely to change at any point soon.
Other Notes
- Notables to miss the cut: Brandt Snedeker, David Lynn, Carl Pettersson, Nick Watney, Peter Hanson, Jimmy Walker, David Lingmerth, Roberto Castro, Bud Cauley, Paul Casey and Padraig Harrington.
- Other notable finishes: Webb Simpson and Robert Garrigus (T11), Hideki Matsuyama (15th), David Toms (T16), Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer and Bill Haas (T20), Tim Clark (T26), Sergio Garcia (T29), Geoff Ogilvy and Boo Weekley (T37).
- Pretty sure that Spieth has a President’s Cup spot locked up now with this performance. There’s almost no chance that Fred Couples leaves him off the team.
- That mid-season switch that Reed did from Nike to Callaway gear seems to be working out pretty well for him, I’d say.
- Another week and another tournament where weather gets in the way, causing the PGA Tour to not show the finish live. Unfortunately, this isn’t likely to change anytime soon.
- Pretty anti-climactic in terms of FedEx Cup movement this week, as nobody moved in or out of the top-125.
- When asked about the usual 10% cut the caddie receives, Justine Reed gave this response:
Justine Reed, caddie/wife of Patrick, was asked how much will her take be. “I’m getting all of it,” she said. “I’m kidding.” @WyndhamChamp
— John Dell (@johndellWSJ) August 18, 2013
Wyndham Championship Betting Preview
Posted on August 14, 2013 Leave a Comment
Photo courtesy Jim Epler
Sergio Garcia is set to defend his title this week in Greensboro, North Carolina as the PGA Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship.
2013 Wyndham Championship Fact Sheet
- Course: Sedgefield Country Club
- Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
- Yardage: 7,117 yards, par 70
- Defending Champion: Sergio Garcia
- Five Consensus Favourites: Brandt Snedeker, Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Bill Haas
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 2:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 2:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM ET (CBS)
- Sunday – 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
Key Storyline This Week
It might be hard to believe, but we’re actually only one week away from the FedEx Cup playoffs. Now, while it’s not exactly the most exciting thing in sports, I’ll give the PGA Tour credit for trying something here and it does help boost an event like the Wyndham, which typically doesn’t garner a ton of attention. So, what does it all mean? This is the last chance for players to improve their standing, or in the case of some players, to get into the playoffs. Players need to get to the 125th spot on the FedEx Cup points list to qualify for the playoffs, and they need to keep playing well from there to advance. The top 125 make it to the Barclays, followed by the top 100 going to Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship and the top 70 will get into the BMW Championship in Chicago. The top 30 then make it to the Tour Championship in Atlanta, and will play for a $10 million first place prize.
Who are the biggest names outside the top 125 right now? Peter Hanson, Padraig Harrington, Bud Cauley, Vijay Singh and David Toms are probably the most notable ones. The good news is that a win by anyone in the field this week ensures that they’ll be inside the top 125, but a lot of names will still be outside that number even if they finish inside the top 10 this week. Does that mean that we should be paying more attention to players who need to win to keep their seasons going? Perhaps, and Arjun Atwal’s win here back in 2010 allowed him to keep playing, but realistically, you should still follow all of the standard procedures when betting this week.
Sedgefield Country Club
It’s back to back weeks for short Donald Ross designed courses, with Oak Hill last week and now Sedgefield. Historically, Sedgefield has been a course that rewards the best putters, with the winner of the event over the last five years ranking no worse than fifth in putting average. Yes, that even includes Sergio, who was quite hot on the new Bermuda greens last year. Now, despite the change to Bermuda, the greens still run around 12 on the stimpmeter and they are also some of the smaller greens on the PGA Tour, so there is a premium on ball striking as well. Typically, Sedgefield yields a lot of birdies, especially since returning in 2008 for the first time since 1976. In the five years that Sedgefield has hosted since 2008, the winning scores have been -21, -16, -20, -18 and -18. So, what we’re looking for are guys who have an added ability to go low.
The toughest hole on the course has always been the closing hole, a 507-yard par 4 that sees the approach play uphill into a green that is well protected by bunkers on all sides. Over the last five years, it has played to an average of 4.29 strokes. The forecast is calling for a lot of rain on the weekend as well, so we could be in for another tournament that sees massive delays. If that happens, hopefully the PGA Tour decides to do something about the tee times for the weekend rounds.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Brandt Snedeker: Snedeker won the Wyndham back in 2007, the last year that Forest Oaks held before going back to Sedgefield, but he’s had some success here too, with back-to-back top 10 finishes in 2009 and 2010. His FedEx Cup spot is locked up and it’d be tough for him not to make it all the way to Atlanta, so he doesn’t have a ton to play for here this week. Since winning in Canada three weeks ago, he had a T33 at the Bridgestone and a T66 at the PGA, with no sub-70 rounds in eight tries.
- Webb Simpson: Since missing the cut here back in 2009, Simpson has three top-25 finishes, including a win in 2011. It’s been a disappointing season for Simpson after last year’s U.S. Open win, and he hasn’t had a top-10 since the Travelers back in June. At a quick glance, one problem that I see is the variance between his high and low rounds in each tournament. Over the last four events, the difference has been 9, 11, 7 and 9 shots between those two. It’s tough to win like that.
- Zach Johnson: Johnson is one of the hottest players in the world right now, as he’s on a streak of four consecutive top 10 finishes, with 13 of his 16 rounds being played at par or better. He doesn’t have a win to show for all of that, but with the kind of putter he is, that run could be coming to an end here.
- Sergio Garcia: To say Sergio loves this place would be an understatement. In addition to his win here last year, he finished in solo fourth at his lone other appearance on the PGA Tour, missing out on a playoff by just one stroke. He also played here back in 1998 on the Nike Tour, picking up a third place finish. Played well last week on Thursday and Friday at Oak Hill before blowing up, but here’s your surprising stat of the day: Sergio actually leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting.
- Bill Haas: Haas has a pair of top 10’s at Sedgefield in his career, and has never shot a round above 71 in his sixteen times around the course. He’s got four top-25’s in his last five events, including his win at the AT&T National.
Suggested Plays
Zach Johnson (Best Odds 16-1 at 888 Sport)
Suggesting him based on all of the reasons mentioned above. He’s only played here twice in his career, once coming back on the Buy.com Tour back in 2000 and he hasn’t had the best success here, but he’s playing too well to ignore at the moment.
David Toms (Best Odds 50-1 at Spreadex)
Toms probably had the quietest T7 in recent major championship history last week at the PGA Championship, as I’m not sure he was ever shown on the broadcast by either TNT or CBS. It was also his best finish of the year so far, a week after his previous best finish was recorded in Reno. He’s a good putter who could be starting to get hot, so I like him on an each-way bet this week.
Peter Hanson (Best Odds 80-1 at Coral)
Hanson’s on my list for most disappointing players of the 2013 season, as I was looking forward to his move over from the European Tour and he really hasn’t played well at all. As mentioned above, he’s currently outside the top 125, so he’ll need a good week to get into the playoffs, and his talent level suggests that 80-1 is a little crazy. When he’s on, he’s one of the best putters in the world, so I’m hoping that comes through this week.
Patrick Reed (Best Odds 100-1 at bwin)
Pretty much just a form bet here, as Reed is coming off of back to back top 10 finishes, and has really had quite a good year. He’s been near the top of the leaderboard in several tournaments, and in a field that’s a little short on talent, he shouldn’t be available at this kind of price with the way he’s been playing.
Jerry Kelly (Best Odds 117-1 at BETDAQ)
Kelly has taken the last month off, but he did finish tied for 4th in his last time out at the John Deere, just missing the playoff by one stroke. In four previous appearances at Sedgefield, he has two top-10’s and he’s broken 70 in 15 of his 16 rounds.
Stewart Cink (Best Odds 175-1 at Unibet)
Cink has never played Sedgefield, but he typically does well on courses like this. His season has been pretty good to this point, especially in comparison to his years since winning the Open Championship. I don’t think he wins this week, but at this kind of a price, he’s worth a shot on an each-way bet.
Report: PGA Tour makes “audacious” bid for European Tour
Posted on August 13, 2013 Leave a Comment
For years, Miguel Angel Jimenez has stayed in Europe, only coming to North America for big events. Courtesy: http://www.tourprogolfclubs.com
Well, this is a bit of interesting news, isn’t it? James Corrigan from the Daily Telegraph has the details, and I recommend the read. The gist of it all, not surprisingly, comes down to money, as the purses on the PGA Tour have consistently dwarfed those that are given out in Europe, even for their biggest events. The European Tour has been struggling financially, which has led to the lower purses in recent years.
Corrigan cites the example of the 100th highest paid players on each tour, with Richard Bland collecting roughly $264,000 in Europe, while Martin Kaymer has picked up over $785,000 on the PGA Tour. For the record, Bland isn’t exactly struggling financially, but you can see why so many of Europe’s best players have decided to make the trip over to North America when that much money is on the table. Guys like Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Ian Poulter have all been playing less and less in Europe, and while they sometimes say that it has to do with preparing for the major championships considering that three of the four are held here, you’d have to think that the finances has played a part in this as well.
So, why would the PGA Tour be interested in buying the European Tour? It’s an added layer in their attempt to conquer the golf landscape, that’s for sure. They already purchased the Canadian Tour last year and re-branded it to go along with their Latin American Tour, so this would solidify their dominance without question. The interesting thing that Corrigan brings up though is the desire for the PGA Tour to get in on the Ryder Cup, which is currently a joint operation between the European Tour and the PGA of America. The sheer amount of money that the Ryder Cup brings in could be worth it alone for the PGA Tour, so it makes sense from that end as well.
What would this mean in the grand scheme of things? Nobody’s saying anything right now, but PGA Tour Canada and PGA Tour Latinoamerica have kept pretty much the same schedule, and are being run as usual, so if this were to happen, the European Tour might just operate independently under the PGA Tour umbrella. Some kind of hybrid tour would be interesting, especially if it meant that the best players got to play on Europe’s best courses like Wentworth and Le Golf National, but that is probably needlessly complicated, at least for now.
For their part, the PGA Tour isn’t saying much about the whole thing.
PGA Tour to buy EuroTour? PGA Tour communications chief Ty Votaw: “We don’t have any comment on these stories.” Not exactly a flat denial.
— Steve Elling (@EllingYelling) August 13, 2013
I won’t be surprised one way or the other, but Elling’s right, that isn’t a denial of the story. I’m assuming we’re going to be hearing more about this in the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned.
PGA Championshp GIFs
Posted on August 12, 2013 1 Comment
Henrik Stenson does some sort of voodoo over his ball.
Considering that Jim Furyk and Jason Dufner were the main attractions this weekend at the PGA Championship, you’d think that we’d have a shortage of GIF opportunities, but it was actually a good week. Here’s the best from Dufner’s win at Oak Hill Country Club and the 95th PGA Championship.
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Jason Dufner wins the PGA Championship
Posted on August 11, 2013 1 Comment
Jason Dufner (Photo credit: Keith Allison)
Jason Dufner was able to go around Oak Hill in 68 shots on Sunday, getting to 10-under par and winning the 2013 PGA Championship.
What Happened
Jason Dufner entered the final round Sunday at Oak Hill one shot behind the lead of Jim Furyk, seeking his first major championship and redemption for his collapse at the 2011 PGA Championship, dropping a five-shot lead over the final four holes to Keegan Bradley. While Henrik Stenson, Jonas Blixt and Adam Scott had moments, it was really down to the final group of Dufner and Furyk all day.
Dufner took the lead from Furyk after back-to-back birdies on the 4th and 5th, but Furyk would tie him at the top with a birdie on the par-3 6th, before making a bogey on the last hole of the front nine. Dufner was pinpoint with his ball striking all day, and despite looking a little nervous with the putter, he was able to mask that by sticking it close whenever he had a short iron in his hands. Both men would birdie the par-4 16th, giving Dufner a two-shot lead with two holes to play. A pair of bogeys came on 17, with Furyk flubbing a chip in the rough and Dufner three-putting, so Dufner walked to the 72nd hole with his two-shot lead intact.
Approaches from both men came up short on the 18th, and when Furyk’s pitch went long, the pressure on Dufner was all but gone. Furyk would go on to two-putt for bogey, and after Dufner kept his ball below the hole, he two-putted as well for the two-shot victory.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Jason Dufner -10
- 2. Jim Furyk -8
- 3. Henrik Stenson -7
- 4. Jonas Blixt -6
- T5. Scott Piercy -5
- T5. Adam Scott -5
What The Win Means For Dufner
Dufner is a late bloomer, as I’m pretty sure that most of the golfing public has no idea that he’s actually 36 years old. He’s really burst onto the scene in the last couple of years, and based on his play, he didn’t need this win for any kind of exemption or anything, but the first major championship win for anyone is obviously a huge deal. Guys like Shaun Micheel and Rich Beem have made a career out of one major win, but Dufner is a much better player than both of those guys. He’s going to be around for the next few years, and should be a force in major championships going forward.
Obnoxious Fans
If you watched any of the coverage this week, you heard an even more than usual amount of yelling from fans right after shots were struck. The usual stuff was said, “mashed potatoes”, “baba booey” and the like, so it’s nothing new really, but there were more than ever it seemed at Oak Hill. It caught the wind of my entire Twitter timeline, and a bunch of the players, including Ian Poulter.
We should be allowed to take 10’000 volt tazers onto the course and tazer ever muppet who shouts out something stupid. I would laugh then.
— Ian Poulter (@IanJamesPoulter) August 11, 2013
This baba boo shit & mash potato crap shouting wouldn’t happen at Augusta, The Open, nor would it happen at Wimbledon. Tazer the thrushes.
— Ian Poulter (@IanJamesPoulter) August 11, 2013
I’m all for figuring out a way to silence these clowns, but you’d have to imagine that it’d be difficult to police. I suppose you could tell people that if they’re caught yelling like that, they’d be kicked out of the event, but I’m not sure that it’s that easy. Poulter’s right that it wouldn’t happen at those other venues, so I guess it’s possible, but people are probably going to say whatever they want anyway.
Jeff Overton’s Upset
Jeff Overton was the first alternate this week, but didn’t end up getting into the tournament, and apparently he was none too happy about it. His anger wasn’t directed at a player who didn’t pull out, but he decided to take a shot at the PGA of America for their selections in the invitation process. The PGA of America had two invitations, and decided to use them on Japan’s Ryo Ishikawa and Ireland’s Paul McGinley, who will be captaining Europe’s entry at the Ryder Cup next year. Overton didn’t like these decisions and took to Twitter to vent his frustrations. The tweets have since been deleted from his account, but Golf Channel managed to grab them:
“So, in other words you help make a corporation ($)50 to ($)100 million, three years later they put you on a chair and treat you like a piece of …,”
“I’ll play (your) political picks whenever for whatever. #supportusa.”
“@PGAChampionship had two sponsor’s invitations. Who did you give your invites to? Not the guy that helped make you ($)50 million in Wales. #boombabysucks”
Overton is referring to the 2010 Ryder Cup when he was apart of the American team that gave the PGA of America some extra funds. Overton either realized that what he tweeted made him look like an idiot, or someone on his team did, which explains the deleted tweets. It’s not the first time that he’s done something like this, complaining about the rules when he was DQ’d at the Crowne Plaza earlier this year. He’s definitely got the reputation of being a petulant player, and this isn’t going to help that reputation at all. Realistically, he’s had just ten top-10 finishes, and no wins, since he played in that Ryder Cup. If he played better at any point in the last three years, he wouldn’t have to worry about getting invited to the tournament. Despite what he claims to have done in the past, you should never leave these things in the hands of other people.
Other Notes
- Notables to miss the cut: Charles Howell III, Nicolas Colsaerts, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Luke Donald, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy, Jordan Spieth, Nick Watney and Freddie Jacobson.
- Three WD’s this week: Angel Cabrera (wrist), Jamie Donaldson (back) and Bo Van Pelt (hip).
- Tiger and Phil: Bad rounds and bad tournaments happen to everyone, even those who look untouchable for most of the year. Unfortunately for them, it came this time in a major.
- I said last week that as great as Tiger played at Firestone, his driver was a little wonky and that he wouldn’t be able to do that here at Oak Hill, and that’s exactly what happened here.
- On Furyk’s final round: Not surprised that he couldn’t hang on, and when Dufner started getting dialed in with his ball striking, Furyk couldn’t keep up. Furyk’s not the type of player that can usually go out and chase because he’s not a go low type player. He’s a safe player, and when he has to go out of his comfort zone and attack, it just doesn’t work out. It’s his fifth consecutive 54-hole lead that he hasn’t come out on top.
- Really solid tournament for Rory McIlroy, which is something we haven’t said since he was the runner-up to Martin Laird in Texas. As I’ve been saying, he’s going to be just fine.
That’s it for the 2013 major championships, and now we wait for the 2014 Masters. 241 days never seemed so long.
Jim Furyk leads going into Sunday at Oak Hill
Posted on August 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
Jim Furyk (Courtesy: Tour Pro Golf Clubs)
Some quick thoughts ahead of Sunday’s final round at Oak Hill, with Jim Furyk holding a one-shot lead over Jason Dufner.
Current Leaderboard
- 1. Jim Furyk -9
- 2. Jason Dufner -8
- 3. Henrik Stenson -7
- 4. Jonas Blixt -6
- T5. Steve Stricker -5
- T5. Adam Scott -5
Oak Hill Fights Back
The first two rounds allowed scoring that we’ve never seen before at Oak Hill, mostly because of the amount of rain that fell in the area, which gave the players ideal conditions. By the time the leaders teed off on Saturday though, the course started to dry out a little bit, plus the wind picked up and the players took a little while to adjust. Justin Rose, who posted a front-nine 29 on Friday, ended up with a 42 on the same nine just a day later. Some, like Rose and Matt Kuchar, didn’t end up figuring it out and fell down the leaderboard, while the guys you see up top were able to manage for the most part.
The CBS Broadcast
Good god, what a disaster this was to start the day. CBS took over from TNT at 2:00 ET, and it took them 27 minutes to show anything live. Between recapping the previous day, Jim Nantz’ poetry off the top, the PGA of America’s Ted Bishop doing a promo and the Tiger/Phil show despite being nowhere near the top of the board, there wasn’t much of anything to actually watch. I’ve said it before, but there really is no sport that manages to provide a worse experience for the viewer at home than golf, and this today was a prime example of that.
Saturday’s Final Groups
Short points on the players who were in the last few groups:
- Jim Furyk: I’ve written about his ability to close in the past, and he’s got another shot at it tomorrow. He played very well today, but Sunday was a massive problem for him last year.
- Adam Scott: Scott also looked pretty good today until a double bogey on 16 knocked him back. The putter killed him all day.
- Jason Dufner: Wonky with the putter, which we’ve seen before, but held it together pretty good for a 1-over par round.
- Henrik Stenson; Just like he’s done all year, he flew under the radar today, but he’ll be in the second to last group with countryman Jonas Blixt.
Rory McIlroy
I tweeted earlier in the day that even though the score didn’t reflect it at the time, he was even par, that this was the most comfortable I had seen McIlroy since April when he finished as the runner-up to Martin Laird at the Valero. After that, he ended up at 3-under par with birdies on the final two holes and he’s actually within striking distance if he can go low tomorrow. I’ve been saying for weeks that people just needed to calm down and wait for him to break out of this funk, and he might be ready to do just that.
Other Notes
- On Phil Mickelson’s day: Fires an 8-over par 78, which basically shows you that this game is impossible to figure out. He’s been as hot as anyone in the last few weeks, and today, he looked like he had no idea what he was doing out there.
- On Tiger Woods: Not much to say really. At points, he looked great and at others he looked disinterested. Didn’t get off to a good start with his final scores on Thursday and Friday, and it appeared to carry over to today.
- Saw Ian Poulter putting with one hand this morning, which much like Mickelson’s day, shows you that even the pros are confused at points.
- If I have to pick a winner out for tomorrow, I’m going with Stenson at this point. Enjoy the final round, everyone.
Fox obtains rights to the U.S. Open
Posted on August 7, 2013 4 Comments
CBS’ Nick Faldo and NBC’s Johnny Miller. (Courtesy Secret In The Dirt)
Shocking news out of Fox and the USGA tonight, as it’s been announced that Fox will be taking over USGA broadcast rights, signing a 12-year deal that starts in 2015. The deal covers the U.S. Open, the Women’s U.S. Open and the Senior U.S. Open, as well as international team competitions and amateur events. Quotes below are from the parties involved, courtesy of the USGA release.
“This is an exciting and remarkable day for the USGA, as our partnership with FOX Sports is a game-changer for our organization and for the game of golf,” said USGA President Glen D. Nager. “The game is evolving and requires bold and unique approaches on many levels, and FOX shares our vision to seek fresh thinking and innovative ideas to deliver championship golf. This partnership will help us to better lead and serve the game in new and exciting ways.”
“We are thrilled with the commitment that FOX Sports has made to the USGA, our national championships, the strategic growth of our organization and to the game,” said USGA Executive Director Mike Davis. “This partnership represents a promising new future for both organizations that will be marked by broadcast innovation, new approaches and fresh thinking. We could not be more energized by what we will be able to accomplish together to make golf better, both now and for future generations of players and fans who love the game.”
It’s an interesting decision to say the least, and the reaction from NBC’s team is starting to roll in:
Now, I can’t comment on the financial aspect since I have no idea if that was the motivation, but with the way that Fox is spending right now to go head to head with ESPN in the coming weeks, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Fox simply outbid NBC for the rights. So, what does this mean? There’s no word yet on what exactly will be happening with who will be broadcasting the event, but let’s take a quick look at some of the more obvious possibilities:
- Poaching someone from Golf Channel: Could Fox go after one of the reporters or anchors that Golf Channel currently employs to head up their broadcasts? It’s certainly possible, especially if someone like Steve Sands wanted to get a little more exposure. The problem with this theory is that if they are only committed to USGA events, it might not be the most sensible way to spend money, but hey, this is Fox we’re talking about.
- Grabbing some of the NBC staff: NBC doesn’t just broadcast USGA events, so there will still be PGA Tour events on the network, at least as it stands right now. If Fox are only going to do USGA events, would that be enough to intrigue Dan Hicks to jump ship? What does this mean for Johnny Miller and other analysts like Roger Maltbie and Gary Koch?
- Filling the positions in house: Gus Johnson got shoehorned into soccer a little while ago, so it probably makes sense that Fox would at least consider that option, but that is probably something that golf fans would absolutely hate. You think the reaction is bad to occasional work by Miller and Chris Berman? Just wait until Johnson is talking all the time. What about Joe Buck? He is pretty obsessed with the game and you’d think he’d be up for it, and he’s probably more tolerable than Johnson is.
- Someone new to do the coverage: I don’t think this is impossible, but it seems far fetched. Fox presumably paid a ton of money for this deal, so I can’t imagine that they won’t have either a big name or a seasoned pro handling the assignment.
Some other reaction:
I’m more inclined to believe that money played a bigger role in this, but it’s no secret that the USGA wasn’t exactly thrilled with the push back from both the PGA Tour and the PGA of America regarding the anchoring ban, which, by the way, is still stupid.
Ferguson is absolutely correct on this one though, as the USGA is always looking to make themselves the center of attention. When’s the best time to do that? When an organization that you’re already pissed at is holding their biggest event of the year.
As someone who’s been critical of NBC’s coverage in the past, I’m not sure what I should be thinking about this. I’ve always been of the opinion that NBC’s coverage was inferior to both CBS and ESPN, but I’m not exactly thrilled at the premise of Fox taking the reigns here. We’re nearing the end of the Johnny Miller era of U.S. Open coverage, and I’m conflicted.
I never thought I’d write those words.
AdamSarson.com 