WGC-Accenture Match Play: Round of 64 Preview
English: Luke Donald during The Heritage Pro-Am in Hilton Head, SC (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Starting on Wednesday, 64 of the world’s best golfers will tee it up in the 15th annual WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship at the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus-designed course at Dove Mountain in Marana, Arizona. It’s a bracket format, with 32 head-to-head matches taking place on Wednesday and finishing on Sunday. The only players inside the top-64 in the world who are not taking part in the event are Brandt Snedeker and Phil Mickelson. Snedeker pulled out recently with a rib injury, while Mickelson is taking the week off to spend time with his family. Match play events are always dartboard events because each player is so good, that it rarely matters who the better player is in a given match-up. All of these guys can go low, even the 16-seeds, so it’s never an exact science.
Below are my thoughts on the 32 Wednesday matches. Two things to note about the data:
- All odds are from Bet365
- Stroke Play H2H records go back to 2001, and include events only when they were playing partners.
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: McIlroy leads 2-0
- McIlroy’s Career Match Play Record: 14-7-1
- Lowry’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: McIlroy -275/Lowry +220
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Pettersson leads 2-1-1
- Fowler’s Career Match Play Record: 2-2-1
- Pettersson’s Career Match Play Record: 1-3
- Odds: Fowler -162/Pettersson +125
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Tied in only round together
- Johnson’s Career Match Play Record: 4-5
- Noren’s Career Match Play Record: 0-1
- Odds: Johnson -175/Noren +137
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Harrington leads 13-5
- McDowell’s Career Match Play Record: 13-9
- Harrington’s Career Match Play Record: 22-21
- Odds: McDowell -120/Harrington -105
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Watson’s Career Match Play Record: 5-6
- Wood’s Career Match Play Record: 0-1
- Odds: Watson -187/Wood +150
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Furyk leads 2-1
- Furyk’s Career Match Play Record: 19-18-1
- Moore’s Career Match Play Record: 3-3
- Odds: Furyk -110/Moore -110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Tied in only round together
- Schwartzel’s Career Match Play Record: 8-8
- Henley’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Schwartzel -200/Henley +160
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Day leads 3-1-2
- Johnson’s Career Match Play Record: 9-11
- Day’s Career Match Play Record: 3-3
- Odds: Day -137/Johnson +110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Oosthuizen’s Career Match Play Record: 1-5
- Ramsay’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Oosthuizen -225/Ramsay +175
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Garrigus’ Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Grace’s Career Match Play Record: 1-1
- Odds: Garrigus -150/Grace +120
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Bradley’s Career Match Play Record: 1-2
- Fraser’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Bradley -200/Fraser +160
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Jacobson leads 2-1
- Els’ Career Match Play Record: 30-21
- Jacobson’s Career Match Play Record: 2-4
- Odds: Jacobson -120/Els +105
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Choi leads 6-3-2
- Rose’s Career Match Play Record: 9-10
- Choi’s Career Match Play Record: 8-11
- Odds: Rose -175/Choi +137
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Haas’ Career Match Play Record: 0-3
- Colsaerts’ Career Match Play Record: 9-4
- Odds: Haas -137/Colsaerts -110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Garcia leads 5-1
- Garcia’s Career Match Play Record: 21-20-1
- Jaidee’s Career Match Play Record: 3-1
- Odds: Garcia -162/Jaidee +130
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Kuchar’s Career Match Play Record: 9-6
- Fujita’s Career Match Play Record: 0-1
- Odds: Kuchar -250/Fujita +187
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Woods leads 3-0-1
- Woods’ Career Match Play Record: 44-13-2
- Howell’s Career Match Play Record: 6-7
- Odds: Woods -225/Howell +175
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Castano leads 9-8-2
- Castano’s Career Match Play Record: 0-1
- Molinari’s Career Match Play Record: 3-4-2
- Odds: Molinari -137/Castano +110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Simpson’s Career Match Play Record: 0-3
- Lynn’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Simpson -225/Lynn +175
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Hanson leads 3-2-2
- Hanson’s Career Match Play Record: 5-9
- Bjorn’s Career Match Play Record: 11-15-1
- Odds: Hanson -162/Bjorn +130
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Westwood leads 3-0-1
- Westwood’s Career Match Play Record: 27-22-1
- Cabrera-Bello’s Career Match Play Record: 4-2
- Odds: Westwood -200/Cabrera-Bello +160
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Kaymer’s Career Match Play Record: 14-12
- Coetzee’s Career Match Play Record: 0-1
- Odds: Kaymer -137/Coetzee +110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Dufner’s Career Match Play Record: 1-1
- Sterne’s Career Match Play Record: 0-2
- Odds: Dufner -150/Sterne +120
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Mahan’s Career Match Play Record: 15-6-1
- Manassero’s Career Match Play Record: 3-2
- Odds: Mahan -150/Manassero +120
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Donald leads 2-0-2
- Donald’s Career Match Play Record: 24-11
- Siem’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Donald -225/Siem +175
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Lawrie’s Career Match Play Record: 12-8-1
- Piercy’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Piercy -150/Lawrie +120
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Stricker leads 2-1-1
- Stricker’s Career Match Play Record: 15-14
- Stenson’s Career Match Play Record: 16-9
- Odds: Stricker -110/Stenson -110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Toms leads 6-2-2
- Toms’ Career Match Play Record: 29-12
- Watney’s Career Match Play Record: 7-3
- Odds: Watney -200/Toms +160
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Scott leads 4-3-1
- Scott’s Career Match Play Record: 16-7
- Clark’s Career Match Play Record: 7-11
- Odds: Scott -200/Clark +160
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Donaldson leads 4-2-2
- Donaldson’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Olesen’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Olesen -125/Donaldson +110
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: N/A
- Poulter’s Career Match Play Record: 28-10-2
- Gallacher’s Career Match Play Record: 0-0
- Odds: Poulter -225/Gallacher +175
- Previous Match Play H2H: N/A
- Previous Stroke Play H2H: Senden leads 5-4-2
- Van Pelt’s Career Match Play Record: 1-2
- Senden’s Career Match Play Record: 2-4
- Odds: Van Pelt -150/Senden +120
Bobby Jones Bracket
(1) Rory McIlroy vs. (16) Shane Lowry
Lowry essentially got in this event via his win at the Portugal Masters in October, and outside of finishing tied for 9th at the Volvo last month, he’s missed the cut in three of his last four events. McIlroy of course is the best player in the world, but we haven’t seen him since his much ballyhooed Nike debut in Abu Dhabi where both he and Tiger Woods missed the cut. There’s no value with betting McIlroy in this spot, but I can’t really see him losing this match. He’s a far better player than Lowry, and he almost won this event last year, finishing as the runner-up to Hunter Mahan.
(8) Rickie Fowler vs. (9) Carl Pettersson
Neither player has played in a ton of professional match play events, but Fowler is the obvious play here. Even though he missed the cut in Phoenix in his last start, he did put together back-to-back T6’s prior to that. Pettersson on the other hand has been awful over the last month, never finishing higher than 43rd and withdrawing last week at the Northern Trust with the flu.
(4) Dustin Johnson vs. (13) Alexander Noren
I honestly think that Johnson either loses to Noren, or he wins this whole thing. He’s been terrible since winning at Kapalua, and while that’s not out of the ordinary for him, it’s kinda tough to predict when he’ll break out of the funk. He’s been switching clubs and putters in recent weeks, which is the telltale sign that a player isn’t comfortable. You might not know much about Noren, but he’s a very good, consistent player who isn’t long off of the tee, but is a good ball striker and putter. I’m probably going to regret this later, but I’m taking Noren to win this one.
(5) Graeme McDowell vs. (12) Padraig Harrington
McDowell and Harrington have taken opposite approaches to start 2013, with Harrington making the Match Play his sixth event of the season, while McDowell made his debut at the Northern Trust, missing the cut. Most of Harrington’s success in match play events came when, not surprisingly, he was playing better golf. He hasn’t won a single match since 2008, while McDowell finished as the runner-up to Nicolas Colsaerts last year at the Volvo. I like GMac to come through despite the lack of events played so far this year.
(2) Bubba Watson vs. (15) Chris Wood
Wood finally got his first European Tour win this year at the Qatar Masters, but he’s really up against it here with Watson. Wood should be able to nearly keep pace with the long-hitting Watson off the tee, but he’s widely considered one of the worst putters in Europe and I just don’t see how he’s going to be able to beat Watson over 18 holes.
(7) Jim Furyk vs. (10) Ryan Moore
I don’t have a ton to say about this matchup, to be honest. Moore went on a bit of a run here in 2011 before being knocked out by Luke Donald, while Furyk has only won more than one match in a year once at this event since 2002. Slight lean towards Moore, but won’t be surprised either way with the result.
(3) Charl Schwartzel vs. (14) Russell Henley
Since coming from nowhere to win the Sony Open, Henley has gone T56-T67-MC, while Schwartzel continues to be the hottest golfer on the planet not named Snedeker. He’s finished in the top-5 in each of his last six events, picking up two wins. Schwartzel wins in a romp.
(6) Zach Johnson vs. (11) Jason Day
Of all of the first round matchups, there’s no bigger contrast in style than this one. Day gets it done with the long game, while Johnson is all about fairways, greens and the putter. At least, that’s the way Johnson usually plays, but that hasn’t been the case in 2013. This year, Johnson ranks 122nd in Strokes Gained Putting, so when you combine that with his driving distance of 264 yards which ranks him last on the PGA Tour amongst qualified players, you can see why he’s struggled. Day on the other hand, is having a nice rebound from a tough 2012. Despite the ranking, the books have made Day the favourite, and rightfully so. Day takes out Johnson in the first round.
Ben Hogan Bracket
(1) Louis Oosthuizen vs. (16) Richie Ramsay
There was a thought that Oosthuizen would fade away after winning the 2010 Open Championship, but it’s actually been the complete opposite. He’s picked up four wins and 25 top-10’s since and has jumped all the way to 4th in the Official World Golf Rankings behind only McIlroy, Woods and Donald. Ramsay’s a decent player who hits lots of fairways and greens, but really shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Oosthuizen. Ignore the poor prior record in match play, and take King Louis to advance to the second round.
(8) Branden Grace vs. (9) Robert Garrigus
Much like Furyk/Moore, I don’t have a ton to say here. Anyone who watches the European Tour on a regular basis knows how good Grace is, and when he’s on Garrigus is one of the best players in the world. To be honest, I don’t think Grace is getting enough respect here. Before missing the cut at the Joburg two weeks ago, he had three consecutive top-7’s, and is probably the most underrated player in the game right now. I like Grace over Garrigus.
(4) Keegan Bradley vs. (13) Marcus Fraser
I watch more professional golf than just about anyone I know, and if Marcus Fraser passed me on the street, I wouldn’t have any idea who he was. That doesn’t mean that he can’t beat Bradley, but I have a difficult time putting any faith behind a player who has won once in the last decade. Even though Bradley hasn’t been playing great, he should be an even bigger favourite than he currently is.
(5) Ernie Els vs. (12) Fredrik Jacobson
You won’t see many 12 seeds favoured over a 5 in this event, but it’s justified here. Els has one top-10 finish since winning the Open Championship last year, while Jacobson has a pair in the last two weeks. We talked about the contrast in styles with Day and Johnson, but there’s no bigger contrast in swing styles than that of the silky, smooth Els and whatever the hell you want to call Jacobson’s move towards the ball. Els used to be a great match play player, but he hasn’t won more than one match in an event since 2009, and clearly isn’t in the best form. Jacobson is an incredibly streaky player, and he seems to be in the middle of a hot streak, so I’ll be going with Jacobson for at least one round.
(2) Justin Rose vs. (15) K.J. Choi
Last year at this event, Choi was a 4-seed due to him being ranked 19th in the world at the time, but he’s seen quite a fall in the past 12 months. His last win on a major tour was at the 2011 Players, and he’s only been within five of the lead going into a Sunday once in the past year, and that was on the Asian Tour when he won the CJ Invitational. He’s fallen 43 spots to 62nd in the rankings, and just barely got into the event this year. By comparision, Justin Rose has 15 top-10’s since last year’s Match Play and has jumped 19 spots from 23rd to 4th in the world. He should be an even bigger favourite than he is, and I’d be shocked if Choi poses much of a threat.
(7) Bill Haas vs. (10) Nicolas Colsaerts
Despite vomiting all over himself in Sunday’s finale at Riviera, Bill Haas has been on fire in recent weeks with three consecutive top-10’s on the PGA Tour, while Colsaerts has struggled in his transition from the European Tour, with his best finish being a tie for 44th at the Farmers. Colsaerts’ 9-4 record is severely enhanced by last year’s win at the Volvo, and even though I think he’ll eventually be fine in 2013, Haas is playing too well to ignore in the opening round.
(3) Sergio Garcia vs. (14) Thongchai Jaidee
I’m going to take Garcia here simply because he’s a far more talented player than Jaidee, but Jaidee does have a good track record at the Ritz-Carlton, going 3-0 in 2010 until he ran into Ian Poulter. Both players are in good form, with Jaidee finishing inside the top-10 in seven of his last ten events worldwide, while Garcia hasn’t finished outside the top-25 since August of last year. At the end of it, I think Garcia’s too good for Jaidee, but it will go down to the wire.
(6) Matt Kuchar vs. (11) Hiroyuki Fujita
Fujita plays almost exclusively in Asia, so it’s tough to get a read on how good he really is. In 2012, the only time he played against the best competition was in the U.S. Open, Open and PGA Championships, as well as the WGC-HSBC Champions. Kuchar’s a human ATM machine, with consistent finishes across the board every year, and even though I’m not crazy about his chances this week, he should be able to get by Fujita.
Gary Player Bracket
(1) Tiger Woods vs. (16) Charles Howell III
The records don’t show it, but there is a history here between the two. Woods defeated Howell in the quarterfinals of the 1996 U.S. Amateur, but they haven’t really crossed paths since. Obviously Woods is a big favourite here, but don’t discount Howell, who was playing great until he missed the cut at the Northern Trust, and still only has two rounds over par in 2013 in 18 chances. The media would like for you to believe that Woods has been a poor match play player, but that really isn’t the case if you look at his record. The one are where he struggles in match play seems to be when he plays “weaker” competition. Losses to players like Shaun Micheel, Peter O’Malley and Chad Campbell are far more prevalent than against top players. I still think Woods gets it done against Howell, but he’s the most vulnerable of the number one seeds thanks to the matchup.
(8) Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano vs. (9) Francesco Molinari
If this was a regular stroke play event, I’d take Molinari in most instances, as he is the far more consistent player, but I like Castano here. If you look at the stats across the board over the last three months, very few players have been better than him, and he won’t have to worry about playing Tiger Woods in the opening round this year. If he does meet him down the road, I think he’ll be a little more careful with his words this time around.
(4) Webb Simpson vs. (13) David Lynn
Lynn got into this event by finishing second behind Rory McIlroy at the PGA Championship last year, and he really hasn’t done much since. That runner-up finish vaulted him 56 places in the world rankings, and it’s been downhill ever since. Simpson hasn’t been great to start 2013, but he was solid all week at Riviera, so he could be rounding into form. Simpson is simply a far better player.
(5) Peter Hanson vs. (12) Thomas Bjorn
I don’t really have a strong lean either way in this one. Both players would have liked better starts in 2013, and even though Hanson’s a better player and might be the best putter in the world, I don’t think he should be this big of a favourite. If I had to pick someone, I’d take Hanson.
(2) Lee Westwood vs. (15) Rafael Cabrera-Bello
Westwood has made it out of the first round in this tournament every year since 2007, and got all the way to the semifinals last year before being knocked out by Rory McIlroy, while Cabrera-Bello was eliminated by Jason Day in the first round in his lone appearance in the event. Cabrera-Bello did go on to win four matches at the Volvo, but he seems to fade a bit when playing against the best competition. Westwood advances.
(7) Martin Kaymer vs. (10) George Coetzee
I’m a fan of both players, but I like Coetzee in this spot. He’s been in the top-10 in each of his last four events, and he’s got the stats to back it up, too. Over the last three months, he ranks first in total putting, sand saves and par-3 scoring average, while also ranking second in driving distance and fifth in overall scoring average. Kaymer’s a good player, but I’m not convinced that he’s completely comfortable with his swing changes. Coetzee still doesn’t have a win on either the PGA or European Tours, but it’s going to happen soon.
(3) Jason Dufner vs. (14) Richard Sterne
Sterne says he’s finally healthy after nearly retiring from a back injury a couple of years ago, and after three consecutive top-10’s, including a win in his last start, he could be right. This is a tough spot for him against Dufner though, and it really depends on your logic when picking winners here. If you like current form, there are few hotter players than Sterne, but if you like overall talent, Dufner’s your guy. In an 18-hole shootout, anything’s possible, but I’m betting on Dufner coming through.
(6) Hunter Mahan vs. (11) Matteo Manassero
It’s amazing that this is the 19-year old Manassero’s third appearance at this event, but the kid has a ton of game. He’s one of the shortest hitters out there, but he’s deadly accurate and he’s performed pretty well here in his two previous outings. Mahan’s a popular pick this week considering his stellar record and win last year, not to mention that he played well last week at Riviera before his short game got in the way. Mahan deserves to be the favourite here, and even though I like Manassero, I don’t think he has what it takes to beat Mahan here.
Sam Snead Bracket
(1) Luke Donald vs. (16) Marcel Siem
There are 32 matches here on Wednesday, and there isn’t an outcome that I’m more sure of than Donald beating Siem. Since winning in France last July, Siem hasn’t finished inside the top-10 once, and Donald is not only one of the best players in the world, but he has a great record in match play. He’s one of those guys that you always expect to see at the top of the leaderboard, and this week really shouldn’t be any different.
(8) Paul Lawrie vs. (9) Scott Piercy
Slight lean towards Lawrie here, but there isn’t a match-up that provides less intrigue to me than this one.
(4) Steve Stricker vs. (13) Henrik Stenson
The odds on this one make perfect sense. With Stricker’s reduced schedule this year, he hasn’t played since Kapalua, and Stenson hasn’t been on-point yet in four events in 2013. Stricker has proven he doesn’t need to be playing consistently to be effective, but I have a tough time believing that he gets very far if he can get through here. Stenson’s match play record is mostly propped up by the 2007 WGC, which he won and he has been knocked out in the first round in three consecutive seasons by Davis Love, Ben Crane and Lee Westwood. I like Stricker here, but that might be it for him.
(5) Nick Watney vs. (12) David Toms
If the odds were solely based on the past history in match play events, Toms would be a massive favourite. Unfortunately for Toms, he hasn’t finished higher than a tie for 54th this year, despite five of his eight rounds being in the 60’s. The thing is, Watney hasn’t been great in 2013 either and it seems like he could still be trying to adjust to his new Nike clubs. In his previous three appearances at the WGC, Watney has won two matches before getting beaten out in the Round of 16. I think Toms provides tremendous value at +160, and that’s where I’m going.
(2) Adam Scott vs. (15) Tim Clark
Much like Russell Henley, Clark started out the season very hot at the Sony and ended up finishing in second place. Since then, he hasn’t done much, but he does have a decent track record at the Ritz-Carlton getting to the Round of 16 on two occasions, including a win over Tiger Woods in 2009. Adam Scott opened his season at the Northern Trust and finished inside the top-10, but he’s never done well here despite his solid match play record. I don’t think Clark has much of a chance here, as Scott should roll over him pretty easily.
(7) Jamie Donaldson vs. (10) Thorbjorn Olesen
If you’ve been reading this blog in the last few months, you know that I’m a big fan of Olesen, and I like him to beat Donaldson on Wednesday. There was a ton of hype around the new Nike athletes, and Olesen has been the best of the bunch in 2013 with a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi and a T-3 in his last outing in Dubai. Donaldson’s track record isn’t littered with success, but he did win that week in Abu Dhabi where Olesen finished in second. They aren’t the most well-known players in the event, but they are both fun to watch, and it should be a close match.
(3) Ian Poulter vs. (14) Stephen Gallacher
For whatever reason, Poulter loves match play far more than regular stroke play events. It’s probably the direct, head-to-head competition that he thrives on, and as you’d expect, he has won this event before. That win came in 2010, but he hasn’t had any success in the last two years, as he’s been knocked out in his first match in both years. Those losses came against Stewart Cink and Sang-Moon Bae, and I wonder if part of that has to do with Poulter playing down to his competition, since he seems to do well against better players. I don’t really have much to say about Gallacher, but even though he hasn’t really been playing, I’ll still take Poulter here.
(6) Bo Van Pelt vs. (11) John Senden
Both Van Pelt and Senden have started slowly in 2013, with Van Pelt firing an awful 79 on Friday at the Northern Trust and admitting afterward that he “wasn’t such a big fan of golf right now”. Van Pelt is clearly the better player, and he’s actually only had two bad rounds all year with the above 79 and a final round 81 at the Farmers. If Senden was in better form, he’d be worth a look, but I’ll hope the real Van Pelt shows up.
AdamSarson.com 