2014 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

Brandt Snedeker (Courtesy: Keith Allison)

Brandt Snedeker (Courtesy: Keith Allison)

Brandt Snedeker returns to beautiful Pebble Beach to defend his title against a loaded field at the 2014 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

2014 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fact Sheet

  • Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula CC and Spyglass Hill CC
  • Location: Pebble Beach, California
  • Yardage: Pebble (6,816 yards, par 72) Monterey (6,838 yards, par 70) & Spyglass (6,858 yards, par 72)
  • Defending Champion: Brandt Snedeker
  • Five Consensus Favourites: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan and Jordan Spieth

TV Schedule

  • Thursday – 3:00 PM t:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (CBS)
  • Sunday – 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:30 PM ET (CBS)

Key Storyline(s) This Week

There really isn’t one specific angle to look at this week, but there are a couple of smaller things to keep an eye on:

  • This is the last week for players to qualify for the WGC-Accenture Match Play, as the list will be finalized on Monday according to the OWGR.
  • Even though he says he’s healthy, Phil Mickelson’s back will continue to be a point to focus on. He withdrew from the Farmers, and although he looked pretty good last week at points at the Waste Management, he couldn’t crack the top-40.
  • Graeme McDowell is making his first worldwide start in 2014, having last played at an official event at the World Cup in November, and unofficially at Tiger’s World Challenge in early December. It’s also his first start at Pebble since he was able to win the 2010 U.S. Open.
  • Prior to the World Challenge, the last time Jim Furyk teed it up was last September at the Tour Championship.
  • Three major champions at the very bottom end of the rung are in the field this week, all looking for something to rejuvenate their careers: Mike Weir, John Daly and David Duval.

Pebble, Monterey and Spyglass

As Rob Bolton mentions in his power rankings on PGATour.com, due to the uneven pars on the three courses, it’s difficult to really watch the leaderboard closely for the first three rounds and get any sense of what’s going on. Everyone in the field will get three rounds, one on each of the courses before a third round cut is made and the remaining players will head back out to Pebble to crown a winner. Regardless of what course you’re watching, you’ll be treated to some of the best scenery on the planet, as the Pebble Beach area is known for its stunning views and spectacular landscaping. Some quick hits on all three courses:

  • Pebble Beach: The shortest course on the PGA Tour played way easier than it had in years past, but with small greens and the potential for lots of wind, it can still be a stern test, even for the best players on the PGA Tour. Consistently ranked inside the top-10 on various best courses in the world lists, Pebble Beach is a favourite amongst players and fans. On a side note, the 7th at Pebble might be my favourite hole in all of golf.

  • Monterey Peninsula CC: The Monterey course was out of the rotation for a while before coming back in 2010, and it’s consistently played as the hardest of the three courses at this event ever since. Players usually have no trouble playing from tee to green here, but the greens themselves have been known to cause some serious issues for the players.
  • Spyglass Hill CC: A good combination of easy and difficult holes are littered throughout Spyglass, and you can argue that of the three courses, Spyglass presents the most difficulty when the wind is blowing.

The weather looks to be decent for the entire week, with only minimal amounts of rain in the forecast, while the wind could become an issue at points, making scoring a little more difficult than the players would like.

Thoughts On The Favourites

  • Jason Day: Day has finished inside the top-15 in three of his four appearances at this event, including a solo sixth last year where he got to 15-under par. He also showed no signs of rust whatsoever in his last start at the Farmers, finishing as one of the runner ups to Scott Stallings.
  • Dustin Johnson: Johnson has usually played well at this tournament if you ignore last year’s missed cut. In his five other appearances, he’s been inside the top-10 four times, including two wins. Don’t forget about the 2010 US Open as well, where he had the lead entering the final round before completely blowing up on Sunday with an 82.
  • Phil Mickelson: Much like Johnson, Mickelson loves this place. This will be his 19th start in the event, and he’s put together four wins along with eight top-10’s and fifteen of eighteen made cuts. You should obviously never count the guy out, but despite what he says, I’m not convinced that his back is ready to go.
  • Hunter Mahan: Ryan Moore was the sexy pick in betting previews online last week, and it seems that Mahan has taken that mantle over here at Pebble, as just about everyone seems to like him to play well. It’s hard to believe that he’s already played in this event ten times, and it’s equally difficult to believe that he’s only put together one top-10 finish in that time. Good showing last week in Phoenix with a T4.
  • Jordan Spieth: Spieth had a good finish here last year considering it was his first time at the event, ending up in a tie for 22nd, and he is coming off of a tournament where he had the 36-hole lead and was in the final group on Sunday. His back-to-back 75’s on the weekend, partially due to an ankle problem, have me a little scared though, even if it was two weeks ago. I’m going to pass on him this week until we see how he’s recovered.

Suggested Plays

Jason Day (Best Odds 12-1 at Unibet)

I hate taking the favourite in any event, but things really seem to be coming together here for Day. He’s arguably the most talented player in the field, and I think this is the spot where he finally gets his second PGA Tour win.

Graeme McDowell (Best Odds 35-1 at You Win)

I’m a little concerned that McDowell hasn’t played since the World Challenge, but realistically, these odds are too long not to like the guy. Plus, I think he’s in for a big 2014, and there’s no better place to start than this.

Pat Perez (Best Odds 53-1 at BETDAQ)

Perez only having one PGA Tour win is one of the more confusing things in professional golf, but he’s really been playing well in 2014, with three finishes inside the top-11 in four events. He actually hasn’t had an over par round in 2014, and he almost won this event back in 2002 when he was derailed with a final round 76 and ended up as the runner-up to Matt Gogel.

Aaron Baddeley (Best Odds 100-1 at Winner)

Badds hasn’t exactly had the best run of things over the last few years, but one of the few consistent positives has been his play at Pebble Beach, where he hasn’t finished outside the top-12 in the last three years. He’s still a great putter, and at this price, he’s worth it on an each-way ticket.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (Best Odds 113-1 at Betfair)

This is strictly a hunch play here, as he missed the cut in his lone appearance at the event last year. Outside of that, he got into a tie for 43rd at the 2010 US Open, so he’s not exactly running on good course form here, but he’s been playing well in Europe with two top-five finishes in his last three starts.

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