Frys.com Open Betting Preview
Posted on October 9, 2013 Leave a Comment
Jonas Blixt wins the Frys (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
The 2013-14 PGA Tour season starts this week, as the PGA Tour heads to San Martin and CordeValle Golf Club for the Frys.com Open.
2013 Frys.com Open Fact Sheet
- Course: CordeValle Golf Club
- Location: San Martin, California
- Yardage: 7,379 yards, par 71
- Defending Champion: Jonas Blixt
- Five Consensus Favourites: Billy Horschel, Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama, Jonas Blixt and Jimmy Walker
TV Schedule
- Thursday – 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Sunday – 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
Key Storyline This Week
You wanted a break from the PGA Tour? Too bad. The new schedule starts this week, which gives the players little time to rest or prepare for the new season, but they do get a six week break after this six week run to start the season. Confused? You can read up on the new season in my preview right here.
The big thing for these six events, formerly known as the Fall Series, is that they are awarding full FedEx Cup points this year, and winning the event also guarantees an entry into the Masters for the first time. For players like Jonas Blixt, who won here last year but didn’t qualify for the Masters, this is a pretty big deal.
CordeValle
CordeValle has hosted the Frys since 2010, won by Blixt, Bryce Molder and Rocco Mediate. In that time, the winning scores have been no higher than 15-under par, so you can expect some low numbers this week. The Frys has always been a tournament that surrenders low scores, even when it was played at Grayhawk, and the scoring average has gone down in each of the three years at CordeValle from over par at 71.49 in 2010 to 70.47 in 2011 and 70.26 last year.
Typically, the best putters have an advantage here, as Blixt showed last season. One thing that CordeValle boasts that a lot of other courses can’t is the difficulty of their par-3’s. Four of the nine most difficult holes on the course last year were the par-3’s, with the 236-yard 11th playing as the number one handicap hole. Three of the four played over par in 2012.
The weather is expected to be pretty much perfect for the week, with no rain in the forecast.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Billy Horschel: Usually when we go from season to season, a player’s last finish means nothing since it was so long ago, but Horschel last played at the Tour Championship a few weeks ago where he finished tied for 7th. At CordeValle, he’s never shot a round above 73, and he finished tied for 7th here back in 2011.
- Gary Woodland: Woodland had a late season renaissance win a win in Reno and a runner-up at the Barclays. He’s the longest hitter in the field and an improved short game. Finished in the top-10 in his lone appearance at the tournament last year.
- Hideki Matsuyama: Matsuyama is coming off of the Presidents Cup where he turned a lot of heads with his quality play, and in a field short on talent, he’s an intriguing play at roughly 30-1. My only caution is that he’s never seen the course before, so be wary.
- Jonas Blixt: The argument for Matsuyama could come from Blixt though, as he won here last year in his debut at the course. He did end up qualifying for the Masters with his win at the Greenbrier and got through the first three legs of the FedEx Cup before failing to get into the Tour Championship.
- Jimmy Walker: Walker made a charge here on Sunday last year with a final round 62, but he couldn’t catch Blixt and settled for a tie for fourth place. He’s a big hitter, but he struggles with his consistency. His last ten events on the PGA Tour resulted in six missed cuts, a runner-up to Blixt at the Greenbrier, and ties for 11th, 54th and 73rd.
Suggested Plays
Gary Woodland (Best Odds 20-1 at Sporting Bet)
I’m pretty high on Woodland this year based on the way he finished the 2013 season, mostly because of his improved short game. He finished well here last year, and he’s my top pick for the week.
Charles Howell III (Best Odds 50-1 at bwin)
Howell is one of those guys that I just can’t seem to get away from, even though he’s only actually won twice on the PGA Tour. He’s got far more talent than that, as he showed for a good chunk of last season despite not finding the winner’s circle again, with five top-10’s and nine top-25’s. Finished tied for 11th here last year in his first appearance at the course with rounds of 66-69-66-72.
Tim Clark (Best Odds 69-1 at BETDAQ)
Of everyone in the field this week, Clark’s odds pre-tournament confuse me the most. He’s one of the more talented guys playing this week, plus his T6 with no rounds over par last year lead me to believe that he likes it here. It could be that his last top-10 came at the Crowne Plaza in May, but at this kind of price, I’ll take my chances.
David Hearn (Best Odds 80-1 at bwin)
Hearn nearly got his first PGA Tour win last year at the John Deere, losing in the three-way playoff to Jordan Spieth and his putter is what’s going to push him towards that first win this season. Missed the cut here last year, but was T-7 back in 2011 and he was pretty consistent for most of last year. I don’t think he wins this week, but a finish inside the top-5 is very likely.
Ryo Ishikawa (Best Odds 80-1 at Ladbrokes)
Ishikawa hasn’t had the kind of start to his PGA Tour career that he would have liked, but there could be some signs of life here for the 22-year old. He had to earn his tour card again a few weeks ago on the Web.com Tour, and he did so pretty easily with top-10 finishes in three of his four events played. This is a longshot bet to be sure, but as with Howell, I’ll take talent over anything at this kind of price.
Brian Gay (Best Odds 135-1 at BETDAQ)
It’s always a little surprising when you see a player who won a tournament a few months ago, and has a decent pedigree to be placed at this kind of number, but that’s where we’re at with Brian Gay. T29 here last year, with all four rounds played under par and he’s always been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.
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The European Tour is at Oceanico Victoria for the Portugal Masters this week as well, and actually boasts more players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings than the Frys. I won’t have a full betting preview up, but here are some plays that interest me:
Miguel Angel Jimenez (30-1): Comes in to this week in good form with back-to-back top-5 finishes.
Matteo Manassero (35-1): Finished T12 here last year, and I think he’s the best player in the field, so there’s good value at this price.
Alex Noren (50-1): Coming off of some injuries, he’s got a good track record here and played decently at the Dunhill a few weeks ago.
Tom Lewis (55-1): Winner here in 2011, and is coming off of a T3 at the Dunhill.
Eddie Pepperell (200-1): Could be getting blinded by his performance last year at Wentworth, but you should never get him at this kind of price. Jump on it and hope he plays well.
Previewing the 2014 PGA Tour season
Posted on October 8, 2013 3 Comments
The Frys.com Open (Courtesy: naotoj)
Believe it or not, the 2014 PGA Tour season actually starts this week at the Frys.com Open from CordeValle in Santa Clara, California. If you had no idea that this was happening, you’re not alone as many people have been confused over the past few weeks and the PGA Tour, in typical fashion, haven’t really been providing a ton of information to the general public. I’ve answered some questions below and put together a quick preview on what we can expect over the next eleven months.
So, why is the new season starting now?
The official line from the PGA Tour is that they wanted some form of finality to their season, and with the “Fall Series” being played around this time each year, it wasn’t the finish that they wanted. Instead, the tour preferred to end the year with the FedEx Cup playoffs and the Tour Championship, which does make sense, at least when comparing the PGA Tour to other sports leagues.
What does the new schedule look like?
It’s pretty similar to be honest, with the six former Fall Series events simply marking the start of the season. The big change for these events comes in the distribution of FedEx Cup points, as they are getting a bump from 250 to 500 points awarded for whoever comes away with a win. Why did they do this? Well, in theory, it might enhance the quality of the fields in these events if the players know that they’ll be able to get a bit of a head start in these early events. $10 million can be a big motivator.
The other reason is that there was and still is a pretty real threat that if bigger names don’t start showing up to these events, sponsors like Frys, Shriners and McGladrey would pull their names and their money, forcing the tour to find other companies who are willing to spend millions of dollars on these events.
Once the first six are completed on November 17, the World Cup of Golf is back at Royal Melbourne for a week and then they go on a break until the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua in the first week of January. After that, the season picks up as usual and then ends with the FedEx Cup playoffs, which will be making a small change as well, as there will be no break this year between the Deutsche Bank and the BMW.
Presidents Cup GIFs
Posted on October 6, 2013 Leave a Comment
Hi, Graham!
It may have been an anticlimactic end to the 2013 Presidents Cup, but there were plenty of GIF worthy moments from the event. The best of the week from Muirfield Village is below.
Team USA wins the Presidents Cup
Posted on October 6, 2013 Leave a Comment
Tiger Woods and Fred Couples (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
What Happened
At several points this week, the Internationals looked to be every bit as good as the Americans, but coming into the Sunday singles, the lead was simply too big. The 14-8 advantage meant that the Americans only needed to win four of the twelve matches to retain the trophy.
Jason Day got the Internationals off to a good start, taking out Brandt Snedeker, but Hunter Mahan soon followed by taking care of Hideki Matsuyama. The Internationals continued their good run and made it a lot closer than expected when the day started, but they couldn’t catch up, with Tiger Woods closing it out against Richard Sterne on the 18th. The Americans win the 2013 Presidents Cup over the Internationals. With two matches still on the course, we’re awaiting a final score, but it’s looking like it’ll be 20-14.
The Records
| Team USA | Team International |
|---|---|
| Tiger Woods (4-1) | Adam Scott (2-2-1) |
| Brandt Snedeker (2-3) | Jason Day (3-1-1) |
| Phil Mickelson (2-1-1) | Charl Schwartzel (2-3) |
| Matt Kuchar (3-2) | Ernie Els (3-2) |
| Jason Dufner (3-1) | Louis Oosthuizen (1-3) |
| Keegan Bradley (2-2-1) | Hideki Matsuyama (1-3-1) |
| Steve Stricker (3-2) | Branden Grace (0-4) |
| Bill Haas (2-2-1) | Graeme DeLaet (3-1-1) |
| Hunter Mahan (2-2) | Richard Sterne (0-4) |
| Zach Johnson (3-1) | Angel Cabrera (1-2) |
| Jordan Spieth (2-2) | Marc Leishman (2-2) |
| Webb Simpson (2-1-1) | Brendon de Jonge (2-3) |
The Format
I’m not sure what the answer is here, but it certainly appears that something needs to be done to switch up the format of this event if the American side is going to consistently dominate like this. When the event was started in 1994, the gap in talent was at least perceived to be a lot closer than it is now. The International side in 2013 is very top heavy, and their depth just isn’t there when compared to the Americans. At this point, the event just feels manufactured in order to get some of the best players in the world, like Adam Scott and Jason Day into some form of team event, and it just isn’t working. What makes the Ryder Cup so special, outside of the fact that the golf is always terrific, is that the European side really feel a sense of pride when they suit up, whereas this just feels like a bunch of good players from all over the world who just split up when they got to the course that day.
Some would suggest combining the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup into one event, but that has obvious problems. The Europeans would never go for it, as that passion that we all love about the Ryder Cup would be severely diminished. To be honest, it might just be one of those things where the tournament has run its course. It’s had a good go in the past, but the excitement and intrigue just isn’t there anymore. The golf is still at a high level, but the event is running the risk of being irrelevant if the results are going to play out like this every time the players tee it up. Yes, it was an inspiring comeback attempt, but realistically, there wasn’t enough of that throughout the week.
The Coverage
For the most part this week, the television coverage in North America was pretty good, especially if you’re in the pro-NBC camp. One thing that has become pretty apparent, at least in my view is that Golf Channel’s Frank Nobilo, a former Presidents Cup player and assistant captain, is the next big golf media star. He’s not afraid to speak his mind, but he brings a lot more balance to the discussion than most. When you compare him to the very pro-American views of Johnny Miller and Brandel Chamblee, Nobilo is able to be critical but not in a way that seems dismissive.
The one area where the coverage was brutal was for the Sunday session where NBC inexplicably decided to air the tournament via tape delay. TSN in Canada and Sky Sports in the UK aired it live. You know what they say, there’s nothing better than a tape delayed golf shellacking. Golf Channel showing the Seve Trophy didn’t make a ton of sense either when they could have just showed this event live.
The Media
One of the interesting things for me on Sunday was to watch the media reaction to the Sunday pairings. It was pretty obvious that the Americans were going to run away with this thing unless the Internationals staged the most unlikely of comebacks, so the golf media took it upon themselves to openly pine for the captains to get together and manufacture the pairings for more excitement.
Thoughts of Woods vs. Scott, Mickelson vs. Day and Spieth vs. Matsuyama were getting the media positively giddy, but when that didn’t happen, things got testy. Here’s just a small sample:
Even though it seemed unlikely that the Internationals would stage that comeback, it’s not the job of the captains to appease the fans or the media with their pairings. Keep in mind that these are the same media types, and it wasn’t just these three, who would probably be ripping into the captains or the event for manufacturing excitement if they had orchestrated something with the pairings. Look, we all wanted it to be closer heading into Sunday, but it wasn’t. Sometimes that happens. I’m sorry that you had to watch and cover a golf event this weekend that didn’t give you enough enjoyment.
Other Notes
- The weather, as usual at Muirfield Village, was a major part of the story this week, causing massive delays and forcing the players into a lot of golf over a short period. Saturday, which was also delayed at points due to heavy rain, saw three separate sessions started or finished. The course actually held up pretty well, and the crew who worked on it deserve a lot of praise for making it as playable as it was.
- Best captains pick for either side? Brendon de Jonge, who was the most criticized selection of the four, carried Ernie Els through most of their pairings and didn’t seem to be fazed at all by playing in this event.
- Expect Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar to be the new featured pairing for the Americans in team events going forward. Kuchar’s got the right game and attitude that matches well with Tiger and they’re clearly comfortable with each other.
- Team MVPs for the week: Graham DeLaet for the Internationals and Tiger Woods for Team USA.
- Tournament GIFs will be coming in a separate post.
Presidents Cup Day Two Betting Preview
Posted on October 3, 2013 Leave a Comment
Hunter Mahan (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
Team USA got out in front of the International side on Thursday, taking a 3.5-2.5 advantage in the 2013 Presidents Cup. The second session goes on Friday, with the teams playing foursomes instead of fourballs. So, the players will be alternating shots instead of playing their own ball. Let’s look at the matches and the odds for each one, courtesy of Jeff Sherman.
Phil Mickelson & Keegan Bradley (-120) vs. Graham DeLaet & Jason Day (EVEN)
It’s tough to see Phil and Keegan going down on two consecutive days, but this wasn’t the matchup that they wanted to see. DeLaet and Day came back from three holes down against Hunter Mahan and Brandt Snedeker, so they’re going to be feeling good heading into the opening matchup of the day. Phil and Keegan are the rightful favourites here, but Phil needs to be better than he was on Thursday if they’re going to have a chance. He was pretty wayward in the opener, and they let Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen back in their match, leading to the eventual loss. Of the six matches slated for Friday, this is the one that I’m looking forward to the most.
Suggested play: PASS
Hunter Mahan & Bill Haas (-135) vs. Ernie Els & Brendon de Jonge (+115)
Coming into the event, de Jonge was supposed to be a weak point for the International side, but he was the only reason why him and Els didn’t get run off the course by Steve Stricker and Jordan Spieth. Els’ only birdie of the day came on the 17th, while de Jonge made eight in a losing effort. Els really can’t play much worse than he did on Thursday, so there is some value here with the International side. Mahan lost his opening day match, while Haas ended up splitting his, putting up similar numbers to de Jonge.
Suggested play: Els and de Jonge +115
Steve Stricker & Jordan Spieth (-200) vs. Branden Grace & Richard Sterne (+175)
Stricker and Spieth are the biggest favourites for Friday’s session, and it makes sense if watched the way Grace and Sterne played on Thursday. The South Africans were absolutely steamrolled by Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson, falling behind from the very first hole and never getting any closer. They’ll probably bounce back a little bit, but this is a bad matchup for them, as Stricker and Spieth are simply out of their league at the moment, even if they limped in a little bit at the end against Els and de Jonge. To be honest, this matchup actually might be a good thing for the International side, as they might not have a pairing that could beat these two anyway, so having their worst pair go out against them could work in their favour with the other matches.
Suggested play: Stricker and Spieth -200, even though there’s almost no value there. Can’t see them losing.
Webb Simpson & Brandt Snedeker (-165) vs. Angel Cabrera & Marc Leishman
For some reason, I’m not seeing a line here on Cabrera and Leishman, but I don’t think it matters here. Simpson was pretty bad in his opening session, leading to a halve with Scott and Matsuyama and Snedeker didn’t really do a whole lot of note either. Cabrera and Leishman never really had much of a chance in their matchup against Tiger and Kuchar, so it’s tough to really come up with a solid opinion on what to expect here, especially when we’re dealing with a player like Cabrera.
Suggested play: PASS
Tiger Woods & Matt Kuchar (-180) vs. Charl Schwartzel & Louis Oosthuizen (+160)
I know that Tiger and Kuchar played well on Thursday, but these numbers are ridiculous. There’s no way that they should be favoured by this much against Schwartzel and Oosthuizen, especially when you consider that Oosthuizen actually appears to be healthy at the moment. At -180, you’d be expecting Tiger and Kuchar to win handily, in the same way that Dufner and Johnson did, but there’s no way that happens on Friday. At the very least, I think Schwartzel and Oosthuizen will keep it close, but there’s a real chance that they win this match too.
Suggested play: Schwartzel and Oosthuizen +160
Adam Scott & Hideki Matsuyama (-120) vs. Jason Dufner & Zach Johnson (EVEN)
This is the only match the International team is favoured in, and it’ll be interesting to see how Dufner and Johnson respond to playing a team that will actually give them a challenge. This is probably going to be the most back and forth match of the day, and Matsuyama certainly didn’t look like he was nervous or unprepared in his first Presidents Cup, hitting a great approach into 18 to get the halve. I think Scott and Matsuyama come away with the win here, but it’ll be close all the way through.
Suggested play: PASS
Team USA has the lead at the Presidents Cup
Posted on October 3, 2013 Leave a Comment
After one day at the Presidents Cup, Team USA carries a 3.5-2.5 lead over the Internationals as we head to Friday. Full results are below along with a few thoughts, GIFs and videos.
Day One Results
- Graham DeLaet & Jason Day def. Hunter Mahan & Brandt Snedeker (1 up)
- Adam Scott & Hideki Matsuyama halved vs. Bill Haas & Webb Simpson
- Louis Oosthuizen & Charl Schwartzel def. Phil Mickelson & Keegan Bradley (2 and 1)
- Steve Stricker & Jordan Spieth def. Ernie Els & Brendon de Jonge (1 up)
- Matt Kuchar & Tiger Woods def. Marc Leishman & Angel Cabrera (5 and 4)
- Jason Dufner & Zach Johnson def. Richard Sterne & Branden Grace (5 and 3)
The Internationals start slow
At the beginning of the day, it certainly looked likely that the Americans would take the first day in an outright romp, potentially to the tune of 5-1 or 6-0, but after the weather delayed action for over an hour, the International side came out and fought back. I don’t believe in the narrative about teams needing a break to refocus, but for whatever reason, it seemed completely different when the players came out of that break. Even though they’re down, the International team has to be happy with their current standing considering where the day began.
Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar
There’s almost no way it seems that golfers can ever look cool, but they certainly give it their best effort, as you can see above with Tiger and Kuchar attempting to re-enact some Fresh Prince handshake/celebration/whatever. Apparently it was Kuchar’s idea, which makes sense since there’s no way Tiger would have thought up something like this, but I’m not surprised that he went along with it. Despite his reputation, he’s probably way more open than he’s given credit for. As I said to a colleague at work today though, the arrogant Tiger is still a much better look:
One thing I didn’t expect though was the slap on the ass he gave to Kuchar:
The Squirrel
Apparently U.S. assistant captain Davis Love III befriended a squirrel during the delay after he fed the furry rodent. After the delay though, the squirrel stuck around, at points being out in the open and at others, he was in Love’s pocket. Yes, I’m serious.
With everyone watching the final match, Lindsey Vonn decided to take the squirrel and put it on Tiger’s shoulder when he wasn’t looking. He wasn’t exactly impressed.
Other Notes
- Best match of the day probably goes to Scott/Matsuyama vs. Haas/Simpson, which the U.S. led for most of the way, but never pulled away. Matsuyama’s shot into 18 to force the halve was incredible.
- Tough loss for Mahan and Snedeker, who were three up on Day and DeLaet before blowing it over the last six holes.
- Phil and Keegan never really seemed to get it going today, and we really saw the worst of Phil, who couldn’t seem to find anything but trouble all day. Oosthuizen and Schwartzel won exactly how you’d expect them too, grinding it out with nothing overly spectacular.
- Ernie Els was brutal all day and his birdie on the 17th to get his side within one hole of a tie was his first of the day. Brendon de Jonge carried the group all day, and probably deserved a little better for his efforts, but that happens in match play.
- Not a whole lot to say about the last match, as Sterne and Grace were never in it at all. Johnson and Dufner thoroughly dominated.
- Tomorrow’s pairings have been announced, and I’ll take a look at those in a separate post.
Presidents Cup Betting Preview: Day One Matches
Posted on October 2, 2013 Leave a Comment
Nick Price and Fred Couples (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
The 2013 Presidents Cup starts on Thursday morning with six fourball matches, featuring all twelve members of both the American and International squads. The two captains, Nick Price and Fred Couples, made their pairings and matchups public on Wednesday, so let’s take a quick look at them and the odds for each.
Match One: Graham DeLaet and Jason Day (+135) vs. Brandt Snedeker and Hunter Mahan (-155)
In my original betting preview, I suggested that Hunter Mahan was my pick for top American point earner, but I also took DeLaet as the potential leader for the European side. I get why Snedeker and Mahan are listed as the favourites here, but in this spot, I really like the DeLaet/Day combination to come away with the first points of the tournament. Of everyone in the event, there’s an argument to be made that DeLaet and Day are the two most explosive. To be honest, I’d probably still take the International team here if the odds were reversed, so getting them as an underdog is a bonus.
Suggested play: DeLaet & Day +135
Match Two: Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama (-105) vs. Bill Haas and Webb Simpson (-115)
The only logicial explanation for why Haas and Simpson are the favourite here is that Matsuyama has never played Muirfield. It’s hard to think of him this way, but outside of Ernie Els, Scott is the senior man on the International side in terms of experience in the Presidents Cup, so I assume that’s the reasoning behind pairing him with the rookie. Matsuyama has a ton of game and there’s a good chance that he’ll surprise people here this week, especially if he plays with Scott and they get on a run.
For the Americans, I don’t really have a lot to say about Haas and Simpson. Haas has been brutal in match play situations over his professional career, compiling a 1-6-1 record, while Simpson has gone 8-6. Staying away from this one.
Suggested play: PASS
Match Three: Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel (+140) vs. Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley (-160)
The most obvious pairing of the week came in Couples’ announcement that Mickelson and Bradley would be playing together. With how well they played at the Ryder Cup last year at Medinah, it was a lock that they would be joined at the outset, especially after the glowing praise that Mickelson gave Bradley after they went 3-0 as a team last year. They both have an incredible ability to go low, and Mickelson will probably help Bradley out quite a bit when it comes to Muirfield. Bradley hasn’t exactly had the best of success here.
The International pairing here is interesting, as there’s no chance that they would be this much of an underdog if Oosthuizen had been healthy for the past few months. He withdrew from both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship with a myriad of injuries and didn’t play in the PGA Championship. Last week, he played in the Dunhill, his first tournament in over two months thanks to those health concerns and he missed the cut. He says he’s healthy, and if he is, him and Schwartzel will give Mickelson and Bradley a real run here, but until we know for sure, it’s tough to put any confidence behind him.
Suggested play: PASS, but slight lean towards Phil and Keegan
Match Four: Ernie Els and Brendon de Jonge (+130) vs. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker (-150)
Jordan Spieth was just over a year old when Ernie Els teed it up in the first Presidents Cup at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in 1994, and coming into this season, I don’t think many people would have predicted that these two would be facing off here this week, but Spieth’s incredible run really forced Couples into taking the 20-year old. Pairing him with Stricker, who usually draws Tiger Woods in these scenarios, is a perfect fit. Stricker will be able to shepherd Spieth along, not only because this is the first time he’s competed for his country as a pro, but also because he’s only seen Muirfield once. Stricker won the Memorial here in 2011 and should be the perfect compliment to him in both temperament and play style.
Els will also be working with a rookie here in de Jonge, although the Zimbabwean isn’t the traditional newcomer considering he’s 33 years old. There’s a thought that de Jonge was taken as a captain’s pick by Price because of his nationality, but he does belong here. He’s a consistent PGA Tour player despite not having won in his career, but this doesn’t appear to be the spot for him. Els has enjoyed some success here as a pro, winning nearly a decade ago in 2004, but I don’t see these two pulling it off.
Suggested play: Spieth & Stricker -150
Match Five: Angel Cabrera and Marc Leishman (+165) vs. Tiger Woods and Matt Kuchar (-185)
The big story coming into the week, as it usually is when it comes to team match play, was who Tiger was going to play with. He ends up drawing Kuchar and on paper, this appears to be a blowout win for the Americans, but I don’t see it that way. Tiger’s reputation as a poor match play player is overblown, but in a team setting, the record isn’t good at 24-28-2. Kuchar has been tremendous in match play, and with his win at the Memorial here this year, him and Tiger actually combine for six career titles at the course. That stat and the fact that Tiger is the best player in the world has led to this inflated number. So, why is it inflated?
The answer to that question is Angel Cabrera. I really believe that El Pato will be the difference maker this week because if he’s on, there is no one on the American team who will be able to beat him. If he’s off, he’s going to make you wonder why the hell he’s in the event in the first place. Playing with Leishman is interesting, as he is pretty much the International equivalent of Kuchar in that he’s a guy that doesn’t really do anything poorly, but he doesn’t wow you in any area either. When the captains picks were announced, I thought the pick was a mistake and I still think that Tim Clark was a better option, but that can’t be changed now. I think there’s some value here with Cabrera and Leishman, but I’m not confident enough in that to put anything on them.
Suggested play: PASS
Match Six: Branden Grace and Richard Sterne (+130) vs. Zach Johnson and Jason Dufner (-150)
Johnson and Dufner are the rightful favourites here, mostly because of how hot Johnson is right now. He’s finished outside the top-10 in one event since July, and Dufner’s been playing well enough that the -150 is justified. They are both very similar players, but if there’s one concern I’ve got with them it’s that Dufner has been terrible at Muirfield, missing the cut in both of his appearances at the course.
Grace has actually been pretty good in the small match play sample size that he’s put together, and he’s probably the best player in the world that most people have never heard of. Sterne hasn’t done much in the last few years because of a crazy set of injuries, but his bounce back year has put him on this team and back on the map. In terms of excitement, this match is definitely the worst of the six.
Suggested play: PASS, with a slight lean towards Grace and Sterne
Presidents Cup Betting Preview
Posted on October 1, 2013 1 Comment
Tiger Woods (Courtesy: ben_lei)
The return of team golf happens this week, as Tiger Woods and Team USA host the Internationals, led by 2013 Masters champion Adam Scott.
2013 Presidents Cup Fact Sheet
- Course: Muirfield Village
- Location: Dublin, Ohio
- Yardage: 7,354 yards, par 72
- Defending Champion: Team USA 19-15
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 12:00 P to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Key Storyline This Week
Every two years, the Americans and the Internationals get together to play in the Presidents Cup, and let’s just say that it usually hasn’t gone well for the Internationals. Since the inception of the event in 1994, nine matches have been held with the US holding a 7-1-1 record, outscoring the International side 163-135 in the process. So, how does it work? It’s very similar to the Ryder Cup, with the exception that everyone has to play on the first two days of competition. The full format is listed below, courtesy of the official Presidents Cup website:
The Presidents Cup competition consists of 34 matches:
Thursday – 6 Four-ball matches
Friday – 6 Foursome matches
Saturday morning – 5 Four-ball matches
Saturday afternoon – 5 Foursome matches
Sunday – 12 Singles matches
All matches are worth one point each, for a total of 34 points. There are no playoffs for Foursomes or Four-ball, with each side receiving a half point if the match is tied after 18 holes. Singles matches tied after 18 holes will go to extra holes until a team winner is determined. In a change inspired by the events of The Presidents Cup 2003, if the match is deadlocked at the end of Singles play, the competition will be deemed a tie and the teams will share The Presidents Cup.
So, based on history and the rosters, which we’ll get to in a minute, you’d think that the International side has no chance this week, especially on American soil, but I don’t think that’s the case. The talent gap between the best players in the world is smaller now than its ever been, and even though the Americans have more name-brand value on their side, the Internationals still boast an impressive roster, even if it’s a little top-heavy. Full rosters are listed below, and you can also check out full match play records from tons of events by clicking here.
| Team USA | Team International |
|---|---|
| Tiger Woods (USA) | Adam Scott (Australia) |
| Brandt Snedeker (USA) | Jason Day (Australia) |
| Phil Mickelson (USA) | Charl Schwartzel (South Africa) |
| Matt Kuchar (USA) | Ernie Els (South Africa) |
| Jason Dufner (USA) | Louis Oosthuizen (South Africa) |
| Keegan Bradley (USA) | Hideki Matsuyama (Japan) |
| Steve Stricker (USA) | Branden Grace (South Africa) |
| Bill Haas (USA) | Graeme DeLaet (Canada) |
| Hunter Mahan (USA) | Richard Sterne (South Africa) |
| Zach Johnson (USA) | Angel Cabrera (Argentina) |
| Jordan Spieth (USA) *Captain’s Pick* | Marc Leishman (Australia) *Captain’s Pick* |
| Webb Simpson (USA) *Captain’s Pick* | Brendon de Jonge (Zimbabwe) *Captain’s Pick* |
Muirfield Village
Muirfield Village was the vision and construction of Jack Nicklaus, first opening for play in 1974 and since that opening, Nicklaus has constantly tweaked the design to keep it relevant with changes in technology. The course was a beast in the mid-70′s too, playing at just over 7,000 yards, with Roger Maltbie coming away victorious in the inaugural event in 1976 after beating Hale Irwin in a playoff. Maltbie’s winning score of even par, which was 32 strokes better than last place finisher Leonard Thompson, made it obvious to the players that they had to be at their best the week of the Memorial to have any chance. The course has consistently ranked inside the top-25 in America as ranked by Golf Digest, and is currently sitting at number 14 in the rankings released earlier this year.
If the matches get to the end of the course, it will be quite tough. The final three holes are known as one of the most difficult closing stretches on the PGA Tour, especially after the much talked about re-design that Nicklaus performed on the 16th two years ago, which has now made the 215 yard par-3 the hardest hole on the course in each of the last two Memorial Tournament’s. 17 and 18, two medium length par-4′s, were always two of the more difficult on the layout, but the additions to the 16th have given this course some real trouble at the end.
At the Memorial this year, Matt Kuchar came away victorious with a final score of 12-under par.
Suggested Plays
Since we don’t know the team pairings and the individual matchups yet, all we can really look at are some preliminary bets. Here are three of the most available options:
Outright Winner: Team International (+275), Team USA (-350), Draw (+1400)
If I had to pick one here, I’d lean slightly to the International side because there’s simply no value at -350 with the U.S., but the difference in talent is a little too much for me to have much confidence in the Internationals. I don’t think it’s going to be the blowout that many in the media think it’ll be, but I just don’t see the Americans losing, especially with the vast difference in course experience that they bring to Muirfield Village.
Top American Point Earner: Hunter Mahan 12-1
Mahan is currently listed as the seventh option at many sites, which suits me just fine based on a couple of factors. In his professional match play career, he’s 28-13-2 and he’s enjoyed some success at Muirfield Village, finishing inside the top-20 four times. He’s also been playing pretty well as of late, finishing inside the top-25 in each of his last four stroke play events, making it all the way to the end of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Full team odds, minus Mahan, are listed below.
- Tiger Woods (5-1)
- Phil Mickelson (7-1)
- Steve Stricker (8-1)
- Matt Kuchar (9-1)
- Keegan Bradley (10-1)
- Brandt Snedeker (11-1)
- Jason Dufner, Webb Simpson & Zach Johnson (12-1)
- Jordan Spieth (14-1)
- Bill Haas (20-1)
Top International Point Earner: Angel Cabrera and Graham DeLaet (12-1), Branden Grace (14-1)
For the Internationals, I like the above three guys for two reasons: First, they’re at the right price comparatively to the rest of the team, and they are all guys who have gamebreaking, go low ability. I honestly think Cabrera and DeLaet are the guys here that can be the real difference makers this week because if they’re hot, they can play with and against anyone on the American side. Full team odds, outside of these three, are listed below.
- Adam Scott (4-1)
- Jason Day (6-1)
- Charl Schwartzel (7-1)
- Ernie Els (10-1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (11-1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (12-1)
- Richard Sterne (14-1)
- Brendon de Jonge and Marc Leishman (20-1)
Presidents Cup Preview: Match Play Records
Posted on September 30, 2013 1 Comment
Adam Scott at the 2011 Presidents Cup (Courtesy: Hone Morihana)
The Presidents Cup kicks off this week from Muirfield Village in Columbus, Ohio and while it’s not as prestigious as the Ryder Cup, it still provides a lot of quality golf in a team setting, which we only get to see once a year. As always, the competition is between the Americans and the International squad, which is made up of the best players who aren’t from Europe.
Now, match play is a completely different style of play than the regular stroke play events in that it’s a true head-to-head battle. Below are the career records as professionals of each player in the event this week in three different categories:
- WGC & Volvo: These are singles matches that have taken place in the WGC-Accenture Match Play and the European Tour’s Volvo World Match Play. The WGC results go back to the start of the event in 1999, while the Volvo results go back to the 1996 event. Note that Ernie Els won in both 1994 and 1995, but those events are not included as there is no reliable match data.
- Ryder/Pres Singles: Results from the single matches only in both the Ryder and Presidents Cup.
- Ryder/Pres Team: Results from the pairs matches at the Ryder and Presidents Cup.
After that, I’ve totalled up the results for an overall record. Also, I’ve given a brief tidbit about the player’s past form at Muirfield Village in the last category. We’ll start with the Americans and then move to the Internationals.
| Golfer | WGC & Volvo | Ryder/Pres Singles | Ryder/Pres Team | Total | Muirfield |
| Tiger Woods | 35-12 | 9-1-4 | 24-28-2 | 68-41-6 | Five wins |
| Phil Mickelson | 15-11 | 6-9-3 | 26-23-13 | 47-43-16 | 5 top-20’s |
| Brandt Snedeker | 4-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 5 MC & 1 WD |
| Matt Kuchar | 15-3 | 0-3 | 4-2-3 | 19-8-3 | Won in ’13 |
| Steve Stricker | 15-11 | 3-4 | 11-11-1 | 26-26-1 | Won in ’11 |
| Hunter Mahan | 17-6 | 2-2-1 | 9-5-2 | 28-13-2 | 4 top 20’s |
| Bill Haas | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2-1 | 1-6-1 | T4 in ’13 |
| Keegan Bradley | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 4-3 | T50 in ’13 |
| Jason Dufner | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Two MC’s |
| Zach Johnson | 7-9 | 2-3 | 8-6-1 | 17-18-1 | T2 in ’06 |
| Jordan Spieth | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | T63 in ’13 |
| Webb Simpson | 3-2 | 0-2 | 5-2 | 8-6 | 3 MC out of 5 |
| Total | 112-63 | 22-27-8 | 94-81-24 | 228-171-32 | N/A |
| Golfer | WGC & Volvo | Ryder/Pres Singles | Ryder/Pres Team | Total | Muirfield |
| Adam Scott | 14-15 | 2-3 | 8-10-2 | 24-28-2 | Two top-5’s |
| Charl Schwartzel | 7-9 | 1-0 | 2-1-1 | 10-10-1 | T8 in ’13 |
| Ernie Els | 27-18 | 3-4 | 14-12-2 | 44-34-2 | Won in ’04 |
| Angel Cabrera | 14-15 | 2-0-1 | 2-6-2 | 18-21-3 | 2 MC out of 3 |
| Graham DeLaet | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | T21 in ’13 |
| Richard Sterne | 2-5 | N/A | N/A | 2-5 | T36 in ’09 |
| H. Matsuyama | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 2-6 | N/A | N/A | 2-6 | MC in ’12 |
| Jason Day | 8-3 | 0-1 | 1-2-1 | 9-6-1 | T27 in ’09 |
| Branden Grace | 5-3 | N/A | N/A | 5-3 | T25 in ’12 |
| Marc Leishman | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | T41 in ’13 |
| Brendon de Jonge | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | T12 in ’10 |
| Total | 79-74 | 8-8-1 | 27-31-8 | 114-113-9 | N/A |
Looking back at the 2013 PGA Tour season
Posted on September 26, 2013 3 Comments
Tiger Woods (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
The 2013 PGA Tour season has quickly come to an end, and everyone seems to be doing their end of season wrap before the new campaign begins in just over two weeks. I’m sure that at some point towards the end of the 2013 calendar, I’ll end up doing some sort of year in review that covers more than just the PGA Tour, but for now, here are thirty quick thoughts and awards for the 2013 PGA Tour season.
PGA Tour Player Of The Year: Tiger Woods
The tour is supposed to announce their player of the year officially on Friday, but the general consensus is that Tiger will be the recipient for the 11th time in his career, and first since 2009. There’s been some talk that he doesn’t deserve it based on the rules violations or that he didn’t win a major, but the facts make it a pretty easy case for those who have a vote:
- Five wins (Farmers, WGC-Cadillac, Arnold Palmer Invitational, The PLAYERS & WGC-Bridgestone). His next nearest competitors had two.
- His $8.5 million+ earned was over $2 million more than Henrik Stenson, who was the second highest earner.
- Those two facts are made more impressive by the fact that of those who qualified for the FedEx Cup playoffs, only Peter Hanson played less events (15) than Tiger’s 16.
PGA Tour Rookie Of The Year: Jordan Spieth
This will also be announced Friday, but it won’t even be a contest. Spieth finished 7th in the FedEx Cup, won a big tournament and made nearly $4 million despite not starting the season with his tour card. Not bad for a 20-year old.
AdamSarson.com 