Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Betting Preview
Posted on September 24, 2013 Leave a Comment
The OId Course (Courtesy: MrPessimist)
One of the best tournaments of the year happens this week on the European Tour, as three of Scotland’s best courses play host to the 2013 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
2013 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Fact Sheet
- Courses: Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and the Old Course at St. Andrews
- Location: Fife, Scotland
- Yardage: Carnoustie (7412 yards, par 72), Kingsbarns (7150 yards, par 72), Old Course (7279, par 72)
- Defending Champion: Branden Grace
- Five Consensus Favourites: Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Ross Fisher, Paul Casey and Simon Dyson
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 8:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 8:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 8:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Sunday – 8:00 AM to 12:30 PM ET (Golf Channel)
Key Storyline This Week
The key storyline this week really revolves around the completely different nature of the tournament. The Dunhill is something that you don’t see very often in that the event is played across three courses, all of which are considered some of the finest links golf available. The format of the tournament is as follows, courtesy of the official tournament website:
The championship will be played over 72 holes of stroke play with one 18 hole round being played each day. There will be 168 Professionals and 168 amateurs taking part in the event.
Played in teams of two, comprising of one professional and one amateur, the competitors will play each of the three courses in rotation over the first three days with the final round being played over the Old Course at St Andrews. After three rounds the field will be reduced to the Top-60 Professionals and those tying for 60th place and the leading 20 teams.
There will be two competitions running concurrently: An individual tournament for the Professionals and a Team competition which will be of the lower of the professional’s and his amateur partner’s score at each hole.
Amateur men must have a recognised handicap of 18 or better that is verified by the player’s home club. Amateur ladies must have a handicap of 24 or better.
All entries will be subject to approval by the Championship Committee.
It’s the only tournament every year that gets played at the Old Course, and having Carnoustie and Kingsbarns along for the ride isn’t bad either.
Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and The Old Course
Quick notes on the three courses being used this week:
Carnoustie – One of nine courses still in the Open Championship rota, Carnoustie is considered by many to be the toughest championship course in the world. What makes it so tough? Brutal wind and undulating greens provide a serious challenge, even for the best players in the world. A brutal closing stretch from 15-18 awaits and surely those of you who have been watching golf for long enough remember the 1999 Open Championship. Paul Lawrie came away victorious when Jean van de Velde took his infamous barefoot romp inside the Barry Burn on the 18th, costing himself the win despite holding a three shot lead on the tee.
Kingsbarns – By far the newest course of the three, Kingsbarns has only been around since 2001, but it has quickly risen to the top of many “best courses” lists online. The North Sea is visible from every hole on the course, and it should be the easiest of the three in terms of scoring, thanks to wide fairways. However, the greens are tough and there are a ton of bunkers, so accuracy will still be needed. There are few courses that provide a better viewing experience than Kingsbarns, so get a glimpse of it this week during the coverage and you won’t be sorry.
The Old Course at St. Andrews – What can you say about the Old Course? The birthplace of golf is the most recognizable course in the game and will provide a stern challenge, even with the widest fairways that you’ll ever see on a course. The wind will always be a factor and the sheer size of the undulating greens, seven of which are double greens, will require quality shot making to avoid two and three putts. I love Augusta National and many of the courses in the United States, but there’s nothing like the Old Course.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Martin Kaymer: Won the tournament back in 2010, and always seems to play well in the Scotland area. He hasn’t had the best year though, opting to play mostly on the PGA Tour with mixed results. Last played at the Deutsche Bank a few weeks ago where he finished tied for 47th, and only has three top-10 finishes since May.
- Charl Schwartzel: Schwartzel is probably the most talented man in the field, but his track record here isn’t great, with one top-10 and five missed cuts in nine appearances. He had a good run in the FedEx Cup, making it to the Tour Championship with four solid weeks of quality play. Rounds of 79 and 77 on Friday and Saturday at East Lake killed him.
- Ross Fisher: Fisher is listed here because he’s starting to round into form, with back-to-back top-5’s in Switzerland and the Netherlands. Finished as the runner-up here in 2008. His big problem? Too inconsistent from round to round. It’s tough to win when you go 68-77-66-75.
- Paul Casey: Back when Casey was one of the best players in the world, he always loved coming to play St. Andrews, but he’s had a bit of a rough time over the past few years. He finally got back on track at the Irish Open at the end of June, and even though he’s only had one top-20 finish since, his play has been better than the result.
- Simon Dyson: Three top-10’s in his last four appearances at this event, including a win back in 2009. Coming into the tournament in decent form as well, with only three rounds above 72 in his last 32 times on the course.
Suggested Plays
Charl Schwartzel (Best Odds 25-1 at SkyBet)
If you’re going to give me the best player in the field at this kind of price, I’m going to take it every time. Yeah, the track record here isn’t great, but I’m still going to lean on talent here, and like I said above, he’s been playing pretty well in North America.
Ernie Els (Best Odds 33-1 at Betfred)
Els usually plays well in both this event and at St. Andrews in general, so it seems like a decent spot to tip him considering that the field isn’t all that great this week. He’s had an extra week off as he didn’t make it to the Tour Championship and that never hurts either.
Stephen Gallacher (Best Odds 35-1 at Paddy Power)
Gallacher is a former winner of this event, coming away victorious back in 2004, and he’s been playing well in the last few weeks. Finished tied for 9th at the European Masters a few weeks ago in his last start, and was the runner-up to Tommy Fleetwood at the Johnnie Walker, losing in a playoff at the end of August. If he’s healthy, he’s been dealing with a bit of a back injury, he will be there at the end on Sunday.
Louis Oosthuizen (Best Odds 44-1 at BETDAQ)
Speaking of injuries, this is the first tournament back for Louis Oosthuizen since he missed the cut at the John Deere back in July. He’s been dealing with a litany of injuries to his elbow, back and just about everything else that you can name, so it is a bit of a risk to take him in this spot, but I can’t pass him up at this price. He’s going to be using this as his prep for the Presidents Cup in two weeks, so you know he’s motivated. Don’t forget that his runaway win at the 2010 Open was at St. Andrews.
Brooks Koepka (Best Odds 66-1 at Betfair)
Koepka took the Peter Uihlein approach to pro golf after his stint at Florida State, coming to Europe to start his career and it’s paid off for him. The three-time All-American has won four times on the European Challenge Tour, including three times this season, earning his European Tour card for 2014. Missed the cut last week in Italy, but I’m looking at his last pro win, the Scottish Hydro Challenge. He’s comfortable in the area and is loaded with talent, so 66-1 is a steal.
Alexander Noren (Best Odds 70-1 at Betfair)
Taking a look at another injury case, as Noren has struggled with a wrist problem in recent months, but he claims to be healthy at the moment, so I’ll take him at this price. Finished third here last year, and is a tremendous putter and scrambler.
VIDEO: FedEx Cup Rap
Posted on September 23, 2013 Leave a Comment
Don’t have much to say about this, except that the below video might be the worst golf related video online, and that’s saying something. Feast your eyes on the FedEx Cup Rap.
Just stop it.
Henrik Stenson wins the Tour Championship
Posted on September 22, 2013 Leave a Comment
Henrik Stenson (Courtesy: Keith Allison)
Henrik Stenson’s incredible season continued this week, as he was able to dominate the field and East Lake in claiming his second win of the season at the Tour Championship and the $10 million prize for winning the FedEx Cup.
What Happened
No final round lead is truly safe, but Stenson’s four shot advantage certainly felt like a sure thing coming into Sunday. Of course, Stenson did lead at one point by nine shots on Saturday, so with a field of this quality chasing, including the electric Dustin Johnson in the final pairing, Stenson would still have to play well to come away with the victory. That’s pretty much exactly what happened too, as Stenson didn’t do anything to stray from his gameplan of the first three rounds. There were very few drivers in play, as Stenson hits his other clubs far enough that it wasn’t really necessary on a course that can be very punishing if fairways are missed. This allowed Stenson to lead the field in GIRs this week, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering the PGA Tour all year in that stat.
Steve Stricker made a bit of a run, and Jordan Spieth actually cut the lead to one stroke on the back nine, but his approach into the 17th green plugged in the bunker and he dropped a shot. Stenson was able to make a birdie on the par-5 15th and extend his lead back to three shots. After that, it was pretty much over and Stenson wasn’t going to be caught.
Read More
Tour Championship Betting Preview
Posted on September 17, 2013 Leave a Comment
Brandt Snedeker (Courtesy: Keith Allison)
Brandt Snedeker is set to defend his title at the 2013 Tour Championship this week, as a limited field of 30 players will compete for the 2013 FedEx Cup and the $10 million first place prize at East Lake.
2013 Tour Championship Fact Sheet
- Course: East Lake Golf Course
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Yardage: 7,319 yards, par 70
- Defending Champion: Brandt Snedeker
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 12:00 PM to 3:30 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 12:00 PM to 1:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 1:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Key Storyline This Week
We’re in the final week of the 2013 PGA Tour season, and the $10 million FedEx Cup purse is up for grabs this week at East Lake. The FedEx Cup playoffs haven’t exactly been the success that the PGA Tour had hoped it would become when they introduced it a few years ago, but it does add a little bit of excitement to a time in the year when golf isn’t exactly in the forefront of people’s minds. The best players in the world are now playing later into the year, so it does give the tour a little bit of a boost. We started the playoffs with 125 players, and now we’re down to just 30 in the final event, all of whom have a chance to grab that enormous pay cheque, albeit some will have to do more than others. How big of a gap are we talking about? Tiger Woods is ranked first, while Dustin Johnson just barely got into the event in 30th position. Here’s what both guys can do to win the FedEx Cup, courtesy of PGATour.com:
Tiger Woods
- If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
- Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-5 finish
- Can finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
Dustin Johnson
- Wins the TOUR Championship and…
- No. 1 (Tiger Woods) finishes 29th* or worse
- No. 2 (Henrik Stenson) finishes in a three-way tie for 6th or worse
- No. 3 (Adam Scott) finishes T-4 or worse
- No. 4 (Zach Johnson) finishes T-3 or worse
- No. 5 (Matt Kuchar) finishes in a three-way tie for 2nd or worse
- No. 6 (Steve Stricker) finishes T-2 or worse
- *Tie for the FedExCup
You can see the rest of the scenarios at this link. Outside of that, it’s a chance to watch 30 of the best players in the world on one of the more difficult venues on the PGA Tour schedule.
East Lake Golf Course
East Lake was built in 1908 by Tom Bendelow, but has seen many changes through the years. From simple renovations to bigger redesigns, the course has been touched up four times since the original Bendelow design, but it has been a consistent fixture on the PGA Tour, housing this tournament every year since 2004, but also in 1998, 2000 and 2002. It also hosted the 1963 Ryder Cup and the 2001 U.S. Amateur, and is probably most famously known as Bobby Jones’ home course.
At over 7,300 yards and a par-70, East Lake is a beast and has become one of the most difficult courses that the tour visits each year. After Tiger Woods destroyed the course to the tune of 23-under 257, Rees Jones came in to redesign the track, most notably changing to Bermuda grass. In the five years since, the winning scores have been significantly higher, coming in at -7, -9, -8, -8 and -10. The two holes that should get the most attention are a pair of par-3’s.
The island sixth can play at 213 yards, and is usually severely exposed to wind that pushes balls towards the lake. Players can choose to bail out long into the rough or left into the bunker, but both can lead to difficult chips back onto the green.
The 6th at East Lake (Courtesy: EastLakeGolfClub.com)
The closing hole is also a par-3, which many players and fans despise, but it has also typically played as one of the toughest holes on the course. The water isn’t in play, but at 235 yards into the wind, it can be a very long hole. Miss right or left and it’s in one of the greenside bunkers. Even if the approach finds the putting surface, players will find the most severely sloped green on the course, which has led to many three putts over the years.
The 18th at East Lake (Courtesy: EastLakeGolfClub.com)
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Tiger Woods: Like most places, Tiger has a great track record at East Lake, finishing inside the top-20 in each of his starts, and inside the top-10 in seven of eight appearances, including his win back in 2007. Coming off of a decent performance at the BMW which was marred by a bit of an up-and-down finish on Monday.
- Adam Scott: Scott won here back in 2006, but outside of that, he’s seen mixed results. We really shouldn’t be surprised, as that’s pretty much what Scott does, as he’s not the most consistent player out there. Tied for 28th last week at the BMW, and if you believe in geographical significance, remember that he won the Masters in the Georgia area a few months ago.
- Henrik Stenson: It’s hard to believe it with the way he’s played this season, but Stenson is one of eight players in the field this week that has never played East Lake as a professional. That’s usually a bad omen, at least from a gambling standpoint, so I’m staying away. Never had it last week at the BMW, but didn’t play poorly either.
- Phil Mickelson: Wins here in 2000 and 2009, Lefty has been pretty consistent in his performance at East Lake, never finishing worse than 22nd in ten trips to the course. Keep in mind that he’s not exactly on a run of good form here, but as always, you can never be surprised if he just starts to play well, especially at a course where he’s had a good bit of success.
- Justin Rose: Finished as the runner-up to Snedeker last year, and has generally faired pretty well here in the past. In his last 20 rounds, Rose has been over 72 just once, and that was his uncharacteristically bad 77 in the third round of the PGA.
Suggested Plays
Hunter Mahan (Best Odds 20-1 at Paddy Power)
Mahan’s got a good track record at East Lake, including a runner-up finish to Bill Haas, plus he’s coming off of a good finish last week at the BMW where he ended up tied for 4th. He’s had a decent year in 2013, but hasn’t picked up a victory since Houston last year. He’s a pretty streaky player, and you could be catching him on the upswing.
Luke Donald (Best Odds 20-1 at Betfred)
To say Donald has had a bad year would be an understatement, but he looked a lot better last week at Conway Farms. Granted, that could be because he’s a member at the course, but I’m not putting all of the performance on that one fact. His run at East Lake is pretty incredible too, having finished no worse than third in each of the last three years. In 24 career rounds at the course, Donald has been over par just six times.
Brandt Snedeker (Best Odds 22-1 at Stan James)
Snedeker’s been up and down all year, which would explain why he’s actually in tenth place in the FedEx Cup despite a pair of victories on the season. He was solid all week at the BMW, ending up inside the top-10 after an opening round 63. Just 3 of his last 32 rounds have been above 72, and don’t forget that he won the tournament here last year.
Jason Day (Best Odds 23-1 at Betfair)
Day has top-25 finishes in each of the last four events, including a T-4 last week at the BMW. He’s got more talent than pretty much anyone in the field, and he did finish tied for sixth here last year.
Charl Schwartzel (Best Odds 33-1 at Ladbrokes)
Schwartzel has never played East Lake before, which some people would be surprised at, but keep in mind that he’s played a lot of tournaments in Europe over the first part of his career. Tied for eighth last week at Conway Farms, so I’m thinking he could be getting hot again, and when he’s hot, there are few in the world better than him. Slightly concerned about lack of course experience, but love the price of 33-1.
BMW Championship GIFs
Posted on September 16, 2013 1 Comment
The famous Tiger stop.
Zach Johnson came away victorious at Conway Farms today, but as you’ll see, there was plenty of GIFable moments from the week. Here’s the best from the BMW Championship.
The Hunter Mahan ace
The Tiger Woods ball movement penalty
Jason Kokrak doesn’t need this Titleist anymore
Billy Horschel is pretty happy with this holeout
Jim Furyk makes the putt for 59
This official is afraid of the dropping ball
Justin Rose’s practice swing creates a divot, which flies into his ball and makes it move for a one-stroke penalty. Never seen that before.
On the next hole, Rose isn’t anywhere near the fairway
Fan yells right in the middle of Sergio’s backswing
Tiger and Sergio shake hands after their round
Not sure I’ve ever seen Phil flub a chip like this
Nick Watney does it too
Rory Sabbatini doesn’t hit the best bunker shot
Furyk tries to get a bug off of his ball
Henrik Stenson breaks his driver
Birdies on 16 and 17 sealed it for Johnson
Johnson is congratulated by Brandt Snedeker and caddie Damon Green
Zach Johnson wins the BMW Championship
Posted on September 16, 2013 Leave a Comment
Zach Johnson and Damon Green (Courtesy: mattgosselin)
Zach Johnson fired a final round 65 on Monday to win the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms.
What Happened
Due to a massive amount of rain in the Illinois area over the past few days, play at the BMW had to be extended until Monday morning, with several groups still waiting to tee off and begin their final round. Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker would play in the final group, with Johnson and Brandt Snedeker right in front of them, and both Tiger Woods and Charl Schwartzel were lurking just a few shots back in the third to last pairing. Furyk started out playing very steady golf, sitting at 2-under par for his round after a birdie on the 10th hole. Stricker wasn’t as fortunate, playing even through 10 until a double bogey took him out of it on the par-3 11th.
Nick Watney was able to get into the clubhouse at 14-under par after posting a 64, while just in front of the final group, Snedeker was struggling to stay near the top after a 3-over par front nine. Johnson was really solid though, playing the front in 3-under and after another birdie on the par-4 12th, he gave himself a share of the lead. Behind him, Furyk would make three bogeys in a six hole stretch from 11 to 16. Johnson made two long birdie putts on 16 and 17 to carry a three shot edge over Furyk as he went to the 18th tee, and at that point, it was all over. Johnson had his tenth PGA Tour win, and Furyk has to deal with another blown lead in a final round.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Zach Johnson -16
- 2. Nick Watney -14
- 3. Jim Furyk -13
- T4. Jason Day -11
- T4. Luke Donald -11
- T4. Hunter Mahan -11
- T4. Steve Stricker -11
What The Win Means For Johnson
Players with 10+ @PGATOUR wins & a major title since 2004: Tiger, Phil, Vijay, Adam Scott and now @ZachJohnsonPGA
— Justin Ray (@JRayESPNGolf) September 16, 2013
That’s a pretty exclusive list, and the ten wins actually makes him eligible for the Hall of Fame, but I don’t think many people actually think of Johnson in that light, especially when you consider the uproar that took place when Fred Couples got in this year. He’s definitely on the list for most underrated players in PGA Tour history. In the short term, Johnson moves to 4th place in the FedEx Cup and if he’s able to win at East Lake this week, he’ll claim the $10 million first place prize.
Furyk’s 59
Furyk’s second round 59 was the sixth in PGA Tour history, as Furyk joined Al Geiberger, Chip Beck, David Duval, Paul Goydos and Stuart Appleby as members of the exclusive 59 club. It goes without saying that Furyk played a tremendous round of golf and he deserves every word of praise possible for the achievement, but the coverage of the round by the golf media ended up being pretty cringeworthy from at least three angles:
First, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee and Jason Sobel felt the need to compare Furyk’s 59 to the other five, as if there was something wrong with any of the other rounds. Sports fans always feel the need to compare things, but with so few 59’s ever being fired, what’s really the point here? There’s been six ever, all with things that made them special, so let’s just leave it at that.
Secondly, there was some thought that Furyk set out there to prove a point to Fred Couples after he wasn’t chosen for the American President’s Cup team. Furyk was disappointed that he didn’t make the team, but the idea that he went out there to stick it to Couples is pretty ridiculous.
Lastly, some suggested that Couples made a mistake in selecting Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson over Furyk based on the 59. My thoughts on Furyk being selected are well known, and as I tweeted on Friday night, Furyk’s inability to close out events made him a pretty difficult pick. You can’t praise the picks of Couples one day and then criticize him just because one of the guys he left off had a really good day.
What The Loss Means For Furyk
As harsh as it sounds, today was the reason Furyk wasn’t selected for the Presidents Cup team by Couples. The loss now makes him 9 for 23 when leading or sharing a 54-hole lead, which equates to a 39% winning percentage. Among active players with at least ten wins, Furyk is only ahead of Davis Love III in winning percentage. You can say that he got steamrolled by Jason Dufner at the PGA Championship and by Johnson today, but the fact is that he just didn’t play well enough to win and whether that’s because of his age, skill set, or whatever else, he’s just not getting it done. Much like last year, he’s having a good season statistically, but there’s no chance that he’s satisfied with the way that 2013 has played out.
Tiger’s Two Shot Penalty
Another tournament in 2013, and another rules violation for Tiger Woods. On the first hole for Tiger in Friday’s second round, he hit his approach into the trees and went about moving some twigs to get at his ball. You’ll see a little movement when he goes to move the second twig. After that, Tiger played his shot as normal and put down a bogey six. So, what’s the problem? A PGA Tour Entertainment camera man saw the incident and reported it to tournament officials who reviewed it and determined that the ball did in fact move, and should have been a two-shot penalty since Tiger didn’t replace his ball.
After being shown the video, Tiger disagreed with the ruling, saying that the ball didn’t move, it just oscillated. The oscillation implies that the ball returned to its original place on the ground, which is not cause for a penalty. Did he deserve the penalty? Yeah, I think the video clearly shows that he did deserve the two-shot penalty, but I also think he was the closest player to the ball at the time, so he might have seen something that we couldn’t based on how close he was to the situation.
Other Notes
- Notables just sneaking through to East Lake: Dustin Johnson (30th), Luke Donald (29th), Boo Weekley (26th) and Sergio Garcia (25th).
- Notables not moving on to East Lake: Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, Ian Poulter, Angel Cabrera and Ernie Els.
- Great final two rounds of 67-66 by Donald to get into that 29th spot. It’s been a really tough year for him, so maybe this is what gives him a bit of a jump start.
- Rory’s scores this week: 78-77-68-68. His PGA Tour season is done, but he’s committed to several events on the European Tour before the 2014 PGA Tour season begins.
- On Phil Mickelson’s week: Never got it going at all and ended up at 1-under par.
- On Tiger’s week: Got it going, then he didn’t, etc. Still managed to keep the number one spot in the FedEx and will be the favourite at East Lake.
BMW Championship Betting Preview
Posted on September 11, 2013 Leave a Comment
The 17th tee at Conway Farms. (Courtesy: lefty42 at Toronto Golf Nuts)
The PGA Tour heads to a new course this week for the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, as Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois plays host to the 2013 BMW Championship.
2013 BMW Championship Fact Sheet
- Course: Conway Farms Golf Club
- Location: Lake Forest, Illinois
- Yardage: 7,149 yards, par 71
- Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy
- Five Consensus Favourites: Tiger Woods, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose
TV Schedule:
- Thursday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Friday – 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday – 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
- Sunday – 12:00 PM to 1:30 PM ET (Golf Channel) & 1:30 PM to 6:00 PM ET (NBC)
Key Storyline This Week
The continuation of the FedEx Cup is the big storyline, as there’s only two events left before the $10 million first place prize is claimed. With his win two weeks ago, Henrik Stenson overtook Tiger Woods for the number one spot, something which would have seemed crazy about a month ago, but Stenson’s consistent play has kept him near the top of the rankings all season and that win was enough to get him over the hump. Canadian Graham DeLaet was the other big mover from the Deutsche Bank, as he jumped into 5th place, making him by far the most anonymous player inside the upper ranks. When he tees off on Thursday, he’ll be paired with Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson.
With only 70 players in the field, the entry list is long on talent and good form. Only the top-30 will be advancing to next week’s Tour Championship, so some big names will need to play well to get into the final event of the 2013 season. The scenarios suggest that the guys inside the top-19 right now are likely to advance, but the below list is just some of the guys who will need to play well this week to move on:
- Webb Simpson
- Dustin Johnson
- Sergio Garcia
- Zach Johnson
- Charl Schwartzel
- Lee Westwood
- Rickie Fowler
- Bubba Watson
- Rory McIlroy
- Graeme McDowell
- Ian Poulter
- Luke Donald
- Angel Cabrera
- Ernie Els
Conway Farms Golf Club
As mentioned above, Conway Farms is completely new to the PGA Tour schedule, so it’s pretty difficult to get a read on how the course is going to play. The Tom Fazio design was opened in August of 1991, and at points can apparently play like two completely different courses. Many holes are tree-lined, giving it the feel of a standard American golf course, but others are completely open and contain tons of fescue, which will make it seem like the players are teeing it up at an Open Championship venue. Two drivable par-4’s are on the layout, and the par-5’s should all be reachable in two shots, save for maybe the 600-yard 8th, and that includes the 570-yard 18th, which could lead to some drama in the closing stages of Sunday’s final round.
Thoughts On The Favourites
- Tiger Woods: Finished tied for 65th at the Deutsche Bank and lost that number one spot to Stenson in the FedEx Cup, but he remains the favourite for the obvious reason that he’s the best player in the field. Keep in mind that Tiger is a severe creature of habit, and he rarely wins on courses that he sees for the first time, at least recently.
- Henrik Stenson: Coming off of the win at the Deutsche Bank, Stenson is probably the hottest player in the game right now, as the victory gave him his fifth top-3 finish in six events. Pulling off back-to-back wins is insanely difficult though, so expecting Stenson to do that would be a tall task, especially considering that he’s never played the course.
- Adam Scott: Scott was never a factor two weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank after winning the Barclays, but that’s not a huge surprise. For as much talent as Scott has, he’s not the most consistent player out there. I would expect a slight bounce back here though, as the thought process is that the players will be able to score here this week, and few can go as low as Scott.
- Phil Mickelson: Speaking of inconsistency, Mickelson was and still is the king of it. His spot in the Tour Championship next week is pretty much secure, so I don’t think he has to worry too much about that, so his all-out mentality shouldn’t change much. He could win this week or finish last, and realistically, neither would surprise me.
- Justin Rose: Rose has had one round above 72 since the Open Championship, and that came in his uncharacteristic blow up 77 in the third round of the PGA, so he’s in a good spot at the moment. Few players can adjust to a course quicker than Rose, so I don’t think the lack of time at Conway is going to pose a problem. It’s also worth noting that he won his last tournament in the Illinois area, which was this event two years ago at Cog Hill.
Suggested Plays
Justin Rose (Best Odds 21-1 at BETDAQ)
Taking Rose for all of the reasons mentioned above. I think he’s ready for his first win since triumphing at Merion.
Rory McIlroy (Best Odds 22-1 at Stan James)
I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but he’s playing much better in recent weeks and for the first time all year, he’s seemingly flying under the radar. He needs to play well to move on to the Tour Championship, so that might push him a little bit. Remember that outside of Tiger, there’s no one in the field who has more talent.
Sergio Garcia (Best Odds 43-1 at BETDAQ)
Sergio played well at the Deutsche Bank before a Sunday blow up cost him the win, but he still ended up in a tie for 4th place, so there is some good form here. Much like Rose, Sergio is usually very quick to adjust to new courses and there are very few players out there who are smarter with course management than him. At around 40-1, there’s tremendous value here.
Luke Donald (Best Odds 51-1 at Betfair)
The tough season for Donald continued yesterday, as he made the tough decision to fire his long-time coach and friend Pat Goss, replacing him with Chuck Cook. Goss and Donald go back to Donald’s days at Northwestern, and Goss has been the only coach the former world number one has had since turning pro. Cook was actually referred by Sean Foley, who Donald approached originally, but Foley said that he didn’t think he had the time with the rest of his clients all needing attention as well.
So, why Donald this week considering all that is going on? Conway Farms is his home course, and he knows it better than anyone in the field this week, so I’m willing to take a chance at this kind of price. It’s not a guarantee that it’ll work out, as we saw with Phil Mickelson at the Barclays a few weeks ago, but we’re getting good value here on a player who is simply too good to keep playing like this.
Ian Poulter (Best Odds 52-1 at BETDAQ)
We almost cashed on Poulter a couple of weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank, and his play vaulted him into this tournament, but he’ll need another good week to get into the Tour Championship. He’s a streaky player, so I’m hoping his good form carries over, but I am slightly concerned about the extra week off in between tournaments.
Charles Howell III (Best Odds 270-1 at BETDAQ)
Howell’s my dartboard pick of the week, and it’s really just based on his ability at this kind of price. Howell will always be one of the better ball strikers in the field, so at 270-1, he’s definitely worth a shot.
Spieth, Simpson, Leishman and de Jonge make the Presidents Cup
Posted on September 5, 2013 1 Comment
Jordan Spieth (Courtesy: Zimbio.com)
The teams for the 2013 Presidents Cup are now set, as Team USA captain Fred Couples and International captain Nick Price have made their two additional picks to compliment their ten qualified players. Couples selected Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson, while Price went with Australian Marc Leishman and fellow Zimbabwean Brendon de Jonge. Full teams are listed below:
| Team USA | Team International |
|---|---|
| Tiger Woods (USA) | Adam Scott (Australia) |
| Brandt Snedeker (USA) | Jason Day (Australia) |
| Phil Mickelson (USA) | Charl Schwartzel (South Africa) |
| Matt Kuchar (USA) | Ernie Els (South Africa) |
| Jason Dufner (USA) | Louis Oosthuizen (South Africa) |
| Keegan Bradley (USA) | Hideki Matsuyama (Japan) |
| Steve Stricker (USA) | Branden Grace (South Africa) |
| Bill Haas (USA) | Graeme DeLaet (Canada) |
| Hunter Mahan (USA) | Richard Sterne (South Africa) |
| Zach Johnson (USA) | Angel Cabrera (Argentina) |
| Jordan Spieth (USA) *Captain’s Pick* | Marc Leishman (Australia) *Captain’s Pick* |
| Webb Simpson (USA) *Captain’s Pick* | Brendon de Jonge (Zimbabwe) *Captain’s Pick* |
On paper, this looks like a blowout for the Americans, but realistically, these guys are all so good that you shouldn’t be surprised if the International side comes away with the win at Muirfield Village in October. Now, captain’s picks are always a hot debate topic, and you saw why at the Ryder Cup last year when American captain Davis Love went with Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk, both of whom ended up being big contributors to the American collapse at Medinah. So, let’s take a quick look at the theories behind match play selections as well as why these four were selected and others weren’t.
Team Match Play Theory
When you’re talking about team match play, the generally accepted theory is that captain’s should build their teams and pairings around players who are opposites on the course. This usually means playing a guy who bombs the ball but has trouble hitting the fairway (see Mickelson, Phil) with a guy like Steve Stricker, who doesn’t stray too far from the middle. Playing good putters with bad putters is also usually done to minimize the damage on the greens.
The Selections
Ten players for each side were already selected for the captains, with the Americans using a point system and the Internationals going based on their top 10 players from the Official World Golf Rankings. Let’s take a look at the selections for Nick Price’s International side.
Marc Leishman
WHO: If you’re looking for an American equivalent, at least in terms of play style, look at Matt Kuchar. Leishman’s a guy who doesn’t really do anything spectacularly well, but he doesn’t do anything poorly either. Currently ranked 59th in the world, with eight career professional wins and one on the PGA Tour at last year’s Travelers. It’s his first appearance in the Presidents Cup.
WHY: Leishman had a great run starting in April at the Masters when he played in Sunday’s final group with Adam Scott, and I honestly think that’s exactly why Price took him. Since the Byron Nelson in May, he’s played in nine events with his best finish coming at the PGA Championship where he ended up tied for 12th.
WHERE: In 18 rounds at Muirfield Village, Leishman has only posted two rounds in the 60’s.
Brendon de Jonge
WHO: The hefty de Jonge is frequently in the discussion of best player on the PGA Tour without a win, but he’s been able to hang on to his tour card because of his level of consistency. He’s currently ranked 70th in the world, and is typically known as one of the better ball strikers on the PGA Tour. He’s actually made the most birdies of anyone on the PGA Tour in 2013 with 371.
WHY: There are already people suggesting that Price made this pick in the same way that Greg Norman selected fellow Aussie Adam Scott a few years ago, which was basically done as a favour to someone who didn’t deserve to be here. Most of that is probably because those people don’t know who de Jonge is, but believe me, he’s a worthy selection, especially when you consider the inconsistent nature of the rest of the International squad.
WHERE: de Jonge hasn’t had a ton of success at Muirfield Village either, with his best finish being a T-12 in 2010. Has posted two rounds in the 60’s in 14 rounds played.
Who Missed Out?
- Tim Clark: Of everyone who didn’t get in, Clark was the most surprising. Price suggested that it was because he didn’t have enough length off the tee, but you’d think that a guy who is as consistently in the middle as Clark would be worth a pick. If it were me, I would have taken Clark over Leishman.
The Americans
Jordan Spieth
WHO: If you’ve been paying attention to the PGA Tour at any point this season, you’ve seen Spieth at the top of most leaderboards. He started the season with no status on the PGA Tour, but ended up getting it officially with a dramatic playoff victory at the John Deere. Since then, he was the runner-up at the Wyndham and was T-4 last week at the Deutsche Bank.
WHY: He’s one of the hottest players in the world, which is probably what pushed him over the top in the mind of Fred Couples, but that’s not the only reason. The 20-year old has an ability to go low that few players possess, and will have an enthusiasm that should inject a little bit of life into an American team that outside of Keegan Bradley, can be about as energetic as a fire hydrant.
WHERE: Played Muirfield Village for the first time this year, and struggled with scores of 72-73-82-68 to finish tied for 62nd.
Webb Simpson
WHO: The winner of last year’s U.S. Open hasn’t had the kind of season that he would have wanted, but there was pretty much no chance that Couples was leaving him off the team. He would have been on it automatically if Zach Johnson didn’t hit a 26 footer on the 72nd hole on Monday at the Deutsche Bank, so it’s not like the selection was a reach.
WHY: To be honest, I’m pretty sure Couples had this decision made weeks ago and when Steve Stricker played well enough to qualify on his own, the decision was even easier for him. Simpson has a career 2-5 record in professional match play, but luckily for him, he won’t have to run into Ian Poulter on Sunday this time around.
WHERE: Finished tied for 7th at Muirfield Village back in 2011, but also has three missed cuts and a T-48. He’s only been in the 60’s once in fourteen career rounds.
Who Missed Out?
- Jim Furyk: Furyk’s record at this event is very good, and Couples admitted that he really wanted to pick Furyk, but he made the right call here in my opinion. Furyk’s performance at the Ryder Cup last year and his inability to close anything out over the past few years makes it difficult to trust him. Furyk’s biggest asset has always been his consistency, but when you look at the above list, they have enough guys who do what he does already, only they do it better than Furyk at this point in his career.
- Dustin Johnson: Without a doubt, Johnson is the most talented guy on the cut list, but since winning the opening event of 2013, he’s been all over the place. With the makeup of the American team, I think he’s a better fit than Simpson if he’s playing well, but he really isn’t right now, so I get leaving him off.
- Rickie Fowler: Fowler was on a pretty decent run until getting cut at the Deutsche Bank, but I don’t think he had much of a chance after the run Spieth went on in the last few weeks. Still think he’s a great match play candidate in a team format because his blowups don’t usually equate to much other than a single lost hole.
- Bubba Watson: Watson has had two top-10 finishes all year, so let’s just move on.
- Billy Horschel: Horschel had no chance at this, but I put him on this list because he’s got the type of personality that can be really effective at this kind of event, but his results just haven’t been there. Since he finished tied for fourth at the U.S. Open, his best finish was a tie for 30th at the Greenbrier.
The 2013 Presidents Cup will be played from October 3rd to 6th at Muirfield Village.
Henrik Stenson finally wins in 2013
Posted on September 2, 2013 Leave a Comment
Henrik Stenson (Courtesy: TourProGolfClubs.com)
Henrik Stenson has had an impressive 2013 season, but coming into this week, he hadn’t been able to close out a victory. That all changed on Sunday, as he was able to outlast a quality field and the weather at TPC Boston to win the Deutsche Bank Championship.
What Happened
Stenson entered the day two shots back of the lead held by Sergio Garcia, but a front nine 39 by Garcia combined with Stenson going out in 33 gave the Swede a sizable advantage over Garcia. Tee times had already been moved up earlier in the day due to the threat of thunderstorms, and play had to be halted with the final group on the sixth with those storms rolling into the Norton, Massachusetts area. When play resumed, Stenson kept firing with two birdies on the back nine, and even though there were a few challengers, no one ever got within two shots, giving Stenson his first win of 2013, third on the PGA Tour and fourteenth as a professional.
Final Leaderboard
- 1. Henrik Stenson -22
- 2. Steve Stricker -20
- 3. Graham DeLaet -18
- T4. Jordan Spieth -17
- T4. Matt Kuchar -17
- T4. Kevin Stadler -14
- T4. Sergio Garcia -14
What The Win Means For Stenson
The win vaults Stenson to first place in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of Tiger Woods, who finished well back at 4-under par. Outside of that, it’s Stenson’s first win since November of last year in South Africa, and his first on the PGA Tour since the 2009 PLAYERS. He’s probably had the best year of anyone without a win on the PGA Tour, with six top-10 finishes and another two on the European Tour. This win combined with the kind of year he’s had has put himself in the prime position to take home the $10 million FedEx Cup prize.
He’s gone through quite a lot in his career, from being one of the best players in the world around that PLAYERS Championship win to being so bad that he nearly quit the game entirely, so I’m sure this win means a lot to him personally as well knowing what he’s been through. Just over two years ago, Stenson was ranked 130th in the world and wasn’t qualified for the PGA Championship, so he stayed at home in Sweden and played in his club championship, which he didn’t end up winning, finishing as the runner-up. That’s a long way to come in two years.
FedEx Cup Movement
As I mentioned in my betting preview a few days ago, there was likely to be some movement from outside the top-70 to get guys into the BMW in a couple of weeks, and that’s exactly what happened. Kevin Stadler, Brian Davis, Ian Poulter, Marc Leishman, Ernie Els, Brendan Steele and Nicholas Thompson all ended up advancing to the BMW after being outside of the top-70 coming into the tournament.
Tiger Woods
People always expect Tiger to play well and based on the way he’s played in 2013, it’s justified on some level, but realistically, it won’t happen every week. This was one of those weeks where it just seemed like nothing went his way. Tee to green was good, then it was bad. The same thing happened with his scrambling and short game. His putter was mostly off, but TPC Boston tends to have some very difficult greens. With the week off coming up, he’ll have some extra time to work on his game and ensure that his back is ready to go for the BMW. Also, we saw his son Charlie a few weeks ago with him on the course, and this week we got to see his daughter Sam. Here they are on Sunday after the horn sounded for the rain delay, both wearing red and black.
Other Notes
- Notables to miss the cut: Bill Haas, Rickie Fowler and Tim Clark.
- Other notable finishes: Ian Poulter and Jason Dufner (T9), Jason Day and Hunter Mahan (T13), Justin Rose and Keegan Bradley (T16), Ernie Els (T20), Charl Schwartzel (T22), Dustin Johnson, Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson (T27), Nick Watney (T35), Phil Mickelson and Luke Donald (T41), Rory McIlroy, Brandt Snedeker, Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell (T47), Adam Scott and Webb Simpson (T53), Tiger Woods (T65) and Bubba Watson (T67).
- Sergio never looked comfortable out there right from the outset. Not sure what that’s about, but that’s what it looked like to me. This makes him 3-of-11 when trying to close out a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, which is not very good at all. And yes, I do still think he’ll win a major championship.
- Poulter had a tough finish on 18 today, ending off his tournament with a double bogey. Former player and current Golf Channel analyst Steve Flesch decided to take a shot at Poulter via Twitter, which he has since deleted but you can still see in one of his follower’s replies:
“@Steve_Flesch: Tough finish for Poults. Not to worry all, the photo of him lounging on his private jet will soon follow. #giveusabreak”
— Duncan French (@Teamfrench23) September 2, 2013
I know Poulter’s not the most popular guy when it comes to the American media, but coming from an allegedly neutral observer of the game, Flesch’s comments are pretty low class. - Another good week for DeLaet, who moved into the 5th spot in the FedEx Cup, and also guaranteed himself a spot on Nick Price’s International President’s Cup team.
- Speaking of the President’s Cup, Steve Stricker’s runner-up finish got him onto the American team captained by Fred Couples. Zach Johnson also hit a 26 footer for birdie on his final hole of the day to sneak into 10th place on the team, guaranteeing himself a spot. The putt knocked out his playing partner Webb Simpson, who will now have to rely on Couples using one of his captain’s picks in order to get on the team. Assuming Jordan Spieth has one of those, there’s only one left and it’s going to be a tough decision for Couples.
VIDEO: Rickie Fowler is Dick Fowler, P.I.
Posted on August 28, 2013 Leave a Comment
24-year old Rickie Fowler is one of the game’s most popular players and thanks to Farmers Insurance, he now has an alter ego. In a new series of videos, Fowler plays a Tom Selleck-esque character, protecting the game as Dick Fowler, P.I. The first two videos in the series were released early this morning, with the first seeing Fowler punish a guy for talking on the phone during another player’s backswing:
The second one has Fowler forcing a player to eat his divot after failing to replace it in the fairway:
AdamSarson.com 