FedEx St. Jude Classic Betting Preview

Posted on June 4, 2013     2 Comments

Dustin Johnson

Dustin Johnson (Photo credit: Keith Allison)

With just one week before the second major championship of the year, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind where Dustin Johnson will look to defend his title at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
 
2013 FedEx St. Jude Classic Fact Sheet

  • Course: TPC Southwind
  • Location: Memphis, Tennessee
  • Yardage: 7,239 yards, par 70
  • Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker, Dustin Johnson, Ryan Palmer and Billy Horschel

TV Schedule:

  • Thursday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 1:00 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
  • Sunday –  1:00 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)

Key Storyline This Week
 
As mentioned above, we’re only one week away from the U.S. Open at Merion, so some players may be looking ahead to that event instead of trying to win this one. It makes things a little more difficult to handicap, since some players will be trying to prepare by hitting shots that they might not hit otherwise, just to try and get a better feel for where their games are. Outside of that, there should be a lot of focus on Dustin Johnson, who returns to defend his title and to be honest, nobody knows what to make of his season to this point. He won the opener on the PGA Tour at Kapalua, but since then, he’s been plagued by a back injury, and has been even more inconsistent than we’ve come to expect. In the eleven events since winning in January, Johnson has one top-10 finish, two WD’s and missed three cuts, including last week at the Memorial. In an event where only five of the world’s top-30 ranked players are present, Johnson stands out as the most talented player on the board, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll perform.
 
TPC Southwind
 
Despite being only a par-70, TPC Southwind is pretty long at 7,239 yards and was the most difficult of the 13 par-70’s used last year in relation to par with an average score of 71.24. Fairways and greens are notoriously difficult to hit here, and players who can score the best on the two par-5’s on the layout will likely put themselves in the best possible position to win. Those par-5’s were the two easiest holes on the course last year, with the third averaging 4.77 strokes and the 16th coming in at a ridiculous 4.47. The toughest hole on the course is likely to be the par-3 14th, which will be playing at 239 yards this week and played to an average of 3.32 in 2012. With a huge lake guarding the right side, and bunkers protecting the back left, it gave players fits last year. According to Rob Bolton of PGATour.com, it was the fifth hardest par-3 on the PGA Tour last season, and yielded the most double bogeys or worse of any par-3 in 2012, with a total of 38.
 
As has been the case for pretty much the entire season, weather is expected to come into play, with thunderstorms in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures than you’d expect for a June weekend in Memphis are likely, but the weekend looks good, with only a little bit of wind. You can watch a flyover of the course below:
 

 
Thoughts On The Favourites

  • Phil Mickelson: Playing at TPC Southwind for only the third time in his career, and first since 2009, with his two finishes yielding a T-59 and a missed cut. He hasn’t played since missing the cut at the PLAYERS, and with his spotty record here and so far in 2013, his status as the favourite coming into the week seems based on name-brand value only.
  • Brandt Snedeker: A few months ago, nobody was hotter than Snedeker with four top-3 finishes and a win in five events. In the six events since coming back from a rib injury, he has two top-10’s, but has also missed three cuts. I’m not sure what to make of him at this point, but with only one top-10 finish here in six events, I’ll be staying away.
  • Dustin Johnson: Already touched on him above, but until he has some more solid finishes and he’s fixed whatever is plaguing his back, there’s no point in going near him.
  • Ryan Palmer: Hit and miss here with a T-10 and a T-3, to go along with three missed cuts in five appearances. He’s been at the top of leaderboards in his last three events, but he did just go through U.S. Open qualifying and a 12-hole playoff on Monday and Tuesday, so I wonder how fresh he’s going to be when he tees it up on Thursday.
  • Billy Horschel: Since winning a few weeks ago in New Orleans, Horschel has a missed cut and a T-41, and when you combine that with his ugly track record at TPC Southwind, I’ll be staying away from him this week.

Suggested Plays
 
Scott Stallings (Best Odds 35-1 at Paddy Power)
Coming off of back-to-back T-4 finishes, Stallings seems to be in a good spot with his game. He drives the ball well and is a good putter, but the short irons can sometimes cause him some trouble. Luckily for him, he doesn’t need to win to get into the U.S. Open anymore, as he got in with the withdrawal of England’s Roger Chapman.
 
Charles Howell III (Best Odds 37-1 at Betfair)
Howell’s in the discussion for most talented player in the field this week, and he does have a pair of top-10’s in six trips to TPC Southwind. In fields like this, you try and pick out talent and that’s Howell. He can still get into the U.S. Open, but he needs at least a top-4 finish.
 
Tim Clark (Best Odds 44-1 at 888 Sport)
Fairways and greens are never a problem for Clark, and I’m a little surprised that he hasn’t had better success here. In five appearances, his best finish is a tie for 18th, but he’s a good scrambler and his much talked about anchored putter is working pretty well for him at the moment. He’s finished inside the top-25 in three of his last four events.
 
Peter Hanson (Best Odds 58-1 at BETDAQ)
According to oddsmakers, Hanson is number 15 in the books this week, and it just seems crazy to me that they have 14 players listed in front of him. Outside of Mickelson, Snedeker and Johnson, Hanson’s the most talented guy in the field, and even though he’s never played the course before, I’m willing to take a flyer on him at this kind of price considering his skill set matches up pretty well with the course.
 
Gary Woodland (Best Odds 81-1 at BETDAQ)
I almost took Woodland last week and he had a decent showing at the Memorial until a final round 73 derailed his chances. Throw in the 79 that killed him on Sunday at the Byron Nelson, and he’s had two events in a row where one round has been his undoing. He is the biggest hitter in the field and his game seems to be coming around a little bit. If he can get to six or seven under par on those par-5’s this week, he’s got a shot and at 81-1, it seems like a no-brainer.
 
Robert Allenby (Best Odds 170-1 at Betfair)
Allenby has played in sixteen events in 2013, and has finished three of them. In his 38 rounds played, he’s got two of them in the 60’s, both coming at the notoriously easy Humana Challenge. He’s not going to win this week, and he may not even make the cut, but he’s got seven top-20 finishes here in nine tries, including four top-10’s. On an each way bet, you can do much worse.
 
Other Notes

  • Sponsors exemptions this week: George Coetzee, David Duval, Steven Fox, Shaun Micheel, Matthew Nesmith and Guan Tianlang.
  • Of the 156 players in the field, there are 67 PGA Tour winners for a total of 266 victories.
  • John Daly will be teeing it up for the 23rd time at the St. Jude, as he’s missed the event only twice since joining the PGA Tour back in 1989.
  • 72-hole record is 258 set by John Cook in 1996, but this tournament also hosted Al Geiberger’s 59 back in 1977 at Colonial CC. The course record at TPC Southwind is 61, held jointly by Jay Delsing and Bob Estes.
  • Paul Goydos makes his return to the PGA Tour this week after more than 15 months on the disabled list. The 48-year old had surgery on both his left wrist and index finger last year to remove bone spurs, but apparently he’s not impressed with the way he’s playing at the moment:

 

The Memorial GIF Roundup

Posted on June 3, 2013     1 Comment

Matt Kuchar takes a victory lap.

Matt Kuchar takes a victory lap.

The Memorial Tournament is one of the flagship events on the PGA Tour, and as usual, it picked up a quality winner in Matt Kuchar. Unfortunately, most of the players who were in contention and got the TV time this week were guys who have the charisma of a fire hydrant. That’s not a bad thing in the least, but it makes it more difficult to find things to GIF. Regardless, here’s the best from this week in the Memorial Tournament GIF Roundup.
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Matt Kuchar wins the Memorial

Posted on June 2, 2013     1 Comment

Matt Kuchar

Matt Kuchar (Photo credit: Keith Allison)

Matt Kuchar entered Sunday’s final round at the Memorial with the lead and despite charges from a few players, he was able to hang on for a two shot victory.
 
What Happened
 
Kuchar entered the day leading at 8-under par, and thanks to the difficult weather that was present throughout much of the week, he was paired up with his two closest competitors in Kevin Chappell and Kyle Stanley, both of whom sat two shots behind. Chappell, Stanley and Scott Stallings made charges at various points throughout the day, but Kuchar never lost the lead, thanks to a superb day of driving the golf ball. Kuchar hit 13 of 14 fairways, and just seemed to be playing smart and tactical golf, the kind that Kuchar needs to play to win events against players who have more distance and creativity.
 
Last week, Kuchar carried the lead into Sunday at the Crowne Plaza Invitational but couldn’t hang on when Boo Weekley grabbed his first win in five years. Kuchar couldn’t keep the ball in play last week, missing everything on the left side, which killed him on Sunday. There was none of that this week, as Kuchar fired a final round 68, which was bested only by Stallings and James Driscoll, who each shot 67.
 
Final Leaderboard

  • 1. Matt Kuchar -12
  • 2. Kevin Chappell -10
  • 3. Kyle Stanley -7
  • T4. Scott Stallings -6
  • T4. Bill Haas -6
  • T57. Rory McIlroy +6
  • T65. Tiger Woods +8

What The Win Means For Kuchar
 
The win for Kuchar means that he’s won just about everything that you can, with the exception of a major. He’s won the smaller PGA Tour events, he’s got three big non-majors in the Barclays, the PLAYERS and the Memorial, and he has a WGC win after capturing the Match Play earlier this year. With six wins on the PGA Tour and nine as a professional, Kuchar’s next step is to win a major, and with the USGA deciding to go back to Merion this year, a course that sets up well for Kuchar’s game, there will be many pegging Kuchar as one of the favourites.
 
Coming into the week, Kuchar was ranked ninth in the Official World Golf Rankings, but the win here will move him into fifth place, behind only Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Justin Rose. Kuchar also earned $1.116 million for the victory, and it moves him into second place behind Woods in the race for the FedEx Cup.
 
Tiger Woods
 
Even if you didn’t think he was going to win this week, the performance of Tiger Woods, namely in Saturday’s third round, was definitely the surprise of the week. You can look at a number of stats to try and pinpoint what went wrong, but his 44 on the back nine (teed off on 10), is the highest nine hole score of his career. His final score of 79 was topped only by his memorable 81 in the third round of the 2002 Open Championship. It’s not that it’s impossible for Woods to have a bad tournament, but at Muirfield Village where he’s won five times?
 
To those who are wondering what it means for Merion in a couple of weeks, don’t read too much into it. This is still a guy who has already won four events on the PGA Tour this season. Sometimes this happens, even to players like Tiger Woods. Luke Donald may have summed it up best in a tweet on Saturday night:

 
Hey, sometimes things don’t work out the way you planned it, especially in golf. Woods came back and shot an even par round of 72 today. And before anyone asks, no, you shouldn’t be worried about Woods or McIlroy right now.
 
K.J. Choi’s new clubs
 
We all know how good professional golfers are, but perhaps no story illustrates that point any better than what K.J. Choi did this week. Choi hasn’t been feeling comfortable on the course, so before he teed it up this week at the Memorial, he took a trip to the local Golf Galaxy in Columbus and tested out some Mizuno MP-64’s. He liked them enough to buy them on the spot, and he put them in the bag this week. Not only did he fire an opening round of even par, he navigated the course and the weather to end up tied for 21st at 1-under par. Mizuno man Luke Donald clearly approved:

 
Other Notes

  • Notables to miss the cut: John Huh, Chris Kirk, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Streelman, D.A. Points, Webb Simpson, Guan Tianlang, Brandt Snedeker, Nicolas Colsaerts, Branden Grace, Geoff Ogilvy, Jeff Overton, Sang-moon Bae and Nick Watney.
  • Both Lee Westwood and Johnson Wagner withdrew from the event on Friday night, as opposed to going back out on Saturday morning to complete their second rounds. Both were going to miss the cut anyway, so I get why they wouldn’t want to finish out, but I can’t imagine that the PGA Tour is too impressed.
  • On the other end, Seung-yul Noh apparently intended to WD but instead got hit with a DQ after walking off the course and not telling anyone.
  • Apparently Kyle Stanley has sought putting help from Arron Oberholser. Not quite Woods and Stricker, but something must have worked this week. Stanley has quietly posted top-10 finishes in three of his last five events.
  • Mikko Ilonen picked up his third career European Tour win this morning in Sweden, with a three shot victory over Jonas Blixt at the Nordea Masters. Matteo Manassero followed up his win at the BMW PGA with a tie for fourth.
  • Inexplicably, no video seems to exist of Andrew Dodt’s holes-in-one at the Nordea.
  • Despite the weather, Jack Nicklaus and crew kept the course looking great and it was playing pretty difficult too. It’s going to be a great venue in a couple of months for the President’s Cup.

GIF: The many swings of Tiger Woods

Posted on May 29, 2013     26 Comments

It’s no secret that Tiger Woods has changed his swing over the years, much like just about every other professional golfer on the planet. Of course, any change that Woods makes is going to be put under the microscope, with alleged swing experts (see Chamblee, Brandel) questioning his every move, and even suggesting the ridiculous, like firing Sean Foley.
 
I thought it would be good to look at the swing changes over the years of Woods, side-by-side. Credit to Scott Johnson for helping with the GIF after my attempts to properly match everything up didn’t go so well. Give Scott a follow on Twitter: @ScottJohnson48.
 
tigerswing1
 
Woods tees it up next tomorrow in the Memorial Tournament, going off with Fred Couples and Keegan Bradley at 1:16 PM ET.

The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

Posted on May 28, 2013     Leave a Comment

Tiger Woods by myophoto, on FlickrCreative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic License by myophoto
With wins in three of his last four starts, Tiger Woods returns to the PGA Tour this week to defend his title at Muirfield Village and the Memorial Tournament.
 

2013 Memorial Tournament Fact Sheet

  • Course: Muirfield Village
  • Location: Dublin, Ohio
  • Yardage: 7,386 yards, par 72
  • Defending Champion: Tiger Woods
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar and Justin Rose

TV Schedule:

  • Thursday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 12:30 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
  • Sunday –  12:30 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)

Key Storyline This Week
 
This one’s obvious, isn’t it? Woods is looking for his fifth win of the season, something he hasn’t done since winning six times back in 2009, and keep in mind that back then when he won the Memorial, it was only his second win of the season. The start he’s had to his campaign, although not without controversy, is the kind the season that we came to expect years ago and there’s no reason to think that he’s going to slow down any time soon. If that’s not enough, Muirfield Village is considered a “Tiger Track”, with five wins, a third, T-3, T-4 and three other top-25 finishes, he’s the logical favourite this week. If you’re looking for something non-Woods related, everyone is preparing for the U.S. Open at Merion in a couple of weeks and the field is loaded as usual for the Memorial, with the only absences from the top-10 in the world rankings being Graeme McDowell and Louis Oosthuizen.
 
Muirfield Village
 
Muirfield Village was the vision and construction of Jack Nicklaus, first opening for play in 1974 and since that opening, Nicklaus has constantly tweaked the design to keep it relevant with changes in technology. The course was a beast in the mid-70’s too, playing at just over 7,000 yards, with Roger Maltbie coming away victorious in the inaugural event in 1976 after beating Hale Irwin in a playoff. Maltbie’s winning score of even par, which was 32 strokes better than last place finisher Leonard Thompson, made it obvious to the players that they had to be at their best the week of the Memorial to have any chance. The course has consistently ranked inside the top-25 in America as ranked by Golf Digest, and is currently sitting at number 14 in the rankings released earlier this year. In addition to the Memorial, the course will also play host to the President’s Cup in the first week of October.
 
The key stretch of holes will be the final three, especially after the much talked about re-design that Nicklaus performed on the 16th two years ago, which has now made the 215 yard par-3 the hardest hole on the course in each of the last two events. 17 and 18, two medium length par-4’s, were always two of the more difficult on the layout, but the additions to the 16th make the final three holes one of the toughest finishing stretches in all of professional golf. Geoff Shackelford of Golf Digest took a look at the new hole going into last year’s event:
 

 
Of course, the 16th was also the site of one of last year’s most memorable shots, as Woods managed to hit a ridiculous flop shot and hole out for his second consecutive birdie in Sunday’s final round. After another birdie on the 18th, Woods was able to win the event by two shots over Andres Romero and Rory Sabbatini.
 

 
Thoughts on the Favourites

    • Tiger Woods: We’re pretty much at that point of a few years ago where Woods is such an overwhelming favourite, that you can get good value everywhere else, and he’s almost not even worth betting unless he runs into some bad form. No more getting him at 12-1 like we did a few months ago at the Farmers. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the mix at the end of the week, but the price isn’t there at roughly 2-1, and realistically, he won’t win every week.
    • Rory McIlroy: McIlroy is coming off of a missed cut at Wentworth, which I think is causing his price to be higher than it should be, but that’s good news for people who like his chances this week. Finished tied for tenth in 2010 and had a solo fifth in 2011 before missing the cut here last year when he fired a second round 79.
    • Adam Scott: The reigning Masters champ hasn’t been playing much, which really isn’t a surprise as he doesn’t usually play a full schedule anyway, but his results at Muirfield Village have been hit and miss. He had back-to-back top-5’s in 2006 and 2007, but in his other five appearances, he hasn’t finished better than a tie for 29th. Keep in mind that he usually plays better coming off of a break, with his stroke average being more than half of a stroke better when he’s taken more than two weeks off compared to playing in the previous week.
    • Matt Kuchar: Five consecutive top-15 finishes, including a runner-up in his last appearance in 2011. In those five events, only three of those twenty rounds have been over par. Combine that with the fact that he’s coming off a runner-up last week, and you can see why he’s listed the way he is.
    • Justin Rose: If you think Scott is hit and miss here, take a look at Rose’s finishes since 2004: 4th-T75-T14-T2-MC-1-MC-8. That’s a lot of variance, including his win back in 2010, which isn’t something he’s used to since his consistency is usually his hallmark. Strangely, he’s coming off of a missed cut and a T50 in his last two weeks, ending his run of 14 consecutive top-25 finishes.

Suggested Plays
 
Rory McIlroy (Best Odds 16-1 at bet365)
I’m ignoring the missed cut last week at Wentworth, and the one here last year simply because I don’t think you should be able to get a player of McIlroy’s talent at 16-1. Prior to that missed cut, he had four consecutive top-25’s and his game looked to be in order. He kinda got the short end of the stick with the weather last week, so I think he’s a good play this week.
 
Lee Westwood (Best Odds 35-1 at Betfair)
It’s the first time back at Muirfield Village since 2003, but he’s had success in the Ohio area before, with three top-10’s at the Bridgestone. He’s on a run of five consecutive top-10’s after last week at Wentworth, and probably should have won that event if he could have hit any putts on Sunday.
 
Rickie Fowler (Best Odds 66-1 at Spreadex)
Everyone remembers the 84 he fired in Sunday’s final round last year when he played with Tiger Woods, but I don’t think he’s the type of guy to be affected by that kind of thing. That 84 caused him to finish tied for 52nd, but outside of that he’s got a T-22 and a runner-up at the Memorial. He hasn’t had a ton of success recently, but it’s an easy play at that kind of price.
 
Zach Johnson (Best Odds 67-1 at BETDAQ)
Johnson finally had a top-10 last week, which was his first since the Open Championship last year, and I’m banking on seeing him near the top of the board again this week. In his post-round interview on Sunday, he mentioned that the third round at the PLAYERS was the only thing that pushed him down the board, and he’s right, as that 76 killed him. He’s getting back into form, and I think an each-way bet is the way to go here with Johnson.
 
Hunter Mahan (Best Odds 90-1 at BETDAQ)
After missing three consecutive cuts, Mahan has gotten it back a little bit in the last two weeks. With three top-20’s here in his career, Mahan seems like a solid play. He’s my longshot play of the week.

Golf GIF Roundup: May 27th

Posted on May 27, 2013     1 Comment

Lee Westwood can't believe he's in the GIF roundup.

Lee Westwood can’t believe he’s in the GIF roundup.


 
It was a great week for golf with two marquee men’s events in the BMW PGA Championship and the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Throw in the Senior PGA Championship and a severely weather shortened LPGA event in the Bahamas, and you’ve got a week full of action. Here’s the best of the best in this week’s GIF roundup.
 
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Weekley gets back in the winner’s circle

Posted on May 26, 2013     Leave a Comment

English: Boo Weekley at the 2009 Honda Classic

English: Boo Weekley at the 2009 Honda Classic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The comeback of Boo Weekley continued this week at Colonial, as he fired a final round 66 to win the 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational by one shot over Matt Kuchar. It’s the first win for Weekley in over five years, as he last saw the winner’s circle at the 2008 RBC Heritage.
 
What Happened
 
Kuchar entered Sunday’s final round with a one-shot lead over a host of players, and it was back and forth all day as Kuchar just couldn’t seem to make a move to distance himself from the pack. Scott Stallings was the first to seize real control, but a costly double bogey on 15 after a horrendous chip and an equally awful bunker shot put him too far back to make a run. Last year’s champion Zach Johnson also made it interesting with a final round 66, but would ultimately end up two shots behind Weekley, who kept hitting shot after shot right at flagsticks. He got a little leaky with the putter down the stretch, as he has done in the past, but with no one making a significant charge, it didn’t end up meaning anything. Kuchar would make birdie on the last hole to scratch out a solo second.
 
Final Leaderboard

  • 1. Boo Weekley -14
  • 2. Matt Kuchar -13
  • 3. Zach Johnson -12
  • T4. Scott Stallings -11
  • T4. John Rollins -11
  • T4. Matt Every -11

What The Win Means For Weekley
 
The win means the world to Weekley, who had run into so many problems with injuries and inconsistent play over the last couple of years, that he was probably close to running out of exemptions coming into the 2013 season. He was phenomenal in Tampa, firing a final round 63 to finish as the runner-up to Kevin Streelman, and also had a T-6 in New Orleans, so the game was definitely in much better shape than in previous years, but obviously he still needed to close the deal in one of these events. He’s always been known as a terrific ball striker; one of those guys that the other pros watch when they go to the range, just to see what he’s doing an how he does it, but the putter was always a sore spot. We saw more of that today down the stretch, but it didn’t catch up to him, and to be honest, this is great for the PGA Tour. Weekley is a character, and in a game that lacks guys who show emotion and flare, guys like Weekley are needed. Who else does this in the middle of a Ryder Cup?
 
Weekley-rides-the-bull-08-Ryder-Cup
 
I’m not going to say that this win was more important for golf than for Weekley, but it’s pretty close. He’ll be 40 in a few weeks, and this does extend his career, which is all a lot of these guys can hope for when it comes down to it. Nobody wants to go back to the mini-tours and try to work their way back. But, if he can get it back on track, the PGA Tour just found a new guy that the North American public knows, likes and can get behind. Yes, the guy above riding the bull is marketable. We’ll see Weekley next in a couple of weeks in Memphis, as he is taking next week off to spend time with his family.
 
The Jeff Overton DQ
 
Jeff Overton was disqualified during Saturday’s third round for using a putting alignment aid mid-round. There was a logjam on the 10th tee, so Overton decided to walk over to the practice green to hit some putts while he waited. Presumably to make sure this was within the rules, Overton asked an official if it was okay to do this, which he was told that it was. The official didn’t know that he was going to use the aid, which isn’t allowed by the rules, and so Overton was disqualified. Now, I wouldn’t spend so much time on this normally, but Overton decided to go on Twitter afterwards to vent some frustration:
 

 
Another discussion over the Rules of Golf… Look, Overton should have known the rule. Even I know that one, and I’m nowhere near the PGA Tour, but he does have a point that the rule book is far too big. Lee Trevino once said that the Rules of Golf should fit on a match book, and well, that’s definitely not the case now. As we saw with Tiger Woods earlier in the year, there’s a loophole for every rule, which just seems ridiculous, but hey, that’s golf, right?
 
Same Guy Today
 
In my betting preview, I tipped David Hearn as a longshot pick this week, and it was looking pretty good when he fired an opening round 64. Following it up with a second round 78 caused Hearn to miss the cut, which always begs the question of what the hell could have possibly been so different from day one to day two?
 

 
Unfortunately, that’s just the way it is sometimes.
 
Other Notes

  • Notables to miss the cut: Charl Schwartzel, Johnson Wagner, Kevin Streelman, Ben Crane, David Toms, Vijay Singh, John Senden, Stewart Cink, Harris English, Kyle Stanley, Ryan Moore and Y.E. Yang.
  • In the same week that the anchored putter ban was announced, Tim Clark had a chance to win this event. He ended up finishing tied for 7th, but that certainly would have been an ironic turn of events.
  • That third place finish for Zach Johnson was his first top-10 since the Open Championship last year.
  • Both of the champions picks made the former winners look good this week, with Jordan Spieth finishing T-7 and Franklin Corpening getting into a tie for 14th after an amazing final round 62.
  • We talked about David Hearn, but another Canadian, Graham DeLaet, put himself in position to win this week before his final round 74 left him at 6-under par. No Canadian has won on the PGA Tour since Stephen Ames won the 2009 Children’s Miracle Network Classic.
  • Disappointing finishes from Jason Dufner (T-46) and Rickie Fowler (T-54).

Manassero gets fourth European Tour win at Wentworth

Posted on May 26, 2013     1 Comment

Courtesy: European Tour Twitter account

Courtesy: European Tour Twitter account

20-year old Matteo Manassero won the 2013 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on Sunday, defeating former champion Simon Khan and Marc Warren on the fourth playoff hole. It’s the first win of the 2013 campaign for Manassero, and the fourth of his career on the European Tour.
 
What Happened
 
Manassero entered the day two shots back of leader Alejandro Canizares, but along with Simon Khan and Marc Warren, got out in front of the 54-hole leader as the final group approached the par-5 18th. Canizares needed an eagle on the last hole to join the three men in the playoff, but could only manage a birdie and it was down to three. All three men were previously undefeated in playoff situations, but obviously that was going to change here. Warren put himself out of it right on the first playoff hole, spraying his drive into the right trees. Khan and Manassero played even up for the next two playoff holes before Khan’s approach on the fourth playoff hole found the water, opening the door for Manassero to two-putt for the victory.
 
Final Leaderboard

  • 1. Matteo Manassero -10 *wins in playoff*
  • T2. Simon Khan -10
  • T2. Marc Warren -10
  • T4. Alejandro Canizares -9
  • T4. Miguel Angel Jimenez -9

What The Win Means For Manassero
 
If he wasn’t thought of as the best young player in the world already, winning a huge tournament like this should seal that for Manassero. Think about it for a second: at 20 years old, Manassero already has four European Tour wins, with victories in Spain, Malaysia, Singapore and England. On the CBS broadcast of the PGA Tour stop at Colonial this week, David Feherty mentioned that 19-year old Jordan Spieth is likely the best young player in the world, but that’s definitely not the case. He was ranked 57th in the world coming into this week, and he’s going to see a huge jump now into the 30’s after this win. The next step for Manassero is to start contending in major championships, which is crazy to think about when you consider his age, but you could argue that this tournament is the biggest non-major on the golf calendar, so people are going to start expecting better results in the four majors. He’ll have that chance now as well, as the win got him into the U.S. Open, the Open Championship for the next three years, and made him exempt on the European Tour for the next five, when he’ll be the ripe old age of 25. If he wants another target, the win puts him just one shy of Constantino Rocca for the most ever by an Italian born player on the European Tour.
 
He’s not the longest hitter in the world, but his accuracy and putting are phenomenal, much like the style of game played by former world number one Luke Donald. The best thing I heard about him this week was mentioned on the Sunday broadcast, when it was said that in every tournament he plays in, he goes out with one of the early groups and walks the course with them to try and get a feel for how the course is playing and what’s going on. I don’t think he’s going to want to do that in a few years, but it shows a willingness to know everything about what’s going on every day, which to me at least, shows a maturity well beyond his years.
 
The Big Boys Miss The Cut
 
Seeing as how this is the flagship event for the European Tour, it draws not only a big crowd, but also a world-class field which is usually better than the PGA Tour’s event at Colonial in the same week. That was the case again this year, but unfortunately for both the fans and the event itself, four of the biggest name players in the event ended up missing the cut when Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald all failed to make the weekend. Obviously you expect all four of these guys to make cuts, but it shouldn’t come as much of a shock for McIlroy, Poulter and McDowell based on their prior records. Between the three of them, they’ve played 26 tournaments at Wentworth and have only one top-5 finish, which was McIlroy’s back in 2009. There’s also 13 missed cuts and all three of them have scoring averages over 72, but Donald not making the weekend should be a big shock. Not only was he the two-time defending champion, he also has five other top-10 finishes at Wentworth in his career.
 
Other Notes

  • Great finish for Miguel Angel Jimenez, who is just getting back from off-season knee surgery. The 49-year old needed the surgery after suffering an injury while skiing, and made this his second event back after playing in the Open de Espana in late April. This week’s appearance also gave Jimenez 600 career appearances on the European Tour.
  • Most people expected Alejandro Canizares to fold under the pressure of playing with Lee Westwood in the final group, and while that happened a little bit with Canizares finishing one shot out of the playoff, Westwood ended up three shots out of the extra holes.
  • Sergio Garcia picked up his 18th consecutive top-25 finish this week, and was very well received by the Wentworth crowd despite his nonsense with Tiger Woods over the past few weeks. Of course, that likely won’t be the case at Merion in a couple of weeks, but Garcia can’t worry about that just yet.

BMW PGA Championship Betting Preview

Posted on May 22, 2013     Leave a Comment

Wentworth Golf Club

Wentworth Golf Club (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It’s the flagship event for the European Tour this week, as a loaded field heads to Wentworth to try and dethrone two-time defending champion Luke Donald at the BMW PGA Championship.
 
2013 BMW PGA Championship Fact Sheet

  • Course: Wentworth Club – West Course
  • Location: Surrey, England
  • Yardage: 7,302 yards, par 72
  • Defending Champion: Luke Donald
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia

TV Schedule:

  • Thursday – 6:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 6:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 7:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday –  7:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)

Key Storyline This Week
 
Whenever he tees it up, Rory McIlroy takes a lot of the focus, and this week will be no different. Between his “struggles” to start 2013 and his recent decision to abandon his management group to go solo, McIlroy has a lot going on at the moment. He’s going to be looked at as a serious contender this week and he should be based on his ability, but Wentworth hasn’t always been kind to the former world number one. In five events, he has one top-10 finish, a solo fifth back in 2009. Outside of that, he’s got a T-24, a T-48 and two missed cuts, including last year where he fired a dreadful 79 in Friday’s second round. With that kind of track record, it shouldn’t be a surprise if he doesn’t do that well, but it’s going to be a big focus regardless.
 
The other thing that I’m going to be paying attention to is the play of Sergio Garcia. We’re a couple of weeks removed from his meltdown and controversy at the PLAYERS Championship, the latest in a long line of drama with Garcia. In terms of his form though, he’s probably never been better. Even with his collapse, he finished tied for 8th, extending his run of top-25 finishes to 17 straight worldwide. It’s his first trip back to Wentworth in over a decade, having last played the course at the 2002 HSBC Match Play, but he’s always fared well at the course, never finishing worse than a tie for 19th.
 
Update: Since writing this, Garcia made his “fried chicken” comments towards Tiger Woods, which would qualify as his latest bit of drama. Just makes things even more interesting for this week.
 
Wentworth
 
The West Course at Wentworth is one of the more famous venues in European golf, having hosted the 1953 Ryder Cup, the HSBC Match Play from 1964-2007 and this event since its inception in 1984. The headquarters for the European Tour are also on the grounds, and the course is frequently present on lists celebrating Europe’s top courses, ranking in at number 85 on Golf Digest’s most recent compilation. Harry Colt designed the course way back in 1926 and it was modernized to much criticism by Ernie Els just a few years ago. Wentworth West is an oddity in the modern game in that despite the par-72 layout, it goes out in 35 and comes in in 37, with three par-5’s on the back nine, including the two finishing holes. Many observers feel that’s what made it an exciting Match Play layout, as the final two holes would usually force players to make birdie in order to stay ahead of their competition. Since the Els redesign, the back nine has played considerably more difficult, with three of the four toughest holes on the course coming in a stretch from 13 to 16.
 
Ahead of the tournament, the Wentworth Club actually did a flyover for each individual hole and got the legendary Peter Alliss to narrate over each one. It’s worth your time to check it out, even if it is just to listen to Alliss. I put together each video into a playlist for easy access below:
 

 
Thoughts on the Favourites

  • Luke Donald: He’s won it in each of the last two years, and even if you threw those two events out, he’s had a ridiculous run at Wentworth. Outside of the two wins, he has a runner-up, a third, a T-7, T-18, T-25 and T-35. He’s also had good finishes at the Match Play when it was there, so you’d have to think that he’s going to be there at the end. Trying to become the first player since Colin Montgomerie to win three straight BMW PGA’s.
  • Rory McIlroy: As mentioned above, the track record isn’t there for McIlroy, but it’d be foolish to count him out. He has started to play better, with five top-25 finishes in his last six starts, including his runner-up to Martin Laird in Texas.
  • Lee Westwood: He’s got nearly as much experience as anyone else at Wentworth, with much of his success coming in the Match Play format. He’s been runner-up twice in this event here, including two years ago, but he’s also got six missed cuts. Still in better form than most, with four consecutive top-10’s, all on the PGA Tour.
  • Justin Rose: Usually hit or miss here, with two top-10’s and two missed cuts in his last four events at Wentworth. Before his missed cut at the PLAYERS a couple of weeks ago, he was one of the hottest players in the world. Still looking for his first win in all formats at Wentworth in his 12th start.
  • Sergio Garcia: Still on a great run of form, but it’s been a long time since he’s seen the course, and he hasn’t played it under the new Els redesign. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the most talented player in the field not named McIlroy, but we’ll have to see how he bounces back after his most recent setback.

Suggested Plays
 
Lee Westwood (Best Odds 12-1 at Coral)
At the beginning of the year, I wasn’t crazy about Westwood’s chances to do much of anything, especially after he fired longtime caddie and friend Billy Foster, but he has impressed me with the way he’s played. Six top-10’s worldwide, including the last four events he’s teed it up in on the PGA Tour, and even though he hasn’t won one of those yet, it seems like it’s time for him to break that streak. He shouldn’t put himself in too much trouble off the tee, but even if he does, he’s usually a good enough scrambler to get out of it. As mentioned above, I do like his track record here as well.
 
Martin Kaymer (Best Odds 33-1 at bwin)
I’ve always been a huge fan of Kaymer, and if last week is any indication, we could be seeing the former world number one rounding back into form. He finished tied for fifth at the Byron Nelson, where he ranked 11th in GIR and 3rd in scrambling. Outside of a missed cut in 2010, he’s had nothing terrible at Wentworth, finishing no worse than a tie for 31st in six tries. At the very least, I think he gets inside the top-5 again this week.
 
Ernie Els (Best Odds 56-1 at Betfair)
Even before Els redesigned the course, there is probably nobody who knew the layout better than him, as this will be his 25th appearance at Wentworth since 1996. In those appearances are fifteen top-10 finishes, along with five wins in the match play format and two runner-ups in stroke play. He finished tied for 7th last year, and even though he only has one top-10 finish this season, the price seems too good to pass up considering his track record.
 
Matteo Manassero (Best Odds 66-1 at bwin)
I say it a lot with guys like Manassero, but anytime you can give me a player who putts and scrambles like him at this kind of a price, you take it. Finished tied for 7th here in 2011, but hasn’t had the kind of year that was expected of him coming in to 2013, which explains why you can get him at this kind of a number. I don’t think he wins this week, but a good finish doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
 
Thongchai Jaidee (Best Odds 90-1 at BETDAQ)
There are few golfers on the planet right now that have the consistent results of Jaidee over the last six months. Twelve finishes inside the top-20 in his last sixteen worldwide events, including going to the finals last week of the Volvo Match Play against Graeme McDowell. Even though he lost that match, his showing was more than impressive, defeating Ian Poulter, Thomas Aiken twice, Peter Hanson and Scott Jamieson. His record isn’t great at Wentworth, but he’s only missed one cut here in ten career events.
 
Retief Goosen (Best Odds 227-1 at BETDAQ)
Goosen knows the course in the same way that Els does, with this being his 25th event since 1996 at Wentworth as well. He hasn’t had the kind of success that Els has enjoyed, but he does have eleven top-10 finishes here in his career. It’s been a bit of a slow start for him since his return from off-season back surgery, but if he’s going to play well, Wentworth is as likely a spot as any other. And at 227-1, it’s a no brainer, especially on an each-way bet.

Crowne Plaza Invitational Betting Preview

Posted on May 20, 2013     Leave a Comment

English: An image of golfer Zach Johnson on to...

English: An image of golfer Zach Johnson on tour in 2007. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The PGA Tour returns to Colonial for the 65th time this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational, where Zach Johnson will look to defend his 2012 title.
 
2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational Fact Sheet

  • Course: Colonial Country Club Course
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • Yardage: 7,204 yards, par 70
  • Defending Champion: Zach Johnson
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Jason Dufner

TV Schedule:

  • Thursday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 1:00 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
  • Sunday –  1:00 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)

Key Storyline This Week
 
It’s difficult to believe that a tournament like the Crowne Plaza Invitational with history dating back to 1946 would be the lesser tournament played in a week, but that’s the situation we find ourselves in with the European Tour hosting the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth this week. Still though, most of the world’s best players are playing somewhere this week, so that’s really all that matters. With no real runaway favourite this week, many will feel like they have a chance, and with the way the course usually plays, you should be expecting low scores. The winning score of this event has only been in single digits three times in the last twenty years, with the last coming in 1999 when Olin Browne came away victorious.
 
Colonial Country Club
 
You’ll probably hear the term Hogan’s Alley a lot this week, and it really only references the success that Ben Hogan had on the track in prior years, winning the event five times. It’s a rarity these days, but Colonial has played host for all 65 years of this championship, and really, there hasn’t been a whole lot in the way of changes to the design since the tournament was initially contested in 1946. The layout has been stretched to just over 7,200 yards, but it still plays as a par-70, as Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus initially envisioned when they started building it in the mid-1930’s. Colonial typically ranks in as one of the hardest collections of fairways and greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and with greens averaging just over 4,400 square feet, players won’t be aiming at large targets. Thankfully for the players, the conditions aren’t supposed to be too bad, with a little bit of rain expected on Friday and minimal wind until Sunday’s final round, where it could blow at up to 25 km/h.
 
As far as holes to watch this week, Colonial is known for having difficult stretches of action, sandwiched between easy ones. For example, holes 3-4-5 ranked as the 8th, 6th and 1st on the handicap scale in terms of difficulty, while 12-13-14-15 came in as the 5th, 3rd, 2nd and 7th hardest on the course. Players need to take advantage of the two lone par-5’s on the course this week. The first hole has played as the easiest hole on the course in each of the last five years, and while the 11th is a beast at 635 yards, players should be able to just let it go. Even if it’s a three shot hole for most players, it should be an easy birdie hole.
 
Thoughts on the Favourites

  • Charl Schwartzel: Schwartzel’s an interesting play this week since he’s never seen the course. I’m not sure why he chose to abandon Wentworth this year since he’s played there every year since 2004, but last week was his first appearance at Las Colinas too and he ended up with a solo third. In a weaker field, I think he’s the most talented player out there.
  • Zach Johnson: Johnson’s a two-time winner on this course, and when he’s on, this is the type of course that he always does well on. The problem is that his trademark consistency has been completely absent in 2013, with three missed cuts and no top-10 finishes. Staying away from him until he shows some better form.
  • Matt Kuchar: One top-10 finish here in six events, and much like Johnson, he hasn’t had the kind of year that he would have expected. Since winning the Match Play in February, his T-8 at the Masters is his only top-10 finish, and he really hasn’t been close in other events. Not sure what to expect from him at all.
  • Jim Furyk: Tremendous track record here with seven top-10 finishes since 1996, including last year. Seems like a broken record, but he hasn’t had a quality year in 2013, and I would consider betting him, but the price simply isn’t good enough considering his start to 2013.
  • Jason Dufner: I thought he might break out last week at the Byron Nelson, but it didn’t happen as he finished tied for 33rd. Still looking for his first top-10 of the year on the PGA Tour as well, so despite his runner-up finish to Johnson last year, I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Suggested Plays
 
Charl Schwartzel (Best Odds 14-1 at bet365)
The only reason Schwartzel didn’t win at the Byron Nelson was because his putter betrayed him on Sunday. Players of his quality don’t let that happen twice in a row, and when you can get the best player in the field at this price, you take it.
 
Ricke Fowler (Best Odds 28-1 at Betfair)
I know he’s been cut in back-to-back events, but in shorter quality fields, you tend to look at the players with the most talent, and Fowler is right up there on that list. He’s improved every time out at Colonial, ending up tied for fifth last year.
 
Bo Van Pelt (Best Odds 35-1 at Bet Victor)
Things are slowly starting to come together for Van Pelt, who struggled to start his campaign. He’s never missed the cut in nine tries at Colonial, and has six top-20’s. Has picked up two top-10 finishes in his last three worldwide events.
 
Henrik Stenson (Best Odds 35-1 at Sky Bet)
Doesn’t have a great track record here, with his best finish being a tie for 27th back in 2010, but his finishes and stats in 2013 are pointing towards a win. He leads the PGA Tour in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation, and he’s finished inside the top-20 in five of his last six stroke play events. He has all of the skills to get it done this week and has that “go low” ability.
 
Tim Clark (Best Odds 51-1 at Betfair)
Doesn’t have the “go low” ability of Stenson or Fowler, but shouldn’t put himself out of contention either. It’s a rarity when he misses a fairway, and his scrambling and putting ability are better than most. Six top-20 finishes in eight tries, including back-to-back runner ups in 2008 and 2009.
 
David Hearn (Best Odds 265-1 at Betfair)
This is the real definition of a dartboard pick, as most people have no idea who Hearn even is. He’s only made 7 of 14 cuts in 2013, but he did end up tied for 13th here last year, plus the one thing that never seems to leave him is the putter. Outside of the missed cut a few weeks ago in Houston, he always seems to play well in the Texas area, and I think he’s a decent each-way bet at that kind of price.
 
Other Notes

  • I think Louis Oosthuizen could be a threat, but after pulling out of the Byron Nelson on Saturday night with a neck injury, it just doesn’t seem like a wise decision to place money on him.
  • It’s the 10th anniversary of Annika Sorenstam playing in the event in 2003. Sorenstam missed the cut, but became the first woman to play a PGA Tour event since Babe Zaharias played the LA Open in 1945.
  • Franklin Corpening and Jordan Spieth will be in the field this week as the two players selected by past champions to join the field. The Crowne Plaza is the only tournament that uses this as a way to fill out the field.
  • Sponsors Exemptions this week: Chad Campbell, Patrick Cantlay, John Daly, Steve Flesch, Steven Fox, Colt Knost, Davis Love III and John Peterson.
  • 70 players combining for 278 career PGA Tour wins are in the field this week.