Masters Betting Preview
Posted on April 9, 2013 2 Comments
Well, it’s finally here. The world’s best players will take the trip down Magnolia Lane and up to the Augusta National clubhouse this week, trying to not only win the first major championship of the year, but to also join the illustrious list of players to win golf’s greatest tournament. Welcome to Masters week.
2013 Masters Fact Sheet
- Course: Augusta National Golf Club
- Location: Augusta, Georgia
- Yardage: 7,435 yards, par 72
- Defending Champion: Bubba Watson
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose and Charl Schwartzel
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)
- Saturday – 3:00 to 7:00 PM ET (CBS)
- Sunday – 3:00 to 7:00 PM ET (CBS)
What can you say? The Masters is the one tournament every year that golf fans and non-golf fans alike seem to agree on. Many of the most historic moments in all of sports have happened on the grounds at Augusta National, and coming into the 77th playing of the event this year, professional golf is hitting another high point.
Key Storyline This Week
The Masters is such an important event that there really isn’t a need for a secondary storyline. Winning the Masters is a career changing event. Fuzzy Zoeller, after winning the event in 1979 said that he probably wouldn’t get to heaven, but that the Masters was probably as close as he would get. On the flip side, losing one can be devastating, with former world number one David Duval saying that a runner-up finish at the Masters “like getting kicked in the head.” The player who wins this week will never be forgotten.
I know I just said that there isn’t a need for another storyline, but there are several at play here. Tiger Woods, who has won three times on the PGA Tour already this season, is playing the best golf I’ve seen him play in several years. If he were to break his near five-year major drought, he would grab his 15th career major victory and his fifth green jacket. Rory McIlroy has been playing much better in recent weeks and will be looking to improve on a spotty record at Augusta National. Will a good, young player like Thorbjorn Olesen or Nicolas Colsaerts be the first guy to win the Masters in their debut appearance since Zoeller 34 years ago? What about established players looking to win their first major championship, like Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott? It’s always fun at the Masters, and you’ll be forgiven if you plan on sitting on the couch for four consecutive days watching the coverage.
Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta National is known for being incredibly difficult, especially for those who haven’t seen the course. Ridiculously fast greens, likely to be near 13 on the Stimpmeter when the tournament gets underway, get most of the focus, but tough driving angles and massive undulations are present on most of the course’s 18 holes. The subtle intricacies that the course throws at you constantly make it difficult to think anyone who hasn’t been there a couple of times in the past will have success. Keegan Bradley’s T-27 was the best finish for a Masters rookie last year, and I can’t see it getting much better than that this week.
Suggested Plays
Before I get to my suggested plays, let’s talk briefly about the players I won’t be picking.
- Tiger Woods: At roughly 4-1, I don’t see enough value to put any money on him, but I fully expect him to be in the mix throughout the week. He’s playing too well and his track record is simply far too good to ignore, but with a field this deep, there needs to be more to it.
- Rory McIlroy: I really have no idea what to expect out of him this week, but he’s been rounding into form for a couple of weeks, leading to his solo 2nd at TPC San Antonio. Much like Woods, he’s too good to discount, but his past history here isn’t great. He’s going to win a few green jackets, but I don’t think he gets his first this year.
- Brandt Snedeker: Two months ago, Snedeker was the hottest player on the planet, culminating in his win at Pebble Beach. He sat out a few weeks due to a rib injury and since coming back, he’s missed back-to-back cuts. He’s the type of player that does well at Augusta, outside of his relatively meager distance game, but without knowing if he’s healthy, it’s really tough to put any faith in him.
- Steve Stricker: I love Stricker, and I respect his decision to play a reduced schedule, but playing Augusta is tough enough as it is when you’ve been playing, let alone making it only your fifth start of the year. Granted, he’s been playing well in those limited starts, but it just doesn’t make a ton of sense to put money on a guy who hasn’t been playing when the competition is this good. Also, only has one top-10 in the last decade at Augusta.
- Bubba Watson: Repeat winners have happened in the past at Augusta, with Woods (2001 and 2002), Nick Faldo (1989 and 1990) and Jack Nicklaus (1965 and 1966) accomplishing the feat, but it’s obviously a rarity. Watson’s had a good start to 2013, with his missed cut at the Northern Trust Open being the only event this season where he’s finished outside of the top-20, but his stats haven’t been great in the past few weeks despite the decent finishes. On to my picks for the first major of 2013.
Justin Rose (Best Odds 21-1 at Pinnacle)
You can make the argument that nobody had a better year in 2012 than Justin Rose. In his 26 worldwide starts, he posted one win and had thirteen other top-10’s. So far in 2013, his worst stroke play finish was a tie for 16th in Qatar and he’s got two runner-ups to go along with a T-4 at the Honda and T-8 at the Cadillac. In seven appearances at the Masters, he’s never missed the cut and has five top-25’s. The time is right for Rose to get his first major championship.
Keegan Bradley (Best Odds 29-1 at BETDAQ)
I really like to try and fade the public, which is why I was getting a little concerned a few weeks ago when Bradley was near the top of the board with Schwartzel and others. For some reason, Bradley’s four consecutive top-10’s have scared people off, as his 29-1 number has gone up recently. He does everything well, and had a decent showing last year in his first trip to Augusta National, finishing tied for 27th. He went to the course a few weeks ago with Phil Mickelson to get some prep work in, which is never a bad thing. I don’t enjoy watching him play, but there’s no denying his talent.
Luke Donald (Best Odds 40-1 at Pinnacle)
I know he’s never won a major, but this number is ridiculous. The only knock on Donald’s game is that he’s pretty short off of the tee, but everything else is so good, that he should always be considered a threat to win. Before Ernie Els and McIlroy won the final two majors of 2012, the previous nine winners were first-time major champions, and with so many good players in the field that have yet to grab that first major, it’s very possible that we see ten of the last twelve here. Donald’s got as good of a chance as any of those guys.
Sergio Garcia (Best Odds 51-1 at Betfair)
One of the knocks on Sergio Garcia over the years is that sometimes his mouth has opened before he thinks, and that definitely happened last year after the Masters when he told reporters that he didn’t think he was good enough to win a major. Does he actually believe that? I don’t think he does, and he did say afterwards that he didn’t really mean what he said. If we’re talking about sheer talent, he’s got every tool in the book and I do think he’ll get one eventually. 13 straight top-25’s, including two wins before withdrawing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’ll probably keep betting him to my detriment until he wins one.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 52-1 at BETDAQ)
Much like Rose, Poulter has never won a major and has also made the cut in each of his Masters appearances. It’s been 33 events since Poulter was cut anywhere actually, dating back to the 2011 Deutsche Bank, mostly because his putter and short game are good enough to keep him in any event that he enters. When Poulter finished in solo seventh last year, he was second in both scrambling and putts per round. People have said that his issue is that his mentality is better suited for match play events and that he is too tightly wound to win a major, but I disagree. His 16 professional wins suggest that there’s more there than just a good match play player.
Peter Hanson (Best Odds 94-1 at Betfair)
Hanson finished tied for third here last year, and I guarantee you that almost nobody in North America would be able to tell you that he is the world’s 22nd ranked player. He’s finished outside of the top-25 once in his last eleven starts and like Poulter, he is a world-class putter. Over the last three months, Hanson has been averaging 27.08 putts per round on the European Tour and 27.40 on the PGA Tour, ranking first and fifth in those areas. I think he’s a great each-way bet.
Enjoy the tournament, everyone.
Martin Laird wins the Valero Texas Open
Posted on April 7, 2013 Leave a Comment
Martin Laird fired an impressive final round 63 while 54-hole leader Billy Horschel struggled to a round of 71, giving Laird the win at the 2013 Valero Texas Open. The win gives Laird the last spot in next week’s Masters, and also ends the run of 14 consecutive victories on the PGA Tour for American-born players.
What happened
Laird’s first three rounds this week were nothing special, shooting rounds of 70-71-70, but he started out hot in Sunday’s final round with five birdies in his opening nine holes. Another birdie on 12 was surrounded by all pars until he got to 15 where Laird would birdie his final four holes to open up a three shot lead when he got into the clubhouse. Prior to this week, Laird’s best finish on the PGA Tour this season was a tie for 34th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a few weeks ago, but he’s not a random PGA Tour journeyman. Laird did get to 21st in the world rankings a few years ago, and the win today gives him his third career PGA Tour win. In case you’re curious, his prior finishes at the Masters are a T-20 in 2011 and a T-57 last year.
Horschel just never seemed to get anything going, mostly because he couldn’t hit any greens, and he had the highest final round score of anyone who finished inside the top-15. Rory McIlroy put in a very good final round 66 with eight birdies to finish alone in second place, making the suggestion from caddie JP Fitzgerald to come out this week prior to the Masters seem like a good one. It’s a disappointing end to the week for several players who were hoping to grab that last spot at the Masters, including Horschel who had a two-shot lead coming into today’s final round, but with only one spot available, Laird will be going to Augusta National.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Martin Laird -14
- 2. Rory McIlroy -12
- T3. Billy Horschel -11
- T3. Jim Furyk -11
- T3. Charley Hoffman -11
Shots of the tournament
First, we have Luke List hitting what should be an impossible shot through some sort of forest and getting it to within a couple of feet from the hole:

Secondly, Steven Bowditch does something here that I wouldn’t recommend anyone attempting, but when you have a bunker in the middle of a green, you have to improvise.

If you do decide to do that on a green, Bowditch even shows you how to properly repair the divot.

Shank City
Obviously when you watch professional golf, you want to see quality play, but every now and then, it’s fun to watch the pros do something that you’d do on the course. One of the things that you do on the course is cold shank the ball. Enter Germany’s Marcel Siem:
If you think that was bad, take a look at Hunter Haas hit a shot that I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t hit on the course:
Making the most of a bad break
Shawn Stefani had a tough week, missing the cut after rounds of 78 and 75. Playing the par-5 18th in Thursday’s opening round, Stefani got a horrible break when hitting his approach shot into the green.

That’s Stefani hitting a sprinkler head and winding up in the hazard. Instead of taking a drop, Stefani walked into the hazard and attempted to pitch one onto the green:

He ended up missing the birdie putt, but did tap in for his par.
Now for a good break…
Ryan Palmer hit an absolutely terrible bunker shot on the 5th hole in Sunday’s final round, but he managed to get a pretty fortunate break:
If his ball doesn’t hit McIlroy’s there, he’s got no hope of staying on the green.
Ian Poulter clearly likes the word “bitch”
A few weeks ago, Ian Poulter made it clear to his Titleist that he wanted it to sit on the green at Bay Hill. This week in San Antonio he was back at it, calling either himself or his ball a bitch. I’m not really sure which one it is, to be honest.
Spieth’s foot action is not recommended

This one doesn’t need much explaining. I’m not in a position to criticize the swing of a tour player, but man, you have to think that Jordan Spieth is eventually going to hurt himself with that kind of foot action. Of course, NBC’s Johnny Miller did something similar to this when he played, and he still manages to stick his foot in his mouth every week, so maybe I’m mistaken. Speaking of Miller…
The stupid thing(s) Johnny Miller said this week
One of the biggest image problems that golf has, both professional and recreational, is that it’s an exclusionary society that requires way too much time and money. Miller was talking about Rory McIlroy’s decision to play this week at the suggestion of caddie JP Fitzgerald, and he suggested that playing TPC San Antonio was a good place to play because you get to stay on the grounds and you get to avoid all of the hassle of driving to the course every day. Right, because the people watching the PGA Tour every week are really going to feel bad if a guy has to drive to the course every day. Look, I’m not saying that him keeping his mouth shut here would get rid of the image problem, but him saying it doesn’t help things in the least.
Sunday’s final round also featured this line from Miller about Jeff Overton as he was standing over a putt: “He was looking at his yardage book like a monkey in a gunny sack. Looked like he had no idea.” Does anyone have any idea what the hell that means?
Someone isn’t a big fan of Valero
I don’t really have much of an intro to this video, so I’ll just copy and paste the YouTube video description:
Activist and Tar Sands Blockader, Doug Fahlbusch, interrupts the Valero Texas Open PGA golf tournament by storming the field with a sign reading, “Tar Sands Spill. Valero Kills. Answer Manchester.” Doug was arrested and charged with resisting arrest.
Quick reminder on how good these guys are
In Saturday’s third round, Charley Hoffman and his caddie had an interesting conversation that was picked up by NBC’s cameras. Hoffman was in the fairway on the 6th hole, 133 yards out from the green and downwind. Miguel Rivera asked him how far he was hitting the wedge earlier, suggesting that it was 120 yards. Hoffman corrected him and said that it was 119. The fact that Hoffman knows that, down to a single yard, is amazing to me. You often see Tiger Woods hit a shot and ask the ball for one more yard right off the club face, and this ranks right up there with that for me.
Masters Memories: Nicklaus wins in ’86
Posted on April 5, 2013 2 Comments
” I’m walking back to the compound and Ken Venturi said, ‘How old are you, kid?’ I said I’m 26. He said ‘Let me tell you something, you may one day be lucky enough to say that you’ve seen 40 or 50 Masters, you may, but I can tell you one thing, you’ll never live to see a day like what you saw right here.’ And you know what? He was right, we never will. ”
-Jim Nantz discussing the 1986 Masters
It’s difficult to imagine, but Jack Nicklaus was an afterthought in 1986. Since winning the U.S. Open and PGA Championship in 1980, the Golden Bear had only won two PGA Tour events, the 1982 Colonial and 1984 Memorial. In the inaugural Official World Golf Rankings, published the week before the 1986 Masters, Nicklaus was ranked as the 33rd best player in the world. 33rd! Obviously being the 33rd best player in the world meant that he was still a capable golfer, but the expectations, especially when it came to major championships, were pretty much gone.
Nicklaus last won the Masters in 1975, but he was competitive in the ten events in between, picking up six top-10’s. He wasn’t considered a favourite for the event, as that honour was bestowed upon other former champions at the top of their games, such as Seve Ballesteros, Tom Watson and Bernhard Langer, as well as Australia’s Greg Norman. Counting Nicklaus out of any event, especially one that he had won five times and posted thirteen other top-10 finishes, would seem foolish, but that was the situation 27 years ago heading to Augusta.
The first two rounds did nothing to disprove these theories either, as Nicklaus opened with rounds of 74 and 71, which put him six shots back of the lead held by Ballesteros. A round of 3-under par 69 on Saturday got Nicklaus into a tie for 9th, four shots behind Norman’s lead, and before Sunday’s final round commenced, Nicklaus figured he needed to go low to have a chance. 66 would get him to 8-under par and a playoff, but a final round 65, and a 9-under par score would be good enough to take the tournament outright, he thought. Nicklaus was clearly no dummy.
Nicklaus was a few groups ahead of the leaders, which would end up being a bigger factor in the outcome than one would think, but it wasn’t an immediate advantage, as he played the first eight holes in even-par. A bogey on the par-3 12th would be the only blip on the radar for the next six holes, as Nicklaus would make four birdies and a par to climb to 5-under par as he walked to the 15th tee. In groups behind him, Norman was struggling a little bit, falling to 5-under par, but Tom Kite was making a charge, and Ballesteros got to 9-under par after a pair of eagles, most recently on the 13th.
Typically, the 15th at the Masters is a hole that players like to take advantage of, being a relatively short par-5. Gene Sarazen holed out with a 4-wood from the fairway in the final round of the 1935 Masters on the 15th, which was dubbed the “shot heard ’round the world”. Sarazen was down by three shots at the time to Craig Wood, and that hole out allowed Sarazen to get into a playoff with Wood to win the second ever Masters. Nicklaus wouldn’t need a hole out, but he knew what the situation was, down four shots to Ballesteros with only four to play, a birdie was needed, but an eagle would obviously be better. He couldn’t expect any player, much less one of Ballesteros’ quality, to come back to the field by that many shots.
Nicklaus hit a perfect drive down the middle of the fairway, and he had 200 yards left to the green. His son Jackie was caddying for him that week, and Nicklaus asked him how far he thought a three would go, and he didn’t mean a 3-iron. Nicklaus was thinking eagle the whole way, and he pulled out a 4-iron:
Jackie would say after that the ball never left the flag. With the way the clubs and balls were manufactured back then, Nicklaus couldn’t have done a whole lot better than that, especially given the situation. Nicklaus walked up to the green with a chance to get within two shots of Ballesteros’ lead, and he would tell reporters later that he knew the putt on that part of the green because he had pretty much the exact same putt almost 20 years prior and he missed because it didn’t break the way he thought it would. He wouldn’t make that same mistake again.
Mark Soltau of the San Francisco Examiner told ESPN: “I was walking back to the clubhouse and I heard a roar, and it was not your normal golf roar. This was a Bear roar.” Everyone loves a good story, and the idea that Jack Nicklaus at age 46 could win the 1986 Masters was starting to look possible, and the crowd knew it. They were fully behind the Nicklaus push. This was the guy that they grew up watching and idolizing. There was only one outcome that they wanted, and that was to see the Golden Bear wearing the green jacket one more time.
Nicklaus went to the 16th, suddenly within two shots of the lead held by Ballesteros. The pin was in its traditional Sunday position, in the back left-hand corner of the green, a spot that Nicklaus had seen dozens of times over the years.
” I knew it started right where he wanted to start it, and I said, ‘Be the right club’, and the ball honestly had not left the end of the tee. ” – Jackie Nicklaus
” And I just turned over and said ‘It is.’ I never looked at the ball, didn’t look at anything. I said it is because I knew. I knew that the ball was absolutely dead right. ” – Jack Nicklaus
You’ll notice a theme is starting to develop here. Nicklaus knows his swing and the course so well that he could probably play it with a blindfold on. Perhaps more importantly, the amped up crowd was starting to affect the other players on the course. After Nicklaus’ tee shot, Watson had to wait to attempt his eagle putt on 15 because the noise was so loud. Once it died down a little bit, Watson quickly put his ball down, missed his eagle putt and moved on, while Nicklaus had a short four footer to get within one of Ballesteros.
Seve Ballesteros was an interesting individual. He always thought the world was out to get him in some way, and that if something bad was going to happen, it would likely strike him at the worst possible moment. If you believe golf is the ultimate mental game, his winning of five majors and ninety-one professional titles is a real testament to the talent that Ballesteros possessed if that was his mindset going into a round. With Nicklaus’ made putt on 16, the crowd was going nuts, and much like Watson, it was enough to distract Ballesteros, who was in the middle of the fairway on 15, in a very similar spot to Nicklaus from about thirty minutes prior. He still had a one-shot lead on Nicklaus, but Ballesteros was said to be concerned about when the next roar was going to come, and he was also in-between a 4 and 5-iron. With the lake in front of the green, Ballesteros hit the 4-iron.
The reaction to it happening was pretty much exactly what you’d expect. Again, courtesy ESPN:
Tom Kite: “It was such a pathetic shot. He hit the ball five or six inches fat. It’s one of the worst shots I’ve ever seen a great player hit under tournament conditions. ”
Guy Yocom (Golf Digest): “It’s the only time I’ve seen a player of Seve Ballesteros’ quality choke like that and it was a choke. ”
Bill Elliott (London Daily Star): “Two weeks later I asked him about it and he looked at me and his eyes were almost blank and he said ‘I don’t know why that happened. I have no idea how that happened.’ “
Ballesteros putting that ball in the lake pretty much took him out of it mentally, even though he only ended up losing a shot. As soon as that ball went in the lake, a cheer went up from the crowd. Nick Price said that it was pretty obvious that Ballesteros was upset and hurt by that roar going up, even though I still think it was more of a cheer for Nicklaus dodging a bullet than it was people being happy that Seve plunked one. With Nicklaus further ahead on the course, Norman was in the last group and made birdies on 14 and 15 to get within one of the lead, but Nicklaus had an 18-footer for birdie on 17 to get to 9-under par and take a one-shot lead.
Jackie read it as a left-to-right putt, but in his dad’s words, “No, you always have to remember where Rae’s Creek is. All putts tend to favour a break towards Rae’s Creek.” We’ve all seen this clip before.
Jack Nicklaus, at age 46, was now walking to the 18th tee with a one-shot lead at the Masters. It’s hard to tell if he’s joking or not, but Nicklaus has always said that he’s gone back and tried to hit that same putt again, and the ball never goes back to Rae’s Creek. After hitting the putt, Nicklaus looked like he couldn’t believe what was happening.
With a one-shot lead heading to the last hole, Nicklaus needed a par to reach that 65 number he talked about coming into the round. At the very least, it looked like a 65 would get him into a playoff with one of the guys chasing him. After a perfect drive, Nicklaus put his approach onto the front of the green and hit a great putt to within two feet, where he tapped in for his par, a final round 65 and a scintillating back-nine 30. Pat Summerall and Ken Venturi were crying in the booth, struggling to come up with the words to properly describe what they just witnessed. After it was over, Nicklaus grabbed his son Jackie and they walked off the 18th green, seemingly content with the knowledge that they did all they could to win the tournament, but they just had to wait and see how it would play out.
Nicklaus didn’t think it was over with the guys left on the course. Ballesteros, Norman and Kite were ranked 2nd, 6th and 16th in that initial OWGR list. They weren’t randoms trying to chase Nicklaus down. Ballesteros was the first to fall, dropping a shot on the 17th to fall to 7-under par. Kite had played his standard, consistent round of golf, making few mistakes after the third hole. A birdie on 15 got him to 8-under par, and back-to-back pars gave him a chance to birdie the 18th and tie Nicklaus at 9-under par. He hit a great approach and had that chance:
As Kite said years later, not all great putts go in.
Now there was only one player left to catch Nicklaus. Greg Norman grew up like many, idolizing Nicklaus and the Masters, and now he had a chance to ruin a magical day for his hero. Norman made another birdie on 16 before hitting an absolutely horrendous, hooking tee shot on the 17th, leaving him with a near impossible approach into the green between two trees.
After the tournament, Nicklaus said that Norman’s approach was “one of the most phenomenal second shots I’ve ever seen. An unbelievable second shot he played to put that ball where he put it.” Price said he would give him another 200 balls in the same spot and he doubted he could get it within 15 feet of where that one ended up. It’s one of those shots that gets forgotten, but man, it doesn’t get much better than that. He would make the birdie putt to get into a tie for the lead going to the 18th, where a par would get him into a playoff. His tee shot, like most Norman drives, split the fairway. It certainly looked like a playoff was the most likely option, but Norman had made four consecutive birdies, so an outright win was certainly in the cards. Then, the unthinkable happened.
Norman pushed his approach WAY right and into the gallery. Norman told reporters after the round that he wasn’t thinking about getting into a playoff, he was going for the win right away. Regardless of what he was thinking, it was probably the worst shot of his career. He hit a decent recovery shot to the back of the green, but when the putt slid by on the left side, Nicklaus had his sixth green jacket, and both men were left to contemplate what happened on the 18th.
Norman: “I tried to back off of a shot instead of hitting a hard shot, which you should do under pressure and I bailed it out to the right. It was probably one of the few poor judgmental mistakes I’ve made in my life in the game of golf. ”
Nicklaus: “I saw his swing and how he took the club away from the ball and it didn’t look like Greg. He played a very good stretch coming down the end. Why he hit that shot, I don’t know, but he did. ”
Norman: “That was my test against my mentor and a guy I’ve idolized so much. Did that have a subconscious bearing on the outcome? Who knows? Maybe it did, maybe it didn’t. “
There’s always been a notion that something supernatural happened at Augusta that day, and while I don’t subscribe to that theory, the chain of events that happened to allow Jack Nicklaus to win his sixth green jacket is crazy to think about. He needed two of the best players in the world to come back to him, and hit two of the worst shots in not only their own careers, but also in the history of the tournament. The counter to that statement would be that Ballesteros and Norman were both known to be a little flaky at times, but both of them in the same event when they were at the top of their games is still mind boggling. Did Norman subconsciously decide to let Nicklaus have the tournament? No, he didn’t. He hit a horrible shot at the worst possible time, much like Ballesteros had done a few hours before. It’s a dramatic narrative for some to run with that Norman simply didn’t want to do it to Nicklaus, but I can’t believe that it was anything more than a colossal mistake under pressure. Norman was seeking his first ever major win at the time. Any player, especially one as competitive as Greg Norman, would do anything to win a major, even if it meant stepping on the throat of his idol. Norman would go on to win two major championships, but as we’ll see in a later post, his heartbreak wasn’t over at Augusta National.
A lot of people think that the 1986 Masters was the greatest golf tournament ever based on the way everything unfolded, and in terms of drama, it’s right up there. As for Nicklaus, he hadn’t won a single tournament in two years, or a major in six. He became the the second oldest player to win a major at age 46. It was also the last tournament Nicklaus ever won on the PGA Tour. It speaks to the theory that when someone is comfortable on a golf course, they are always a threat to win, assuming they are still relatively talented. I’m not sure if Ken Venturi was correct in saying that we’ll never see something like this again, but Jack Nicklaus winning the 1986 Masters at age 46 is going to be tough to top.
Masters Memories: Couples stays dry at the 12th
Posted on April 3, 2013 2 Comments
That’s the most nervous I’ve ever been and obviously it showed. You get a break like that and I just started screaming at myself inside and you know, forget all of this stuff. Hit it left, or do anything but hit it there and how it stayed up was a miracle and so is winning the Masters.
-Fred Couples to Jim Nantz on his ball not falling into Rae’s Creek, leading to his victory at the 1992 Masters
Fred Couples entered the 1992 Masters as the world’s number one ranked player, making him the first American to hold that honour since the Official World Golf Rankings were introduced in 1986. He was also saddled with the title of best player in the world without a major championship win on his resume. The silky smooth swing, the effortless power and boundless charm were all traits that made Couples a fan favourite, and a successful player on the course, but without the major victory, Couples would definitely be thought of as a guy who underachieved.
Going into the weekend, it certainly looked possible that Couples would finally grab that first major, as he sat one shot behind leaders Craig Parry and defending champion Ian Woosnam, after firing rounds of 69 and 67 to open the tournament. While Woosnam struggled to a 73 on Saturday, Couples and Parry shot matching 69’s to be in the final group on Sunday, each seeking not only their first green jacket, but also their first major championship. Parry started out hot and actually extended his lead to three shots early in Sunday’s final round before collapsing to a 78 and placing part of the blame on abuse received at the hands of the patrons at Augusta National. The old adage is that the Masters isn’t won until the back-nine on Sunday, but Parry gave it away before that, giving Couples the opportunity to make history. Of course, he’d have to negotiate the treacherous three hole stretch of 11, 12 and 13 known as Amen Corner.
The par-3 12th, Golden Bell, plays at a measly 155 yards, and should be no more than an 8-iron for the pros. Hell, even for me, I’d be stepping up and hitting 8-iron from that distance. Of course, it’s not even remotely close to that simple. Wind swirls from every direction, perhaps best epitomized by the re-creation of the hole by the crew at Electronic Arts who produce the Tiger Woods PGA Tour video game series, as the wind direction constantly spins as opposed to staying in a stationary position. Bunkers guard the green on the front left and back right, and a steep embankment is in front of the green, just before Rae’s Creek. Video flyover courtesy of EA Sports can be seen below:
Golden Bell has been the cause of frustration and joy for many players over the years. Jack Nicklaus calls it the greatest par-3 in major championship golf, while Tom Weiskopf still holds the course record for most strokes on any hole, when he put up a 13 here in 1980 after donating five balls to Rae’s Creek. The area was drenched with rain after Saturday’s third round, causing the creek to sit a little higher than normal, and as usual, players were having trouble with the traditional Sunday hole placement, middle right.
As Couples approached the par-3 12th hole, he had a three-shot lead over good friend and mentor Raymond Floyd, who was playing in the group ahead. Lanny Wadkins made an eight there on Saturday after watching his ball roll down the embankment, as did Woosnam no more than 30 minutes before Couples got to the tee box. They’re just two examples of players who have seen their “just short” attempts roll into the creek. Couples had played the course enough times to know that there was one place not to miss, and that was short right, just in front of the pin.
You’ll notice by Couples’ reaction that he wasn’t thrilled as soon as it came off the club face. He knew where it was going and that his dream of finally getting that first major championship may have also been sunk with one poor swing. Miraculously though, this is where his ball ended up:
That had never happened before at Augusta, and hasn’t happened since. Of the many, many rules at Augusta, one of the unwritten ones is that if you land short of the green at 12, you can add a couple of shots to your scorecard. The CBS commentary crew of Verne Lundqvist and Ken Venturi were equally amazed at the turn of events, and for how fortunate Couples was:
Lundqvist: If I were Fred, I would be running across the Hogan Bridge and getting to that ball before it rolls back into the water.
Venturi: If he makes three here, this may be the luckiest three that I’ve ever seen on this hole in my life.
Lundqvist: Think of the odds of that ball staying dry, hitting where it did. Not good.
Venturi: How many times have you seen that stay dry from there?
Lundqvist: Never.
Couples indeed did move fast to get across the bridge and hit his second shot. His pitch couldn’t have been much better, landing a few feet from the hole. Somehow, Couples was going to escape with par, and walk to the 13th with his lead still intact.
Even after seeing it happen, Couples didn’t seem to believe his own good fortune, so he pulled a ball out of the creek to test the slope. That one didn’t fall into the drink either, but it did drop further down than Couples initial tee shot. Obviously the situation and velocity with which these two balls came into the slope were completely different, but it helps to drive the point home that Couples really didn’t believe what he just saw.
After he marked his ball and waited for Parry to putt out, Couples was still in disbelief, shaking his head at what I can only assume is a combination of his shot and the luck involved with the result.
Couples would go on to tap in for par, leading Venturi to quip:
Venturi: You know something Verne, that’s like going to 12 and making five and it saying, “Ah, take a 3. You’re a nice guy, you don’t need to make double bogey.”
Couples would eventually go on to win the tournament by two shots over Floyd. If that tee ball goes into Rae’s Creek, you’d have to think that at best he makes a bogey, and then who knows what happens after that. After the round, Couples talked to good friend and former college roommate Jim Nantz:
“I have a tough time aiming away from the pin. I know the flag is to the right, and I just swing my body out there, and that’s where it went, to the right. But it just hit and kinda plugged and good for the rain.”
“The biggest break, probably, of my life,” Couples said after slipping into his green jacket. “I’m not so sure what would have happened if it would have went in the water like everybody else’s.”
Sometimes the game doesn’t make sense.
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
Posted on April 2, 2013 Leave a Comment
With only one week to go before the Masters, the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. The winner of the tournament, assuming he isn’t already qualified, will receive the last entry into the Masters next week at Augusta National.
2013 Valero Texas Open Fact Sheet
- Course: AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Yardage: 7,435 yards, par 72
- Defending Champion: Ben Curtis
- Five Consensus Favourites: Rory McIlroy, Charl Schwartzel, Matt Kuchar, Fredrik Jacobson and Ian Poulter
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 1:00 to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 1:00 to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio
The Greg Norman/Sergio Garcia design took over the hosting rights for the event back in 2010, and it has typically played as one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour in its three years in the rotation, with average scores of 73.67, 73.71 and 73.99 on the par-72 layout. Norman did listen to some player concerns recently in all areas of the course, removing some of the runoff areas and flattening several greens, as well as widening a few fairways and shortening the rough, but it’s still going to be one of the tougher courses on the tour this year. The fairways are still narrower than most, and the bunkers here are the deepest you’ll find outside of an Open Championship layout. How difficult did it play last year? Courtesy Rob Bolton of PGATour.com:
Last year, it ranked ninth in fairways hit (53.11 percent), fourth in greens in regulation (55.26 percent), fourth in proximity to the hole (39 feet, 3 inches) and 14th in scrambling (54.51 percent). Its set of four pars 5s (Nos. 2, 8, 14 and 18) averaged 4.96, highest among all non-majors for the second consecutive year. The par 3s ranked T7 at 3.14 while the par 4s finished T6 at 4.16.
Thankfully for the PGA Tour, the chance for disastrous weather this week is pretty much non-existent, but the winds will be heavy as usual, especially in Thursday’s opening round. Full course flyover courtesy of EA Sports is embedded below:
Key Storyline This Week
As I mentioned above, the Valero is the last tournament before the Masters, and there is still one spot open for the player who wins this week if they aren’t already qualified. If the player who wins is qualified, no one else will be added. One player who doesn’t need to qualify for the Masters is Rory McIlroy, who was a late entry into the field this week on the advice of caddie JP Fitzgerald, who thinks that the Northern Irishman is close to getting it all back, but he needs more reps. I think McIlroy finishes well this week, but expecting a win from anyone on a course they’ve never played isn’t usually the best idea. He’ll be in the mix at the end next week at Augusta, but I just don’t see it happening for him at TPC San Antonio.
Memorable Moment
Not all moments are memorable for good reasons. The par-4 9th is typically one of the harder holes on the course, playing as the number one handicap hole in two of the tournament’s three years, but it’s not as difficult as Kevin Na made it look in the 2011 Valero Texas Open. Na made a 16 in the opening round of the tournament, which you can watch in the video below:
Suggested Plays (All each-way)
Fredrik Jacobson (Best Odds 25-1 at Paddy Power)
Jacobson might have the ugliest swing on the PGA Tour, but the Junk Man can really play. He’s got five consecutive top-25 appearances worldwide, and despite not playing in about a month, he managed to qualify for the Masters last week based on the performances of other players, so he won’t have that Masters pressure looming over his head all week. In his three appearances at TPC San Antonio, he’s finished runner-up, T-5 and T-18.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 28-1 at Coral)
Poulter’s never played at TPC San Antonio, and I know I just said above that it’s not overly wise to place money on course rookies, but Poulter’s game suits the venue really well. He hits tons of fairways and is always going to be a threat because he’s such a good putter. 28-1 is a really good price for a player of his quality.
Cameron Tringale (Best Odds 33-1 at BetVictor)
Tringale has reeled off four top-25 finishes in his last six weeks, and has a tremendous track record at TPC San Antonio with back-to-back top-10 finishes. He’s a very good player from tee-to-green, and even when he misses, he’s one of the best scramblers on the PGA Tour. His problem usually comes on the greens, but he has the ability to go real low, as evidenced by his opening round 65 last week at the Shell.
Peter Hanson (Best Odds 40-1 at SkyBet)
Everything that I just said about Poulter applies to Hanson, except you can get him at an even better number. Always in the fairway, and the putter keeps him from falling too far back. He’s finished outside of the top-25 in just two tournaments since October.
Brendan Steele (Best Odds 51-1 at Betfair)
Outside of a T-6 in Phoenix, Steele has been dreadful in 2013, with his next best finish being a tie for 27th at the Farmers. So, why take him? He won the event here back in 2011, and he followed that up with a T-4 last year, ending up four shots back of winner Ben Curtis. That kind of track record is too good to ignore at that price.
Brian Davis (Best Odds 100-1 at SkyBet)
Davis is my dartboard pick this week for several reasons. First, he played well last week at the Shell, getting into a tie for 6th. Secondly, he’s known as a streaky player, so based on that finish last week, you could be catching him at a good time. Third, even when he stinks, he usually hits tons of fairways and putts well, and lastly, he also loves the Texas area, with six top-15 finishes there since 2009. With those traits, Davis seems like a good flyer at 100-1.
D.A. Points wins the Shell Houston Open
Posted on March 30, 2013 Leave a Comment
D.A. Points outlasted the field and more terrible weather on Sunday night to capture the 2013 Shell Houston Open by one stroke over Billy Horschel and Henrik Stenson. It’s the first win for Points since he was victorious at the 2011 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, making him exempt for not only the Masters in two weeks at Augusta, but the win also grants him his PGA Tour card for the next two seasons.
What happened
Scoring conditions weren’t overly difficult at Redstone on Sunday, with only two players inside the top-45 shooting above par, and with nearly 20 players within two shots of the lead held by Stewart Cink and Bill Haas, the potential for a shootout was high. Dustin Johnson was the first to post a number, getting into the clubhouse at 14-under par, but he knew that wouldn’t be good enough, mentioning to Steve Sands after the round that he thought there was a lower number out there with the way the course was set up. Stenson was able to finish out before the thunderstorms rolled in, getting to 15-under par and securing his spot in the Masters in a couple of weeks based on the Official World Golf Rankings. With the storm coming in, players were waived off the course and stayed in the clubhouse for almost two and half hours before a 7:30 PM ET restart commenced and Points, who had already gotten to 16-under par, simply played out the rest of his round with four pars which was good enough to win by one.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. D.A. Points -16
- T2. Henrik Stenson -15
- T2. Billy Horschel -15
- T4. Dustin Johnson -14
- T4. Ben Crane -14
What the victory means for Points
As I mentioned above, Points is now exempt on the PGA Tour for two years, and will get into the Masters in two weeks at Augusta by virtue of this win. For a guy like Points, who now has two PGA Tour wins, that first exemption means a whole lot, even more so than getting into the Masters. Points had only made two of nine cuts to start his season, and made very little money because of it, so just having the security of knowing that he’ll be able to go out and play for the next two years is huge for him. His exemption for winning the AT&T in 2011 would have expired at the end of this season.
McIlroy will play next week in Texas
The biggest news of the week came out of Rory McIlroy’s camp, as the world number two decided to enter the field at next week’s Valero Texas Open. PGA Tour rules state that you must announce your intention to enter events by the Friday prior, which is when caddie J.P. Fitzgerald suggested that McIlroy should consider entering the event, saying that a couple more rounds should leave them in a much better spot heading into the Masters. McIlroy said a few weeks ago at the Cadillac that he didn’t think he’d add events to his schedule prior to the Masters, but obviously Fitzgerald was able to change his mind. An extra four rounds certainly won’t hurt McIlroy, so it makes sense that he’d want to play next week. McIlroy was never a factor this week, firing rounds of 73-70-71-70, ending up at 4-under par, tied for 45th.
Weather delays
So far this season, the PGA Tour has had delays in seven of their fourteen events due to weather. Obviously there isn’t much they can do about that, but the one thing that could be done is the re-configuration of tee times to ensure that tournaments actually finish on time. There are a myriad of things they could do, from putting players in groups of three, to going off on split tees, which isn’t ideal for tournament conditions, but it’s better than having a Monday finish like last week, or playing in near darkness which we’ve also seen recently. They won’t come out and say this, but the only reason they ended up trying to squeeze in a finish yesterday was because there’s only one week left to qualify for the Masters, which comes by way of winning in Texas this week. For players like Steve Wheatcroft, who need to get into the tournament by playing well in the Monday qualifier, a Monday finish to the Shell would have ensured that he missed his 8:17 AM tee time.
The other thing the PGA Tour won’t say is that NBC and CBS, the two primary rights holders for weekend play, wouldn’t stand for moved up tee times. They’d rather take the chance that it doesn’t work out than play tape delayed coverage from the leaders teeing off at 10:00 AM ET. There really isn’t a great solution for it, but knowing that there’s a massive storm coming into the area, the PGA Tour should have done something to avoid problems.
Sometimes you shouldn’t even bother
I tipped Thorbjorn Olesen in my preview this week, but I definitely wouldn’t have if I had known his situation coming in. After an opening round 82, Olesen withdrew from the event, and tweeted the following:
Pulled out of #shellhoustonopen gutted.Docs advice. Had car crash on wed night. Wrecked my car. Got whiplash. Hope I’m ok for Augusta.
— Thorbjørn Olesen (@Thorbjornolesen) March 29, 2013
Love that Olesen tried to play through it, but clearly it wasn’t the best idea. It’d be great to see him at Augusta, but I’m not overly optimistic at this point.
1…2…3?
You’d think that keeping track of your score would be an easy thing to do on the course, especially for guys who do it all the time, but apparently that’s not the case. Guys are disqualified on a pretty regular basis for signing an incorrect scorecard, assuming that they sign for a lower number than they actually scored. That wasn’t the case for Hank Kuehne this week, who actually signed for a higher score than he scored on the par-3 14th in Friday’s second round. Kuehne actually birdied the hole, but marked down a par, which gave him a 72 instead of his actual 71 and even though that doesn’t get you disqualified, the PGA Tour makes you take that higher score. Now, for a long time on Friday, that miscue looked like it was going to cost Kuehne his spot on the weekend, as he was going to miss the cut by one. He ended up missing the cut by two, but it’s still an important thing for Kuehne, as the big hitter is on his way back from a slew of injuries, and is on his major medical exemption. He’s only got two starts left to make $561,833 or he loses his card, so it’s not looking good for Kuehne.
Wedges are overrated anyway
This didn’t happen in Houston this week, but it was too good not to share. Johan Edfors was playing on the European Tour this week in Morocco, and he had a bit of a tough week, missing the cut after rounds of 76 and 74. He’s known for having a bit of a temper, and he showed that off again, as apparently he wasn’t a fan of his wedges, snapping a pair of them in frustration:
Good thing he doesn’t pay for those.
Other notes
- Notables missing the cut this week: Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace, Hunter Mahan, Michael Thompson, Retief Goosen, John Huh, Ryo Ishikawa, Bo Van Pelt, Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Casey.
- In addition to Olesen’s WD, Erik Compton withdrew citing fatigue and illness, while Sean O’Hair pulled out with a back problem. It’s O’Hair’s second WD of the season after pulling out of the Northern Trust in the middle of February.
- While Points got in the Masters based on his win this week, Marcel Siem ended up missing out by one ranking spot in the OWGR, despite winning in Morocco. When Stenson got to 15-under par, it basically sank Siem’s chances.
Shell Houston Open Betting Preview
Posted on March 26, 2013 Leave a Comment
One week after Tiger Woods reclaimed the world’s number one ranking, Rory McIlroy is back in action with a chance to get it back, and he’ll be joined by Keegan Bradley, Phil Mickelson and a stacked field at the Shell Houston Open from Redstone Golf Club in Humble, Texas.
2013 Shell Houston Open Fact Sheet
- Course: Redstone Golf Club
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Yardage: 7,441 yards, par 72
- Defending Champion: Hunter Mahan
- Five Consensus Favourites: Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson and Hunter Mahan
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 1:00 to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 1:00 to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Key Storyline This Week
For the first time since August of 2012, Rory McIlroy is not the number one ranked player in the world. With his win on Monday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods surpassed the 23-year old Northern Irishman, but McIlroy can take it back from the idle Woods this week with a win at Redstone. It’s been an interesting start to the season for McIlroy, starting with the switch to Nike gear and his early season struggles, but his final round 65 at the Cadillac a few weeks ago drove the point home that he’s going to be just fine with more reps. We haven’t seen him since then, as he’s opted to skip the last two weeks, and he’s planning on using this week as his final tuneup before the Masters in the second week of April. The friendly rivalry between McIlroy and Woods is also starting to pick up:
Rory McIlroy on a text message he got from Tiger Woods this morning: “He told me to get my finger out of my ass and win this week.”
— Jason Sobel (@JasonSobelGC) March 26, 2013
When a player of McIlroy’s ability is in the field, he’s always going to be the guy to watch, but the combination of his lack of events to this point in the year and his record at Redstone, albeit in a small sample size, has me doubting his ability to win this week. You can never be surprised if it happens, and I do think there’s decent value on him this week at roughly 10-1, but that’s not where my money will be going.
Redstone Golf Club
Redstone doesn’t typically play as an overly difficult track with the course average being under par in three of the last four years, but the greens will cause fits for most players. The putting surfaces are large, but also tend to be very fast with a Stimpmeter rating of around 13. For a point of reference, the USGA usually has their faster greens at around 11 for the U.S. Open, while Augusta National tends to run at about 12.5, so players will be dealing with some incredibly fast, and undulating surfaces this week.
The 488-yard par-4 18th is the toughest hole on the course, with a massive lake guarding the entire left side of the fairway and a huge bunker on the right. The same setup runs all the way to the green, with many players likely to attempt a bail out on the right, and hoping to avoid the greenside bunker. It has played as the number one handicap hole on the course in four of the last five years, with an average score of 4.34 in 2012. For a full course flyover, watch the video below:
Suggested Plays (All each-way except for Bradley and Mahan)
Keegan Bradley (Best Odds 14-1 at bet365)
Bradley is trending in the right direction at the moment, with three consecutive finishes inside the top-7, all against good fields at the Honda Classic, WGC-Cadillac and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bradley hasn’t been putting as well as he usually does to start the year, but he’s been rolling it better in the last couple of weeks, and his other stats have been off the charts recently, including hitting 82.1% of his fairways last week. He posted four under-par rounds here last year en route to a fourth place finish, and keep in mind that one of his other PGA Tour wins happened in the area at the 2011 Byron Nelson Championship.
Hunter Mahan (Best Odds 18-1 at Betfair)
I’ve said before that taking defending champions is usually a kiss of death, but Mahan’s record at Redstone is too good to ignore. In seven appearances at this event, Mahan has finished inside the top-11 five times, and only 3 of his 24 career rounds here have been over-par. He hasn’t had a poor tournament since the opening event of the year, and 18-1 seems like it’s a little high for a player with his pedigree at Redstone.
Henrik Stenson (Best Odds 50-1 at Ladbrokes)
Stenson was one of the few players last week at Bay Hill to have four solid rounds, ending up in a tie for 8th. Granted, it’s his first top-10 on the PGA Tour since the Puerto Rico Open last March, but he did have a very good season in 2012 on the European Tour, with seven top-10’s and a win at the South African Open. In two previous visits to Redstone, he’s never been over-par in eight rounds, and has picked up a T-21 and a T-3.
Thorbjorn Olesen (Best Odds 66-1 at Ladbrokes)
Olesen has never played at Redstone, but that was also the case at Bay Hill last week and he finished in a tie for 7th, which gave him his third top-10 of 2013. His game can be a little inconsistent, but he’s usually one of the better putters and ball strikers out there every week, regardless of the tournament he’s playing in. He’s also a better player when he’s playing a lot, as opposed to when he takes a break, so you could be catching him just on the upswing after last week’s solid result.
Geoff Ogilvy (Best Odds 80-1 at Stan James)
When Ogilvy finished as the runner-up to Michael Thompson a few weeks ago at the Honda, I figured he was starting to break out of his nearly two-year long funk, which has seen him fall far enough out of the picture that he’s just barely qualified for the Masters next month. Since that runner-up, he’s finished T-47, T61 and missed the cut last week at Bay Hill. A good finish this week will ensure that he stays qualified for the Masters, and fortunately for him, his track record at Redstone is solid. He did miss the cut in his last appearance here in 2010, but he was tied for sixth in 2009, and was the runner-up to Johnson Wagner back in 2008. There’s a lot riding on this for Ogilvy, and I think he comes through.
John Huh (Best Odds 94-1 at Betfair)
A final round 80 derailed any chances of Huh catching Woods last week at Bay Hill, but his first three rounds had him only a few shots back of Woods going into Sunday. After winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2012, it’s been a bit of a rough start for Huh in 2013, but last week could be a sign of him starting to break out. He finished tied for 14th last year in his lone appearance at Redstone.
Tiger Woods gets eighth win at Bay Hill
Posted on March 25, 2013 3 Comments
He had to wait an extra day due to the terrible weather conditions on Sunday, but Tiger Woods won his 77th PGA Tour event on Monday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It’s the third win in six starts worldwide for Woods in 2013, and his eighth career triumph at Bay Hill, which ties Sam Snead’s PGA Tour record for most career wins at one venue. The victory also moves Woods back to number one in the Official World Golf Rankings, leapfrogging Rory McIlroy, who wasn’t in the field this week. It’s the first time that Woods has been ranked as the world’s number one player since he lost the title to Lee Westwood on October 30th, 2010.
What happened
Woods entered the final round with a two-shot lead over Rickie Fowler, and it was mostly due to his putting. According to Justin Ray of ESPN, Woods not only led the field in strokes gained putting this week at 2.81, he also bested his own personal mark of 2.34, set at the 2004 Wachovia Championship. It’s an impossible thing to back up with stats, but it just seemed that whenever he got on the greens this week, that putts were either going to drop, or he wasn’t going to leave himself with a difficult two-putt. We saw this same thing a few weeks ago at the Cadillac after he got that impromptu putting lesson from Steve Stricker, and there’s an argument to be made that when he putts like this, Woods is pretty much impossible to beat. Now, it wasn’t all positive for Woods, as his tee shots were leaking and the approaches into greens could have been better, but that’s probably just a case of looking too hard for faults, especially when he putts like this:
The sick synopsis: According to Shotlink, Tiger was 19-of-28 on putts between 7 and 20 feet this week.
— Doug Ferguson (@dougferguson405) March 25, 2013
For Woods, the obvious focus is now on the majors, and most notably, the Masters in a couple of weeks. He’s been installed as the heavy favourites by the bookmakers, and it’s expected that he will be taking home his fifth green jacket, despite not winning the tournament since 2005. With a field as good as the one that will be at the Masters, it’s a little ludicrous to assume that one player has a huge advantage, but considering Woods’ track record at Augusta and the manner in which he’s dominating the game right now, it’s easy to see him picking up his first major since the 2008 U.S. Open. As nice as these wins are, Woods will always be judged on his major championship performances, and until he wins another one, fairly or unfairly, there will be questions about where his game is.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Tiger Woods -13
- 2. Justin Rose -11
- T3. Mark Wilson -8
- T3. Keegan Bradley -8
- T3. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -8
- T3. Rickie Fowler -8
Shots of the tournament
This is not as easy as Nicholas Thompson made it look. With his ball partially submerged in the water on 17, Thompson rolls up his pants and sticks one within a couple of feet. In case you’re ever in that position, try and play it like a bunker shot, hitting a couple of inches behind the ball, but good luck.

Also, Sergio Garcia had an up-and-down week to say the least, ending with him withdrawing after the horn sounded on Sunday halting play due to a potential tornado in the area. Before he did that, he climbed a tree on the tenth hole and hit a one-handed, backwards shot with the toe of the club and actually managed to get it back into the fairway. The entire video is worth watching:
Casual swearing of the week
If you had to pick the player most likely to swear on the course, good shot or bad, Ian Poulter would be at the top of the list. In Saturday’s third round, Poulter REALLY wanted his tee shot on the par-3 2nd to sit on the green:
Sometimes golf just isn’t fair
In Friday’s second round, Graham DeLaet nearly jarred one for eagle on the par-5 sixth hole. Unfortunately for him, his ball hit the flag and rolled 40 feet away from the hole. This really isn’t an out of the ordinary occurrence, just ask Sergio Garcia who famously complained one day after the Open Championship that those things just seemed to happen to him more than other players. What took place after with DeLaet’s playing partner Chad Campbell is what makes this unique:
Good on DeLaet for making the birdie save from long distance, which helped him get above the cut line.
The stupid thing Johnny Miller said this week
We talked about this a few weeks ago when Johnny Miller criticized the playful Twitter banter of Poulter and Graeme McDowell, but once again, NBC’s lead analyst decided to take a shot at one of Europe’s best players. During Saturday’s third round, Miller suggested that Justin Rose has underachieved in his career based on his four career victories. It’s a fair comment that Rose probably hasn’t won as much as he should have, but Miller is once again completely ignoring every other professional tour in the world, and focusing only on Rose’s four PGA Tour wins. Rose’s 13 wins as a professional is not a small accomplishment, and every single one of his four PGA Tour wins have come at big tournaments, winning the Memorial and AT&T National in 2010, the BMW in 2011 and the WGC-Cadillac last year. There’s a reason that Rose is the fifth ranked player in the world, and considered a contender in every tournament he enters. Tim Rosaforte and Brandel Chamblee from the Golf Channel referenced his four career wins before Sunday’s broadcast as well, so it’s not just Miller who is pumping the pro-American slant.
Other notes
- Notables missing the cut: Geoff Ogilvy, Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Tim Clark, Robert Garrigus, Ernie Els, Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson, Bo Van Pelt, Webb Simpson and Scott Piercy
- Fowler is taking a little bit of heat for his aggressive approach into 16 that essentially cost him the tournament, but I really don’t understand why. Knowing Woods was in the bunker, and having just cut the lead to two shots, Fowler saw an opening and took an aggressive line at the flag, and the ball ended up in the water. He probably looked at the situation and figured that with only two holes left, he needed to make a move, and he went for it. Love the mindset, it was just poor execution on his part.
- Mike Weir withdrew midway through his third round citing a rib injury. Nothing official yet, but there are reports that he could be out for a little while, which would put his appearance at the Masters in jeopardy.
- Couldn’t help but notice the name of Camilo Villegas on the positive side of the leaderboard this week. After his breakout in 2010-2011, it’s been a bit of a rough go for him over the last year or so, but the PGA Tour would love to see him get back on track. He’s a very marketable player for them, especially in non-North American markets.
- Happy to see that my darkhorse pick for the Malaysian Open this week, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, came through and won for me at 56-1. And no, I still have no clue on how to pronounce his name.
- Any chance we’ll be getting a mea culpa from Chamblee for his assertion from a few months ago that Woods needed to fire Sean Foley and go back to Butch Harmon? Yeah, right.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview
Posted on March 20, 2013 4 Comments
Coming off of a win in his last start, Tiger Woods is set to defend his title this week as the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2013 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fact Sheet
- Course: Bay Hill Course
- Location: Orlando, Florida
- Yardage: 7,419 yards, par 72
- Defending Champion: Tiger Woods
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker and Sergio Garcia
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 12:30 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 2:30 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 12:30 to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 2:30 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Bay Hill
Arnie’s Place is one of the marquee stops on the PGA Tour every year, attracting the type of field that is usually reserved for only the four majors and WGC events, but despite the quality of players entered, scoring is usually at a premium at Bay Hill. In the last six years, the winning score has ranged from 5 to 13-under par, and has been consistently difficult since Palmer attached his name to the event in 2007 and made changes to the course in 2009. Players will need to take advantage of the 4th and 16th, two par-4’s that were converted to par-5’s with the redesign and now play as the two easiest holes on the course, a stark contrast to the original design as they were the two most difficult holes back in 2008.
The signature hole is the 18th, a relatively short par-4 by today’s standards, but one that has given many players trouble over the years and has produced a ton of signature moments for others. At 458 yards, there really isn’t much to it off the tee, assuming that players can find the large fairway. Most players will be looking for a drive of around 300 yards on the left side before the fairway narrows and brings the water into play on the right-hand side. When the pin is tucked in the back-right corner, which it will be on Sunday, players will have a long carry over the water and rocks that guard the green, with a massive bunker behind it for those who go long. If they decide to bail out on the left side, they’ll likely end up in one of two traps that take up roughly 90% of the area. Last year, it was the number one handicap hole on the course, playing to a 4.29 average, the highest it’s been in the last five years.
Key Storyline This Week
Who else but Tiger Woods, right? Coming off of his win at the Cadillac a couple of weeks ago, Woods enters the field this week as the heavy favourite. The books have him listed at roughly 3-1, with Phil Mickelson being the next closest to that number at around 20-1. He’s listed that way partially because of his performance early in the season, but also because of his ridiculous track record at Bay Hill, as we see courtesy of Tour-Tips.com

That’s seven wins at Bay Hill, typically known as a “Tiger Track”. Torrey Pines is the only place where he’s won more titles, getting his eighth this year, and it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Woods isn’t in the thick of it at the end. At 3-1 I don’t see enough value there to even bother, and even though he’s playing well to start the year, it’s difficult for anyone to win back-to-back events.
The other scenario to watch play out is the return of Brandt Snedeker this week. Snedeker hasn’t played since he won at Pebble over a month ago due to a rib injury, but he still hasn’t lost his lead in the FedEx Cup thanks to his incredible run at the start of the year that looks like this: 3-23-2-2-1. It’s so tough to predict how a player does when coming back from an injury, so I’m going to wait it out with him and see what happens. I won’t be surprised to see him win this week or bomb out, but it’s worth noting that he’s never played really well at Bay Hill, with his best finish being a tie for 14th back in 2008.
Suggested Plays
Justin Rose (Best Odds 20-1 at Bet365)
Rose has finished in the top-25 in eleven straight events worldwide, and 23 of 31 events dating back to the beginning of last season. His putter sometimes causes problems for him on occasion, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a better tee to green player in the world, and he does have four top-25 finishes in his career at Bay Hill, including a T-3 here in 2011. Coming off of a T-8 at the Cadillac and a T-4 at the Honda, Rose is simply playing too well to ignore.
Sergio Garcia (Best Odds 22-1 at bwin)
Much like Rose, Garcia has been ridiculously good over the past little while. He hasn’t finished outside of the top-25 since the PGA Championship at Kiawah last August, and only one of those rounds (Barclays at Bethpage Black) has been higher than a 73, which would be impressive for anyone, but especially so for the streaky Garcia. He’s got six top-10’s in 11 career starts at Bay Hill, and while his ball striking has remained superb, his putting has actually started to come around. Garcia’s my favourite play this week.
Graeme McDowell (Best Odds 25-1 at BetVictor)
After missing the cut in his first start of 2013, McDowell went 3-1 in the Match Play and has followed that up with back-to-back top-10 finishes. He’s finished as the runner-up twice at Bay Hill, once in 2005 to Kenny Perry and last year to Woods where he fired a second round 63 before fading away on the weekend.
Jim Furyk (Best Odds 41-1 at Betfair)
Speaking of fading away on the weekend, here’s Jim Furyk! Furyk actually played well for much of last week until Sunday when he couldn’t close another tournament, falling five shots short of the mark set by Kevin Streelman at the Tampa Bay Championship, but 41-1 is simply too high for him. He’s been playing pretty well to start the year, and hasn’t finished outside of the top-11 at Bay Hill in the last three years. A first round leader bet is something to consider with Furyk, but keep in mind that he’s been sub-70 once in opening rounds at Bay Hill since 1996.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 47-1 at Betfair)
Poulter’s four missed cuts in seven events at Bay Hill don’t exactly inspire confidence, but he has finished T-12 and solo third in the last two years, plus he’s been playing well enough that the 47-1 number seems a little too high. His best attributes, putting and accuracy off the tee, will always keep him in contention.
Graham DeLaet (Best Odds 162-1 at BETDAQ)
This isn’t the first time that I’ve suggested DeLaet as a play, and I’ll probably keep doing it at these prices. He’s too good of a ball striker to not win an event sometime soon, and his putting has been improving, so why not at 162-1? He’s finished inside the top-20 in each of the last three events, so he is getting closer. You can do far worse at that kind of a number.


























