BMW International Open Betting Preview

Martin Kaymer

Martin Kaymer (Photo credit: Keith Allison)

One week after the U.S. Open, a top-heavy field heads to Germany for the European Tour’s BMW International Open at the Golfclub Munchen Eichenried.
 
2013 BMW International Open Fact Sheet

  • Course: Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
  • Location: Munich, Germany
  • Yardage: 7,073 yards, par 72
  • Defending Champion: Danny Willett
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Ernie Els and Martin Kaymer

TV Schedule:

  • Thursday – 9:00 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 9:00 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday –  8:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)

Key Storyline This Week
 
The BMW International Open signals a new run of important tournaments on the European Tour schedule, and it usually attracts a good field. In the coming weeks, the European Tour will play host to national opens in Ireland, France and Scotland before Muirfield hosts the 142nd Open Championship. The tournament also returns to Golfclub Munchen Eichenried after a one-year hiatus when the event was held in Cologne and won by Danny Willett. It usually provides a quality winner as well, with names like Paul Azinger, Sandy Lyle, Colin Montgomerie, Thomas Bjorn, John Daly, Lee Westwood, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer on the list as former champions. Broadcasters Frank Nobilo and David Feherty have also won this tournament, with Feherty winning the inaugural event back in 1989.
 
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
 
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried will host the event for the 21st time this week, and it typically plays as one of the easier tracks the players see on the schedule. The greens aren’t too fast and it’s a relatively flat design, with little to speak of in the way of undulations and hills. The only defense the course typically has are the tree lined fairways and water hazards, which come into play on ten of the eighteen holes. Historically, the players have gone low, with 13-under par being the worst winning score here in the last decade, and Daly coming away victorious after posting a 27-under par 261 back in 2001. The weather is looking good to start the week, but it will get progressively worse as the tournament goes on, with thunderstorms expected before the weekend is through.
 
Thoughts On The Favourites

  • Sergio Garcia: Garcia’s ridiculous run of form had to come to an end at some point, right? His 45th place finish at the U.S. Open last week ended a run of eighteen consecutive top-25 finishes. I think he gets back into the top-25 this week based on a less than stellar field, but I’ll be staying away at 14-1, despite his runner-up finish here last year to Willett.
  • Henrik Stenson: Stenson won this event back in 2006, and always seems to play well here, with three top-10 finishes in his last ten events. Coming off of a decent showing at the U.S. Open where he finished tied for 21st.
  • Dustin Johnson: Johnson has battled injury and consistency issues so far in 2013, and underwhelmed at the short Merion last week ending up in a tie for 55th place, never breaking par on the tough layout. In his lone showing on the course back in 2011, he finished tied for 18th and considering the track record of previous winners and their ability to go low, Johnson needs to be considered a threat this week.
  • Ernie Els: Before missing the cut here in his last appearance in 2010, Els was usually a good bet to finish at the top of the leaderboard, as he wasn’t outside of the top-26 in any of his prior entries. Coming off of a T-4 last week at Merion where he was one of six players under par in Sunday’s final round.
  • Martin Kaymer: Pretty sure that the only reason Kaymer is listed this high is because of his victory here back in 2008, as there really isn’t any reason to consider him at this point. He’s struggled badly after ascending to the top of the world rankings a few years ago, and outside of making the clinching putt for Europe in the Ryder Cup last year, he hasn’t really done much of note. Four top-10’s this season, but a boatload of bad finishes as well, so I’ll be staying away until we can see something a little more consistent.

Suggested Plays
 
Henrik Stenson (Best Odds 14-1 at bet365)
He’s got a good track record here, and in a lesser quality field, I think he is the odds on favourite. Great ball striker who doesn’t usually put himself into too much trouble, and the putter is coming around a little bit too. Considering the greens here aren’t too difficult, it could be a great spot for him.
 
Dustin Johnson (Best Odds 20-1 at Paddy Power)
Speaking of players who stand out in a lesser quality field, nobody here stands out more than Johnson. He’s going to pound the ball all over the place here, and he says he’s healthy, so I’ll take a chance on him at 20-1, even though the form hasn’t been anywhere near what we would have expected at this point.
 
Bernd Wiesberger (Best Odds 28-1 at Betfair)
This is a bet on pure form alone, as Wiesberger hasn’t finished outside of the top-14 since April, including a win in Indonesia in early May. He’s got the rare combination of power and putting ability, and the number seems just right even though he’s only got one round in the 60’s here in two appearances.
 
Ross Fisher (Best Odds 28-1 at bwin)
The complete opposite of a form bet, as Fisher only has two top-10’s all year, but his track record on the course is solid, finishing no worse than 26th in four of five events, including back-to-back top-10’s. I’m hoping that the 64 he fired in Sunday’s final round in Sweden a couple of weeks ago was a sign of things to come.
 
Thomas Bjorn (Best Odds 35-1 at bet365)
Former two-time champ hasn’t played that well here in a few years, but he’s finished inside the top-10 in three of his last four events, including a runner-up last week in Austria. Does just about everything well, including on the greens, so the combination of that and his track record is enough for me.
 
Miguel Angel Jimenez (Best Odds 45-1 at Betfred)
The Mechanic is playing in his fifth event since coming back from knee surgery, and since he missed the cut in his first event in Spain where he probably came back earlier than he should have, he’s been solid with three top-20’s, including a T-4 at the BMW PGA. Five top-10’s here in the past, including a win back in 2004.

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